ScoreProb
I-League India Round 2 2026

Bengaluru United vs Mohammedan

Bengaluru United Home · Elo 1,524
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mohammedan Away · Elo 1,423
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bengaluru United win
Bengaluru United winPick
43.1%
Draw
26.0%
Mohammedan win
31.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.8%
No48.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.7%
Under 2.539.3%

How much we know

Bengaluru United history11 matches
Mohammedan history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Bengaluru United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bengaluru United are rated 101 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,524 against 1,423. On rating alone Bengaluru United would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Bengaluru United score far more

    1.91 goals a game over 11 matches for Bengaluru United, against 0.95 over 42 for Mohammedan.

  • Bengaluru United concede fewer

    Bengaluru United concede 0.82 a game, Mohammedan 2.07.

  • Mohammedan games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Bengaluru United matches, against 57% for Mohammedan. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bengaluru United
Mohammedan@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1524.1
ELO
1422.8
11
ELO · Matches
42
1524.1
Current Team ELO
1422.8
1422.8
Current Opponent ELO
1524.1
101.3
Current ELO Difference
-101.3
0.64
Expected score
0.36
11
History Matches
42
0.13
Residual Mean
-0.10
54.77
Overperformance
42.97
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.50
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.70
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
2.05
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
11
Matches
42
1.73
PPG
0.71
45.5%
Win rate
16.7%
36.4%
Draw rate
21.4%
18.2%
Loss rate
61.9%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
Venue performance10 signals
100
7
Matches
25
2.00
PPG
0.60
57.1%
Win rate
12.0%
28.6%
Draw rate
24.0%
14.3%
Loss rate
64.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
44.0%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
7
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.91
Goals for per game
0.95
81.8%
Scoring rate
54.8%
63.6%
BTTS rate
47.6%
2.71
Goals for per game
0.84
100.0%
Scoring rate
48.0%
85.7%
BTTS rate
48.0%
11
History Matches
42
1.91
Goals Mean
0.95
1.98
Goals Std
1.21
81.8%
Scored 1+ rate
54.8%
36.4%
Scored 2+ rate
23.8%
27.3%
Scored 3+ rate
9.5%
2.71
Venue Goals Mean
0.84
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.82
Goals against per game
2.07
72.7%
Conceding rate
88.1%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.28
85.7%
Conceding rate
92.0%
11
History Matches
42
0.82
Conceded Mean
2.07
0.57
Conceded Std
1.52
9.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
61.9%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.0%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
11.9%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
45.2%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
52.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
11.9%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
45.2%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
52.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
11.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
11
History Matches
42
0.94
Result entropy
0.84
2.19
Goal Difference Std
2.18
5.68
Stability score
15.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
10
Eligible Matches
42
8
Lead Matches
6
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.72
0
Trailing Matches
23
—
Non-loss rate
13.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
10
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.36
0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.07
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
175.0
Rest days
73.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
4
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
7
Normal Rest History Matches
19
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.58
3
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.79
0.75
Portability PPG Range
2.14
57.14
Portability Score
38.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
11
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO101.3
PPG1.01
GF0.96
GA-1.25
PPG1.40
PPG-0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-31
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.52
History Matches-31
Goals Mean0.96
Goals Std0.76
Scored 1+ rate27.1%
Scored 2+ rate12.6%
Scored 3+ rate17.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.87
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std1.03
History Matches-31
Conceded Mean-1.25
Conceded Std-0.94
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.53
Conceded 3+ rate-0.31
Venue Conceded Mean-1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.75
History Matches-31
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score-10.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.27
Eligible Matches-32
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-23
Halftime Coverage Matches-32
First Half Goals For Mean0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.41
Portability PPG Range-1.39
Portability Score18.23
Rest days102.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.42
Long Rest History Matches-15
Long Rest Points Per Match0.83
Current Team ELO101.3
Current Opponent ELO-101.3
Current ELO Difference202.5
Expected score0.28
History Matches-31
Residual Mean0.24
Overperformance11.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bengaluru United

L
Dempo1–0Bengaluru United1 Nov · away
Pick: Dempo 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Mohammedan

L
Mohammedan0–1Shillong Lajong31 Oct · home
Pick: Mohammedan 48% · missed
W
Measurers2–3Mohammedan25 Aug · away
Pick: Measurers 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bengaluru United and Mohammedan meet in I-League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Bengaluru United win 43.1%, draw 26.0%, Mohammedan win 31.0%. The pick is Bengaluru United win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.7%. Both teams to score: 51.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.