ScoreProb
I-League India Round 2 2026

Shillong Lajong vs Chanmari

Shillong Lajong Home · Elo 1,551
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chanmari Away · Elo 1,484
Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Shillong Lajong win
Shillong Lajong winPick
54.4%
Draw
20.9%
Chanmari win
24.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.2%
No40.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.7%
Under 2.532.3%

How much we know

Shillong Lajong history26 matches
Chanmari history17 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Shillong Lajong are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Shillong Lajong are rated 68 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,551 against 1,484. On rating alone Shillong Lajong would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Shillong Lajong score more

    1.92 goals a game over 26 matches for Shillong Lajong, against 1.65 over 17 for Chanmari.

  • Defences are close

    Shillong Lajong concede 1.54 a game, Chanmari 1.59.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of Shillong Lajong matches, against 65% for Chanmari. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Shillong Lajong
Chanmari@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1551.2
ELO
1483.6
26
ELO · Matches
17
1551.2
Current Team ELO
1483.6
1483.6
Current Opponent ELO
1551.2
67.52
Current ELO Difference
-67.52
0.60
Expected score
0.40
26
History Matches
17
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.06
54.72
Overperformance
47.08
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.80
2.40
Goals for per game
1.00
0.60
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
0.70
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.01
Overall performance9 signals
90
26
Matches
17
1.65
PPG
1.12
46.2%
Win rate
29.4%
26.9%
Draw rate
23.5%
26.9%
Loss rate
47.1%
88.5%
Over 1.5 rate
88.2%
65.4%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
42.3%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
11
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.10
54.5%
Win rate
30.0%
36.4%
Draw rate
20.0%
9.1%
Loss rate
50.0%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
72.7%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
54.5%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.16
11
History Matches
10
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.92
Goals for per game
1.65
73.1%
Scoring rate
70.6%
53.8%
BTTS rate
58.8%
2.64
Goals for per game
2.10
81.8%
Scoring rate
80.0%
63.6%
BTTS rate
70.0%
26
History Matches
17
1.92
Goals Mean
1.65
1.66
Goals Std
1.91
73.1%
Scored 1+ rate
70.6%
53.8%
Scored 2+ rate
47.1%
34.6%
Scored 3+ rate
11.8%
2.64
Venue Goals Mean
2.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.54
Goals against per game
1.59
69.2%
Conceding rate
82.4%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.90
63.6%
Conceding rate
90.0%
26
History Matches
17
1.54
Conceded Mean
1.59
1.50
Conceded Std
1.09
46.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.9%
19.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.6%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.90
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
26
History Matches
17
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
2.34
Goal Difference Std
2.55
3.20
Stability score
3.96
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
26
Eligible Matches
17
10
Lead Matches
6
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.72
8
Trailing Matches
4
25.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
26
Halftime Coverage Matches
17
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
1.23
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.12
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
167.0
Rest days
171.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
16
Normal Rest History Matches
10
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
7
Long Rest History Matches
5
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.75
Portability PPG Range
0.26
57.14
Portability Score
79.25
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
26
Clean History Matches
17
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO67.52
PPG0.54
GF0.28
GA-0.05
PPG0.90
PPG1.40
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate13.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate26.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches9
Goals Mean0.28
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate2.5%
Scored 2+ rate6.8%
Scored 3+ rate22.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.74
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std0.41
Clean-sheet rate13.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate1.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.72
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.09
History Matches9
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score-0.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.19
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate3.3%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.24
Portability PPG Range0.49
Portability Score-22.10
Rest days-4.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.45
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.49
Current Team ELO67.52
Current Opponent ELO-67.52
Current ELO Difference135.0
Expected score0.19
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance7.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Shillong Lajong

W
Mohammedan0–1Shillong Lajong31 Oct · away
Pick: Mohammedan 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Chanmari

No earlier results with our pick yet

About this match

Shillong Lajong and Chanmari meet in I-League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Shillong Lajong win 54.4%, draw 20.9%, Chanmari win 24.7%. The pick is Shillong Lajong win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.7%. Both teams to score: 59.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.