ScoreProb
Second League Bulgaria Round 15 2026

Beroe vs Pirin Blagoevgrad

Beroe Home · Elo 1,460
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pirin Blagoevgrad Away · Elo 1,407
Stadion Beroe, Stara Zagora Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Beroe win
Beroe winPick
68.1%
Draw
15.1%
Pirin Blagoevgrad win
16.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.4%
No51.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.3%
Under 2.545.7%

How much we know

Beroe history69 matches
Pirin Blagoevgrad history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.1%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Beroe are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Beroe are rated 53 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,460 against 1,407. On rating alone Beroe would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.96 goals a game over 69 matches for Beroe, against 1.05 over 57 for Pirin Blagoevgrad.

  • Beroe concede fewer

    Beroe concede 1.33 a game, Pirin Blagoevgrad 1.54.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Beroe matches, against 51% for Pirin Blagoevgrad. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Beroe
Pirin Blagoevgrad
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1460.0
ELO
1407.3
69
ELO · Matches
57
1460.0
Current Team ELO
1407.3
1407.3
Current Opponent ELO
1460.0
52.73
Current ELO Difference
-52.73
0.58
Expected score
0.42
69
History Matches
57
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.08
48.38
Overperformance
44.19
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.60
0.80
Goals against per game
3.80
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.40
1.40
Goals for per game
0.70
1.30
Goals against per game
2.70
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.85
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.70
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.95
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
2.84
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
57
1.09
PPG
1.07
26.1%
Win rate
28.1%
30.4%
Draw rate
22.8%
43.5%
Loss rate
49.1%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
64.9%
49.3%
Over 2.5 rate
50.9%
20.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.1%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
28
1.24
PPG
0.79
32.4%
Win rate
21.4%
27.0%
Draw rate
14.3%
40.5%
Loss rate
64.3%
70.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
60.7%
21.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
37
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.96
Goals for per game
1.05
56.5%
Scoring rate
61.4%
40.6%
BTTS rate
45.6%
1.11
Goals for per game
1.00
56.8%
Scoring rate
60.7%
35.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.40
Goals for per game
0.60
60.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
20.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
69
History Matches
57
0.96
Goals Mean
1.05
1.13
Goals Std
1.19
56.5%
Scored 1+ rate
61.4%
24.6%
Scored 2+ rate
26.3%
10.1%
Scored 3+ rate
8.8%
1.11
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.54
65.2%
Conceding rate
70.2%
1.27
Goals against per game
1.89
62.2%
Conceding rate
78.6%
0.80
Goals against per game
3.80
60.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
69
History Matches
57
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.54
1.38
Conceded Std
1.48
37.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.6%
17.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.8%
1.27
Venue Conceded Mean
1.89
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
43.5%
Failed-to-score rate
38.6%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
43.2%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
43.5%
Failed-to-score rate
38.6%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
43.2%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
57
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
1.95
Goal Difference Std
1.90
2.17
Stability score
5.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
55
14
Lead Matches
15
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.73
17
Trailing Matches
16
29.4%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.96
Rest days
76.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
26
0.90
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.04
24
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.54
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.04
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.80
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.20
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.66
0.88
Portability PPG Range
1.44
60.28
Portability Score
43.02
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO52.73
PPG0.02
GF-0.10
GA-0.21
PPG1.80
PPG0.46
PPG1.80
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Failed-to-score rate4.9%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate16.4%
Failed-to-score rate4.0%
History Matches12
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.59
History Matches12
Conceded Mean-0.21
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.61
History Matches12
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score-2.89
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.35
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate4.8%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate16.9%
Trailing Win Rate5.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.80
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.33
Portability PPG Range-0.56
Portability Score17.26
Rest days-2.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.60
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.51
Current Team ELO52.73
Current Opponent ELO-52.73
Current ELO Difference105.5
Expected score0.15
History Matches12
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Beroe

L
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa2–0Beroe30 Oct · away
Pick: Beroe 38% · missed
W
Beroe3–1Rilski Sportist23 Oct · home
Pick: Beroe 47% · hit
L
Beroe0–3Ludogorets17 Oct · home
Pick: Ludogorets 49% · hit
W
FK Minyor Pernik1–2Beroe4 Oct · away
Pick: Beroe 40% · hit
D
Etar Veliko Tarnovo2–2Beroe29 Aug · away
Pick: Etar Veliko Tarnovo 51% · missed

Pirin Blagoevgrad

L
Pirin Blagoevgrad0–2Etar Veliko Tarnovo30 Oct · home
Pick: Etar Veliko Tarnovo 64% · hit
L
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa2–0Pirin Blagoevgrad23 Oct · away
Pick: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 63% · hit
L
Pirin Blagoevgrad1–4Hebar 191817 Oct · home
Pick: Hebar 1918 46% · hit
L
Pirin Blagoevgrad0–3Chernomorets 1919 Burgas29 Aug · home
Pick: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Beroe and Pirin Blagoevgrad meet in Second League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Beroe, Stara Zagora. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Beroe win 68.1%, draw 15.1%, Pirin Blagoevgrad win 16.7%. The pick is Beroe win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.3%. Both teams to score: 48.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.