ScoreProb
Second League Bulgaria Round 15 2026

Ludogorets II vs Nesebar

Ludogorets II Home · Elo 1,537
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nesebar Away · Elo 1,630
PFC Ludogorets 1945 Training Centre, Razgrad Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nesebar win
Ludogorets II win
34.8%
Draw
26.6%
Nesebar winPick
38.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.1%
No45.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.0%
Under 2.544.0%

How much we know

Ludogorets II history63 matches
Nesebar history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Nesebar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nesebar are rated 93 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,630 against 1,537. On rating alone Nesebar would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Nesebar score far more

    1.44 goals a game over 63 matches for Ludogorets II, against 2.23 over 61 for Nesebar.

  • Nesebar concede fewer

    Ludogorets II concede 1.08 a game, Nesebar 0.97.

  • Nesebar games more often go over 2.5 goals

    41% of Ludogorets II matches, against 61% for Nesebar. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ludogorets II
Nesebar
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1537.2
ELO
1630.3
63
ELO · Matches
61
1537.2
Current Team ELO
1630.3
1630.3
Current Opponent ELO
1537.2
-93.07
Current ELO Difference
93.07
0.37
Expected score
0.63
63
History Matches
61
0.03
Residual Mean
0.11
52.58
Overperformance
58.25
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
2.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.20
1.30
Goals for per game
3.60
1.10
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.60
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.62
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.55
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.52
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
61
1.46
PPG
1.87
39.7%
Win rate
55.7%
27.0%
Draw rate
19.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
24.6%
73.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.0%
41.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.7%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
37.7%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
29
1.94
PPG
1.66
57.6%
Win rate
48.3%
21.2%
Draw rate
20.7%
21.2%
Loss rate
31.0%
87.9%
Over 1.5 rate
69.0%
57.6%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
42.4%
Over 3.5 rate
27.6%
2.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
33
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
2.23
63.5%
Scoring rate
75.4%
42.9%
BTTS rate
44.3%
2.15
Goals for per game
1.48
78.8%
Scoring rate
69.0%
54.5%
BTTS rate
48.3%
0.80
Goals for per game
2.40
60.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
63
History Matches
61
1.44
Goals Mean
2.23
1.61
Goals Std
2.19
63.5%
Scored 1+ rate
75.4%
41.3%
Scored 2+ rate
52.5%
17.5%
Scored 3+ rate
36.1%
2.15
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.08
Goals against per game
0.97
68.3%
Conceding rate
57.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.07
69.7%
Conceding rate
69.0%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
63
History Matches
61
1.08
Conceded Mean
0.97
1.03
Conceded Std
1.14
27.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.6%
9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.2%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
42.6%
36.5%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
42.6%
36.5%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
42.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
61
0.99
Result entropy
0.90
2.10
Goal Difference Std
2.67
1.11
Stability score
9.83
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
39
17
Lead Matches
12
94.1%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.94
13
Trailing Matches
8
15.4%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.98
Rest days
76.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
36
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.14
24
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.42
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.76
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
1.80
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.80
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.84
1.45
Portability PPG Range
2.18
46.07
Portability Score
37.38
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-93.07
PPG-0.41
GF-0.79
GA0.11
PPG-0.40
PPG0.28
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate11.9%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.79
Goals Std-0.58
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.61
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.11
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate2.4%
Conceded 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.61
History Matches2
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.57
Stability score-8.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.99
Eligible Matches22
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate2.5%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches22
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.20
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.25
Portability PPG Range-0.73
Portability Score8.69
Rest days-2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.78
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Current Team ELO-93.07
Current Opponent ELO93.07
Current ELO Difference-186.1
Expected score-0.26
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.67
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ludogorets II

D
Sportist Svoge1–1Ludogorets II2 Nov · away
Pick: Sportist Svoge 45% · missed
W
Ludogorets II5–1Dobrudzha27 Oct · home
Pick: Ludogorets II 43% · hit
W
Montana2–3Ludogorets II13 Oct · away
Pick: Montana 45% · missed
D
Ludogorets II1–1Hebar 191829 Aug · home
Pick: Ludogorets II 45% · missed
D
CSKA Sofia II1–1Ludogorets II25 Aug · away
Pick: CSKA Sofia II 60% · missed

Nesebar

L
Nesebar1–2Chernomorets 1919 Burgas31 Oct · home
Pick: Nesebar 53% · missed
L
Hebar 19182–1Nesebar23 Oct · away
Pick: Nesebar 44% · missed
L
Nesebar0–2CSKA Sofia18 Oct · home
Pick: CSKA Sofia 51% · hit
D
Rodopa Smolyan1–1Nesebar4 Oct · away
Pick: Nesebar 46% · missed
D
Nesebar1–1Yantra 201929 Aug · home
Pick: Nesebar 39% · missed

About this match

Ludogorets II and Nesebar meet in Second League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. The match is played at PFC Ludogorets 1945 Training Centre, Razgrad. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Ludogorets II win 34.8%, draw 26.6%, Nesebar win 38.7%. The pick is Nesebar win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.0%. Both teams to score: 54.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.