ScoreProb
Second League Bulgaria Round 15 2026

Spartak Pleven vs Dobrudzha

Spartak Pleven Home · Elo 1,452
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dobrudzha Away · Elo 1,439
Stadion Pleven Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Spartak Pleven win
Spartak Pleven winPick
37.8%
Draw
27.5%
Dobrudzha win
34.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.5%
No48.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.9%
Under 2.552.1%

How much we know

Spartak Pleven history67 matches
Dobrudzha history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Spartak Pleven are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,452 against 1,439. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Dobrudzha score more

    1.01 goals a game over 67 matches for Spartak Pleven, against 1.24 over 70 for Dobrudzha.

  • Defences are close

    Spartak Pleven concede 1.39 a game, Dobrudzha 1.33.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Spartak Pleven matches, against 44% for Dobrudzha. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Spartak Pleven
Dobrudzha
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1451.7
ELO
1439.3
67
ELO · Matches
70
1451.7
Current Team ELO
1439.3
1439.3
Current Opponent ELO
1451.7
12.43
Current ELO Difference
-12.43
0.52
Expected score
0.48
67
History Matches
70
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.05
46.25
Overperformance
46.46
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.70
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.50
Goals against per game
2.20
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.94
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.96
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
70
1.09
PPG
1.24
29.9%
Win rate
34.3%
19.4%
Draw rate
21.4%
50.7%
Loss rate
44.3%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
72.9%
46.3%
Over 2.5 rate
44.3%
20.9%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
36
1.46
PPG
0.83
42.9%
Win rate
19.4%
17.9%
Draw rate
25.0%
39.3%
Loss rate
55.6%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
46.4%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
28
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.01
Goals for per game
1.24
56.7%
Scoring rate
62.9%
37.3%
BTTS rate
45.7%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.11
67.9%
Scoring rate
63.9%
42.9%
BTTS rate
52.8%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
60.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
67
History Matches
70
1.01
Goals Mean
1.24
1.13
Goals Std
1.36
56.7%
Scored 1+ rate
62.9%
32.8%
Scored 2+ rate
37.1%
6.0%
Scored 3+ rate
12.9%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.11
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.39
Goals against per game
1.33
70.1%
Conceding rate
75.7%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.61
64.3%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
67
History Matches
70
1.39
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.26
Conceded Std
1.19
41.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.1%
17.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.9%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
1.61
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.9%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
43.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
29.9%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
43.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
29.9%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
70
0.93
Result entropy
0.96
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.79
6.86
Stability score
3.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
70
13
Lead Matches
20
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.82
24
Trailing Matches
28
8.3%
Non-loss rate
17.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
3.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.96
Rest days
76.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.09
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.03
26
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.42
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
0.80
-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.20
5
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.61
0.58
Portability PPG Range
1.51
70.83
Portability Score
44.99
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO12.43
PPG-0.15
GF-0.23
GA0.06
PPG0.60
PPG0.63
PPG0.60
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Failed-to-score rate6.1%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate19.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.23
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.60
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.06
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Conceded 2+ rate4.6%
Conceded 3+ rate5.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.91
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score3.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.33
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.41
Portability PPG Range-0.93
Portability Score25.84
Rest days-2.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.06
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Current Team ELO12.43
Current Opponent ELO-12.43
Current ELO Difference24.86
Expected score0.04
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Spartak Pleven

W
Montana1–2Spartak Pleven2 Nov · away
Pick: Montana 44% · missed
W
Spartak Pleven2–1Etar Veliko Tarnovo23 Oct · home
Pick: Etar Veliko Tarnovo 48% · missed
L
Spartak Pleven0–2Levski Sofia18 Oct · home
Pick: Levski Sofia 58% · hit
L
Spartak Pleven0–2Vihren30 Aug · home
Pick: Vihren 39% · hit
L
Beroe3–0Spartak Pleven25 Aug · away
Pick: Beroe 40% · hit

Dobrudzha

L
Ludogorets II5–1Dobrudzha27 Oct · away
Pick: Ludogorets II 43% · hit
W
Dobrudzha2–1Montana19 Oct · home
Pick: Dobrudzha 47% · hit
W
Belasitsa1–2Dobrudzha4 Oct · away
Pick: Dobrudzha 43% · hit
D
Dobrudzha0–0Rilski Sportist29 Aug · home
Pick: Dobrudzha 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Spartak Pleven and Dobrudzha meet in Second League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Pleven. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Spartak Pleven win 37.8%, draw 27.5%, Dobrudzha win 34.7%. The pick is Spartak Pleven win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.9%. Both teams to score: 51.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.