ScoreProb
Second League Bulgaria Round 15 2026

Hebar 1918 vs Marek

Hebar 1918 Home · Elo 1,449
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Marek Away · Elo 1,510
Stadion Georgi Benkovski, Pazardzhik Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hebar 1918 win
Hebar 1918 winPick
39.1%
Draw
28.5%
Marek win
32.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.4%
No47.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.6%
Under 2.552.4%

How much we know

Hebar 1918 history62 matches
Marek history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Hebar 1918 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Marek are rated 61 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,510 against 1,449. On rating alone Marek would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Hebar 1918 score more

    1.24 goals a game over 62 matches for Hebar 1918, against 0.98 over 65 for Marek.

  • Marek concede fewer

    Hebar 1918 concede 1.68 a game, Marek 1.20.

  • Hebar 1918 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Hebar 1918 matches, against 37% for Marek. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hebar 1918
Marek
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1449.0
ELO
1510.0
62
ELO · Matches
65
1449.0
Current Team ELO
1510.0
1510.0
Current Opponent ELO
1449.0
-61.01
Current ELO Difference
61.01
0.41
Expected score
0.59
62
History Matches
65
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.01
46.85
Overperformance
49.47
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
0.90
1.70
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
0.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
65
1.05
PPG
1.32
29.0%
Win rate
35.4%
17.7%
Draw rate
26.2%
53.2%
Loss rate
38.5%
77.4%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
36.9%
29.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
38
0.97
PPG
0.97
26.7%
Win rate
23.7%
16.7%
Draw rate
26.3%
56.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
63.2%
56.7%
Over 2.5 rate
39.5%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
30
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.24
Goals for per game
0.98
69.4%
Scoring rate
64.6%
54.8%
BTTS rate
36.9%
1.03
Goals for per game
0.79
66.7%
Scoring rate
52.6%
53.3%
BTTS rate
31.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
100.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
62
History Matches
65
1.24
Goals Mean
0.98
1.34
Goals Std
0.98
69.4%
Scored 1+ rate
64.6%
32.3%
Scored 2+ rate
21.5%
11.3%
Scored 3+ rate
10.8%
1.03
Venue Goals Mean
0.79
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.68
Goals against per game
1.20
79.0%
Conceding rate
61.5%
1.80
Goals against per game
1.45
80.0%
Conceding rate
68.4%
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
62
History Matches
65
1.68
Conceded Mean
1.20
1.25
Conceded Std
1.23
54.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.4%
25.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.9%
1.80
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.4%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
47.4%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
21.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.4%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
47.4%
21.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
65
0.91
Result entropy
0.99
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.62
8.84
Stability score
1.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
65
12
Lead Matches
16
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.88
27
Trailing Matches
19
18.5%
Non-loss rate
26.3%
3.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.87
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
76.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
25
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
0.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.20
Current Competition PPG
1.20
-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.18
0.58
Portability PPG Range
0.46
68.56
Portability Score
73.95
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-61.01
PPG-0.27
GF0.26
GA0.48
PPG0.00
PPG-0.01
PPG0.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.26
Goals Std0.36
Scored 1+ rate4.7%
Scored 2+ rate10.7%
Scored 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.48
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate19.5%
Conceded 3+ rate8.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.09
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score7.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.84
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate3.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.20
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.12
Portability Score-5.39
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Current Team ELO-61.01
Current Opponent ELO61.01
Current ELO Difference-122.0
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hebar 1918

L
Yantra 20193–0Hebar 191829 Oct · away
Pick: Yantra 2019 52% · hit
W
Hebar 19182–1Nesebar23 Oct · home
Pick: Nesebar 44% · missed
W
Pirin Blagoevgrad1–4Hebar 191817 Oct · away
Pick: Hebar 1918 46% · hit
W
Yambol 19150–5Hebar 19184 Oct · away
Pick: Hebar 1918 38% · hit
D
Hebar 19181–1Fratria1 Sep · home
Pick: Fratria 48% · missed

Marek

D
Vihren1–1Marek23 Oct · away
Pick: Vihren 54% · missed
L
Marek0–3Cherno More Varna17 Oct · home
Pick: Cherno More Varna 42% · hit
W
Chavdar Troyan0–4Marek4 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 37% · missed
D
Sportist Svoge0–0Marek29 Aug · away
Pick: Sportist Svoge 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hebar 1918 and Marek meet in Second League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski, Pazardzhik. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Hebar 1918 win 39.1%, draw 28.5%, Marek win 32.3%. The pick is Hebar 1918 win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.6%. Both teams to score: 52.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.