ScoreProb
Second League Bulgaria Round 15 2026

Vihren vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

Vihren Home · Elo 1,589
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa Away · Elo 1,465
Spartak Stadium, Sandanski Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vihren win
Vihren winPick
56.8%
Draw
24.7%
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win
18.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.3%
No46.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.2%
Under 2.547.8%

How much we know

Vihren history63 matches
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Vihren are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Vihren are rated 123 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,589 against 1,465. On rating alone Vihren would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Vihren score far more

    1.86 goals a game over 63 matches for Vihren, against 1.05 over 61 for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa.

  • Vihren concede fewer

    Vihren concede 1.11 a game, Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1.38.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Vihren matches, against 48% for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vihren
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1588.6
ELO
1465.2
63
ELO · Matches
61
1588.6
Current Team ELO
1465.2
1465.2
Current Opponent ELO
1588.6
123.4
Current ELO Difference
-123.4
0.67
Expected score
0.33
63
History Matches
61
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.04
55.31
Overperformance
47.30
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.10
1.50
Goals for per game
0.90
0.90
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
61
1.81
PPG
1.23
52.4%
Win rate
32.8%
23.8%
Draw rate
24.6%
23.8%
Loss rate
42.6%
76.2%
Over 1.5 rate
65.6%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
47.5%
39.7%
Over 3.5 rate
19.7%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
33
2.22
PPG
0.88
65.6%
Win rate
18.2%
25.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
9.4%
Loss rate
48.5%
78.1%
Over 1.5 rate
60.6%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
21.2%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
32
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.86
Goals for per game
1.05
77.8%
Scoring rate
62.3%
50.8%
BTTS rate
47.5%
2.19
Goals for per game
0.79
81.3%
Scoring rate
54.5%
53.1%
BTTS rate
42.4%
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
63
History Matches
61
1.86
Goals Mean
1.05
1.51
Goals Std
1.06
77.8%
Scored 1+ rate
62.3%
57.1%
Scored 2+ rate
29.5%
28.6%
Scored 3+ rate
9.8%
2.19
Venue Goals Mean
0.79
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.11
Goals against per game
1.38
63.5%
Conceding rate
75.4%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.64
59.4%
Conceding rate
72.7%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
63
History Matches
61
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.01
Conceded Std
1.28
38.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.1%
9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.8%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
37.7%
40.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
37.7%
40.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
61
0.93
Result entropy
0.98
1.73
Goal Difference Std
1.69
6.97
Stability score
2.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
60
16
Lead Matches
15
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.78
11
Trailing Matches
22
36.4%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.90
Rest days
78.86
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.37
26
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.96
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
60.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.80
Current Competition PPG
1.40
0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.20
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.57
Portability PPG Range
0.66
71.35
Portability Score
66.40
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO123.4
PPG0.58
GF0.81
GA-0.27
PPG0.40
PPG1.34
PPG0.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate11.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate13.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.81
Goals Std0.45
Scored 1+ rate15.5%
Scored 2+ rate27.6%
Scored 3+ rate18.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.19
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.27
Conceded Std-0.27
Clean-sheet rate11.9%
Conceded 2+ rate2.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.76
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.59
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score4.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.11
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate14.2%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate18.2%
Trailing Win Rate13.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.80
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.09
Portability Score4.96
Rest days-2.97
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.33
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.93
Current Team ELO123.4
Current Opponent ELO-123.4
Current ELO Difference246.8
Expected score0.34
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance8.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vihren

D
Rilski Sportist0–0Vihren30 Oct · away
Pick: Vihren 39% · missed
D
Vihren1–1Marek23 Oct · home
Pick: Vihren 54% · missed
L
Vihren1–2Lokomotiv Sofia17 Oct · home
Pick: Vihren 37% · missed
W
Spartak Pleven0–2Vihren30 Aug · away
Pick: Vihren 39% · hit
D
Vihren2–2Fratria24 Aug · home
Pick: Vihren 39% · missed

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

W
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa2–0Beroe30 Oct · home
Pick: Beroe 38% · missed
W
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa2–0Pirin Blagoevgrad23 Oct · home
Pick: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 63% · hit
W
Natsional Sofia1–3Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa4 Oct · away
Pick: Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 40% · hit
L
Montana3–0Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa30 Aug · away
Pick: Montana 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Vihren and Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa meet in Second League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Spartak Stadium, Sandanski. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Vihren win 56.8%, draw 24.7%, Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win 18.5%. The pick is Vihren win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.2%. Both teams to score: 53.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.