ScoreProb
Premier League Armenia Round 13 2026

BKMA vs Alashkert

BKMA Home · Elo 1,433
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Alashkert Away · Elo 1,573
Football Academy Stadium, Yerevan Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Alashkert win
BKMA win
20.3%
Draw
23.4%
Alashkert winPick
56.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.7%
No51.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.0%
Under 2.550.0%

How much we know

BKMA history49 matches
Alashkert history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Alashkert are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Alashkert are rated 140 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,573 against 1,433. On rating alone Alashkert would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Alashkert score more

    1.10 goals a game over 49 matches for BKMA, against 1.36 over 56 for Alashkert.

  • Alashkert concede fewer

    BKMA concede 1.51 a game, Alashkert 1.07.

  • BKMA games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of BKMA matches, against 43% for Alashkert. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
BKMA
Alashkert
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1432.8
ELO
1572.9
49
ELO · Matches
56
1432.8
Current Team ELO
1572.9
1572.9
Current Opponent ELO
1432.8
-140.1
Current ELO Difference
140.1
0.31
Expected score
0.69
49
History Matches
56
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.06
45.58
Overperformance
54.18
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.80
1.10
Goals for per game
1.50
1.50
Goals against per game
0.70
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.12
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
56
1.02
PPG
1.59
22.4%
Win rate
44.6%
34.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
42.9%
Loss rate
30.4%
77.6%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
51.0%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
30.6%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
30
1.19
PPG
1.27
26.9%
Win rate
33.3%
38.5%
Draw rate
26.7%
34.6%
Loss rate
40.0%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
30.8%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
26
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.10
Goals for per game
1.36
63.3%
Scoring rate
76.8%
53.1%
BTTS rate
46.4%
1.23
Goals for per game
1.20
69.2%
Scoring rate
70.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
0.25
Goals for per game
2.25
25.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
49
History Matches
56
1.10
Goals Mean
1.36
1.05
Goals Std
1.03
63.3%
Scored 1+ rate
76.8%
34.7%
Scored 2+ rate
41.1%
10.2%
Scored 3+ rate
17.9%
1.23
Venue Goals Mean
1.20
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.51
Goals against per game
1.07
77.6%
Conceding rate
67.9%
1.23
Goals against per game
1.47
65.4%
Conceding rate
86.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
0.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
25.0%
49
History Matches
56
1.51
Conceded Mean
1.07
1.18
Conceded Std
0.96
49.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.4%
16.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.1%
1.23
Venue Conceded Mean
1.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.2%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
75.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.2%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
56
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.62
2.99
Stability score
2.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
55
9
Lead Matches
20
55.6%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.63
Lead Points Retention
0.83
16
Trailing Matches
16
18.8%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.04
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.50
22
Normal Rest History Matches
27
0.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
25
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.25
PPG
2.25
0.0%
Win rate
75.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.25
Current Competition PPG
2.25
-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
6
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.76
Portability PPG Std
0.64
2.08
Portability PPG Range
1.50
39.71
Portability Score
44.05
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-140.1
PPG-0.57
GF-0.26
GA0.44
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.07
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate13.5%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate21.3%
Failed-to-score rate0.8%
History Matches-7
Goals Mean-0.26
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.07
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean0.44
Conceded Std0.22
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate18.6%
Conceded 3+ rate9.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.01
Stability score0.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.39
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.25
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.12
Portability PPG Range0.58
Portability Score-4.34
Rest days-1.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.76
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Current Team ELO-140.1
Current Opponent ELO140.1
Current ELO Difference-280.1
Expected score-0.38
History Matches-7
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-8.60
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

BKMA

L
Shirak2–1BKMA31 Oct · away
Pick: Shirak 46% · hit
L
Alashkert4–0BKMA28 Oct · away
Pick: Alashkert 56% · hit
L
Syunik4–1BKMA25 Oct · away
Pick: Syunik 45% · hit
L
BKMA0–1Ararat-Armenia18 Oct · home
Pick: Ararat-Armenia 64% · hit
L
Pyunik Yerevan5–0BKMA12 Oct · away
Pick: Pyunik Yerevan 76% · hit

Alashkert

W
Ararat0–2Alashkert31 Oct · away
Pick: Alashkert 64% · hit
W
Alashkert4–0BKMA28 Oct · home
Pick: Alashkert 56% · hit
W
Shirak0–1Alashkert24 Oct · away
Pick: Alashkert 69% · hit
W
Alashkert5–1Syunik16 Oct · home
Pick: Alashkert 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

BKMA and Alashkert meet in Premier League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Football Academy Stadium, Yerevan. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: BKMA win 20.3%, draw 23.4%, Alashkert win 56.3%. The pick is Alashkert win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.0%. Both teams to score: 48.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.