ScoreProb
Premier League Armenia Round 13 2026

Van vs Pyunik Yerevan

Van Home · Elo 1,471
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pyunik Yerevan Away · Elo 1,590
Charentsavan City Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pyunik Yerevan win
Van win
17.8%
Draw
23.8%
Pyunik Yerevan winPick
58.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.7%
No48.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.4%
Under 2.545.6%

How much we know

Van history56 matches
Pyunik Yerevan history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Pyunik Yerevan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pyunik Yerevan are rated 119 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,590 against 1,471. On rating alone Pyunik Yerevan would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Pyunik Yerevan score more

    1.25 goals a game over 56 matches for Van, against 1.64 over 66 for Pyunik Yerevan.

  • Pyunik Yerevan concede fewer

    Van concede 1.48 a game, Pyunik Yerevan 1.20.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Van matches, against 53% for Pyunik Yerevan. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Van
Pyunik Yerevan
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1471.0
ELO
1589.6
56
ELO · Matches
66
1471.0
Current Team ELO
1589.6
1589.6
Current Opponent ELO
1471.0
-118.6
Current ELO Difference
118.6
0.34
Expected score
0.66
56
History Matches
66
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.07
47.56
Overperformance
55.06
-0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
2.60
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
2.10
0.70
Goals for per game
1.50
1.80
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.12
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
66
1.34
PPG
1.62
37.5%
Win rate
48.5%
21.4%
Draw rate
16.7%
41.1%
Loss rate
34.8%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.3%
55.4%
Over 2.5 rate
53.0%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
34
1.62
PPG
1.44
46.2%
Win rate
41.2%
23.1%
Draw rate
20.6%
30.8%
Loss rate
38.2%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
57.7%
Over 2.5 rate
44.1%
30.8%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
26
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.25
Goals for per game
1.64
73.2%
Scoring rate
78.8%
51.8%
BTTS rate
48.5%
1.54
Goals for per game
1.38
80.8%
Scoring rate
79.4%
53.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.33
Goals for per game
2.33
33.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
56
History Matches
66
1.25
Goals Mean
1.64
1.07
Goals Std
1.51
73.2%
Scored 1+ rate
78.8%
35.7%
Scored 2+ rate
45.5%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.48
Goals against per game
1.20
71.4%
Conceding rate
63.6%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.21
61.5%
Conceding rate
64.7%
3.00
Goals against per game
0.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
56
History Matches
66
1.48
Conceded Mean
1.20
1.25
Conceded Std
1.17
53.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.4%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.2%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
26.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
26.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.3%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
66
0.97
Result entropy
0.93
1.72
Goal Difference Std
2.01
3.21
Stability score
7.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
64
15
Lead Matches
27
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
81.5%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.84
18
Trailing Matches
15
27.8%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.96
Rest days
76.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
32
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.63
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.85
21
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.32
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
2.33
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
2.33
-2.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.67
7
Competition Season Count
10
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.73
Portability PPG Std
0.57
2.25
Portability PPG Range
1.83
40.75
Portability Score
46.73
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-118.6
PPG-0.28
GF-0.39
GA0.29
PPG-2.33
PPG0.17
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate5.6%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate3.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-10
Goals Mean-0.39
Goals Std-0.44
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.48
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate17.2%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.50
History Matches-10
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.29
Stability score-4.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate1.1%
Trailing Win Rate3.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.33
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.42
Portability Score-5.98
Rest days6.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Current Team ELO-118.6
Current Opponent ELO118.6
Current ELO Difference-237.1
Expected score-0.33
History Matches-10
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.41

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Van

D
Sardarapat2–2Van30 Oct · away
Pick: Sardarapat 71% · missed
W
Van2–1Ararat23 Oct · home
Pick: Van 42% · hit
L
Van0–4Shirak29 Aug · home
Pick: Van 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Pyunik Yerevan

W
Pyunik Yerevan1–0FC Urartu30 Oct · home
Pick: Pyunik Yerevan 56% · hit
W
Pyunik Yerevan6–2Ararat27 Oct · home
Pick: Pyunik Yerevan 64% · hit
W
Pyunik Yerevan3–0Gandzasar23 Oct · home
Pick: Pyunik Yerevan 81% · hit
D
FC Noah1–1Pyunik Yerevan18 Oct · away
Pick: FC Noah 48% · missed
W
Pyunik Yerevan5–0BKMA12 Oct · home
Pick: Pyunik Yerevan 76% · hit

About this match

Van and Pyunik Yerevan meet in Premier League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Charentsavan City Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Van win 17.8%, draw 23.8%, Pyunik Yerevan win 58.4%. The pick is Pyunik Yerevan win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.4%. Both teams to score: 51.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.