ScoreProb
Liga Leumit Israel Round 13 2026

Bnei Yehuda vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth

Bnei Yehuda Home · Elo 1,580
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth Away · Elo 1,563
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bnei Yehuda win
Bnei Yehuda winPick
64.0%
Draw
19.3%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth win
16.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.8%
No47.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.6%
Under 2.545.4%

How much we know

Bnei Yehuda history62 matches
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth history30 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.0%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Bnei Yehuda are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,580 against 1,563. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Maccabi Ahi Nazareth score more

    1.31 goals a game over 62 matches for Bnei Yehuda, against 1.77 over 30 for Maccabi Ahi Nazareth.

  • Defences are close

    Bnei Yehuda concede 1.24 a game, Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 1.27.

  • Maccabi Ahi Nazareth games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Bnei Yehuda matches, against 57% for Maccabi Ahi Nazareth. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bnei Yehuda
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1580.1
ELO
1563.3
62
ELO · Matches
30
1580.1
Current Team ELO
1563.3
1563.3
Current Opponent ELO
1580.1
16.77
Current ELO Difference
-16.77
0.52
Expected score
0.48
62
History Matches
30
0.06
Residual Mean
0.10
54.52
Overperformance
56.24
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
2.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.70
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
30
1.48
PPG
1.93
40.3%
Win rate
60.0%
27.4%
Draw rate
13.3%
32.3%
Loss rate
26.7%
67.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
56.7%
27.4%
Over 3.5 rate
36.7%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.20
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
15
1.48
PPG
1.93
41.4%
Win rate
60.0%
24.1%
Draw rate
13.3%
34.5%
Loss rate
26.7%
62.1%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
41.4%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
27.6%
Over 3.5 rate
46.7%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
29
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.77
75.8%
Scoring rate
76.7%
51.6%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.24
Goals for per game
1.87
79.3%
Scoring rate
73.3%
55.2%
BTTS rate
46.7%
3.50
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
62
History Matches
30
1.31
Goals Mean
1.77
1.06
Goals Std
1.36
75.8%
Scored 1+ rate
76.7%
38.7%
Scored 2+ rate
56.7%
11.3%
Scored 3+ rate
30.0%
1.24
Venue Goals Mean
1.87
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.24
Goals against per game
1.27
69.4%
Conceding rate
70.0%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.13
69.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
30
1.24
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.27
Conceded Std
1.57
29.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.7%
16.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
1.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
30
0.99
Result entropy
0.84
1.61
Goal Difference Std
2.20
1.15
Stability score
15.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
30
17
Lead Matches
15
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
86.7%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.89
18
Trailing Matches
6
33.3%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
30
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.88
Rest days
73.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
42
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.06
15
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
6
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.36
0.88
Portability PPG Range
0.85
58.12
Portability Score
58.36
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
30
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO16.77
PPG-0.45
GF-0.46
GA-0.02
PPG3.00
PPG-0.45
PPG0.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches32
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Failed-to-score rate0.9%
History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches32
Goals Mean-0.46
Goals Std-0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.43
History Matches32
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std-0.30
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Conceded 2+ rate2.4%
Conceded 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches32
Result entropy0.14
Goal Difference Std-0.60
Stability score-14.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.33
Eligible Matches32
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.28
Halftime Coverage Matches32
First Half Goals For Mean-0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.03
Portability Score-0.25
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches26
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Current Team ELO16.77
Current Opponent ELO-16.77
Current ELO Difference33.53
Expected score0.05
History Matches32
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-1.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bnei Yehuda

L
Ashdod3–1Bnei Yehuda2 Nov · away
Pick: Bnei Yehuda 62% · missed
W
Bnei Yehuda5–1Kiryat Yam SC23 Oct · home
Pick: Bnei Yehuda 54% · hit
D
Hapoel Ra'anana1–1Bnei Yehuda19 Oct · away
Pick: Bnei Yehuda 44% · missed
L
Dimona2–0Bnei Yehuda12 Oct · away
Pick: Bnei Yehuda 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth

W
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth3–2Kafr Qasim30 Oct · home
Pick: Kafr Qasim 47% · missed
W
Hapoel Sderot2–3Maccabi Ahi Nazareth26 Oct · away
Pick: Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 54% · hit
D
Maccabi Kiryat Gat2–2Maccabi Ahi Nazareth23 Oct · away
Pick: Maccabi Kiryat Gat 52% · missed
L
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth0–4Hapoel Kfar Saba16 Oct · home
Pick: Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 49% · missed
W
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa1–2Maccabi Ahi Nazareth30 Aug · away
Pick: Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 46% · missed

About this match

Bnei Yehuda and Maccabi Ahi Nazareth meet in Liga Leumit on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Bnei Yehuda win 64.0%, draw 19.3%, Maccabi Ahi Nazareth win 16.8%. The pick is Bnei Yehuda win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.6%. Both teams to score: 52.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.