ScoreProb
Liga Leumit Israel Round 13 2026

Maccabi Herzliya vs Hapoel Kfar Shalem

Maccabi Herzliya Home · Elo 1,545
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hapoel Kfar Shalem Away · Elo 1,500
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Maccabi Herzliya win
Maccabi Herzliya winPick
51.0%
Draw
23.2%
Hapoel Kfar Shalem win
25.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.8%
No40.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.8%
Under 2.540.2%

How much we know

Maccabi Herzliya history58 matches
Hapoel Kfar Shalem history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Maccabi Herzliya are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Maccabi Herzliya are rated 45 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,545 against 1,500. On rating alone Maccabi Herzliya would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.41 goals a game over 58 matches for Maccabi Herzliya, against 1.54 over 57 for Hapoel Kfar Shalem.

  • Maccabi Herzliya concede fewer

    Maccabi Herzliya concede 1.26 a game, Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1.65.

  • Hapoel Kfar Shalem games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Maccabi Herzliya matches, against 61% for Hapoel Kfar Shalem. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Maccabi Herzliya
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1545.0
ELO
1499.9
58
ELO · Matches
57
1545.0
Current Team ELO
1499.9
1499.9
Current Opponent ELO
1545.0
45.12
Current ELO Difference
-45.12
0.56
Expected score
0.44
58
History Matches
57
0.04
Residual Mean
0.00
53.07
Overperformance
49.92
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
2.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.30
Goals against per game
2.30
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
57
1.62
PPG
1.35
46.6%
Win rate
38.6%
22.4%
Draw rate
19.3%
31.0%
Loss rate
42.1%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
61.4%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
43.9%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
29
1.57
PPG
1.10
43.3%
Win rate
27.6%
26.7%
Draw rate
27.6%
30.0%
Loss rate
44.8%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
62.1%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
48.3%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
30
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.41
Goals for per game
1.54
75.9%
Scoring rate
75.4%
53.4%
BTTS rate
63.2%
1.47
Goals for per game
1.52
70.0%
Scoring rate
75.9%
53.3%
BTTS rate
69.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
58
History Matches
57
1.41
Goals Mean
1.54
1.08
Goals Std
1.27
75.9%
Scored 1+ rate
75.4%
48.3%
Scored 2+ rate
49.1%
12.1%
Scored 3+ rate
21.1%
1.47
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.26
Goals against per game
1.65
70.7%
Conceding rate
84.2%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.72
76.7%
Conceding rate
89.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
58
History Matches
57
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.65
1.09
Conceded Std
1.18
36.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.9%
17.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.3%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
57
0.96
Result entropy
0.95
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.81
4.04
Stability score
4.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
57
17
Lead Matches
16
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.83
12
Trailing Matches
17
33.3%
Non-loss rate
29.4%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.88
Rest days
74.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
17
Long Rest History Matches
17
2.12
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.23
0.98
Portability PPG Range
0.45
55.17
Portability Score
68.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO45.12
PPG0.27
GF-0.13
GA-0.39
PPG0.00
PPG0.46
PPG-0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate13.5%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate13.0%
Failed-to-score rate5.9%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate0.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.35
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.39
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate13.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.18
Stability score-0.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.65
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate3.9%
Trailing Win Rate10.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.53
Portability Score-13.58
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.75
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.26
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.35
Current Team ELO45.12
Current Opponent ELO-45.12
Current ELO Difference90.24
Expected score0.13
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Maccabi Herzliya

D
Maccabi Bnei Raina1–1Maccabi Herzliya30 Oct · away
Pick: Maccabi Herzliya 51% · missed
L
Maccabi Herzliya0–1Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa23 Oct · home
Pick: Maccabi Herzliya 59% · missed
D
Hapoel Afula0–0Maccabi Herzliya16 Oct · away
Pick: Hapoel Afula 46% · missed
L
Maccabi Herzliya0–2Hapoel Kfar Saba30 Aug · home
Pick: Maccabi Herzliya 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

W
Hapoel Kfar Shalem3–2Ironi Modi'in2 Nov · home
Pick: Hapoel Kfar Shalem 43% · hit
W
Hapoel Rishon LeZion0–3Hapoel Kfar Shalem23 Oct · away
Pick: Hapoel Rishon LeZion 51% · missed
W
Hapoel Kfar Shalem4–0Hapoel Acre19 Oct · home
Pick: Hapoel Kfar Shalem 55% · hit
W
Hapoel Kfar Shalem2–1Hapoel Ra'anana12 Oct · home
Pick: Hapoel Ra'anana 44% · missed
W
Hapoel Kfar Shalem3–2Kiryat Yam SC30 Aug · home
Pick: Kiryat Yam SC 41% · missed

About this match

Maccabi Herzliya and Hapoel Kfar Shalem meet in Liga Leumit on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Maccabi Herzliya win 51.0%, draw 23.2%, Hapoel Kfar Shalem win 25.8%. The pick is Maccabi Herzliya win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.8%. Both teams to score: 59.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.