ScoreProb
Liga Leumit Israel Round 13 2026

Maccabi Kiryat Gat vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Maccabi Kiryat Gat Home · Elo 1,629
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa Away · Elo 1,503
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Maccabi Kiryat Gat win
Maccabi Kiryat Gat winPick
61.3%
Draw
15.3%
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win
23.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.8%
No43.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.4%
Under 2.536.6%

How much we know

Maccabi Kiryat Gat history25 matches
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Maccabi Kiryat Gat are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Maccabi Kiryat Gat are rated 126 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,629 against 1,503. On rating alone Maccabi Kiryat Gat would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Maccabi Kiryat Gat score more

    2.32 goals a game over 25 matches for Maccabi Kiryat Gat, against 1.57 over 58 for Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa.

  • Maccabi Kiryat Gat concede fewer

    Maccabi Kiryat Gat concede 0.88 a game, Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1.53.

  • Maccabi Kiryat Gat games more often go over 2.5 goals

    64% of Maccabi Kiryat Gat matches, against 52% for Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1629.2
ELO
1502.9
25
ELO · Matches
58
1629.2
Current Team ELO
1502.9
1502.9
Current Opponent ELO
1629.2
126.3
Current ELO Difference
-126.3
0.67
Expected score
0.33
25
History Matches
58
0.25
Residual Mean
0.00
63.98
Overperformance
50.16
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
2.80
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
1.70
2.30
Goals for per game
2.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.83
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.85
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.65
Overall performance9 signals
90
25
Matches
58
2.48
PPG
1.40
76.0%
Win rate
37.9%
20.0%
Draw rate
25.9%
4.0%
Loss rate
36.2%
92.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.4%
64.0%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
39.7%
1.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
Venue performance10 signals
100
12
Matches
29
2.08
PPG
1.41
58.3%
Win rate
37.9%
33.3%
Draw rate
27.6%
8.3%
Loss rate
34.5%
91.7%
Over 1.5 rate
65.5%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
41.4%
1.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
12
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.32
Goals for per game
1.57
100.0%
Scoring rate
77.6%
60.0%
BTTS rate
53.4%
2.17
Goals for per game
1.59
100.0%
Scoring rate
79.3%
75.0%
BTTS rate
51.7%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
25
History Matches
58
2.32
Goals Mean
1.57
0.93
Goals Std
1.43
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
77.6%
80.0%
Scored 2+ rate
43.1%
40.0%
Scored 3+ rate
17.2%
2.17
Venue Goals Mean
1.59
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.88
Goals against per game
1.53
60.0%
Conceding rate
67.2%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.31
75.0%
Conceding rate
62.1%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
25
History Matches
58
0.88
Conceded Mean
1.53
0.86
Conceded Std
1.61
24.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.9%
4.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.1%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
25
History Matches
58
0.60
Result entropy
0.99
1.17
Goal Difference Std
2.16
40.00
Stability score
1.21
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
25
Eligible Matches
58
14
Lead Matches
18
92.9%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.89
3
Trailing Matches
12
66.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
25
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
1.32
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.88
Rest days
73.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
15
Normal Rest History Matches
41
2.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.49
8
Long Rest History Matches
12
2.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.50
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.27
0.27
Portability PPG Range
0.62
78.95
Portability Score
65.02
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
25
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO126.3
PPG1.08
GF0.75
GA-0.65
PPG1.50
PPG0.67
PPG0.60
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-33
Clean-sheet rate7.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches-33
Goals Mean0.75
Goals Std-0.50
Scored 1+ rate22.4%
Scored 2+ rate36.9%
Scored 3+ rate22.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.93
History Matches-33
Conceded Mean-0.65
Conceded Std-0.75
Clean-sheet rate7.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.22
History Matches-33
Result entropy-0.39
Goal Difference Std-0.99
Stability score38.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.55
Eligible Matches-33
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate9.5%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate66.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-33
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.53
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.35
Portability Score13.93
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-26
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.05
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match1.25
Current Team ELO126.3
Current Opponent ELO-126.3
Current ELO Difference252.7
Expected score0.35
History Matches-33
Residual Mean0.25
Overperformance13.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Maccabi Kiryat Gat

L
Hapoel Afula1–0Maccabi Kiryat Gat30 Oct · away
Pick: Hapoel Afula 52% · hit
D
Maccabi Kiryat Gat2–2Maccabi Ahi Nazareth23 Oct · home
Pick: Maccabi Kiryat Gat 52% · missed
D
Ashdod0–0Maccabi Kiryat Gat16 Oct · away
Pick: Maccabi Kiryat Gat 43% · missed
D
Ironi Modi'in1–1Maccabi Kiryat Gat30 Aug · away
Pick: Ironi Modi'in 39% · missed
L
Maccabi Kiryat Gat1–2Hapoel Rishon LeZion24 Aug · home
Pick: Maccabi Kiryat Gat 42% · missed

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

L
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa0–3Hapoel Kfar Saba2 Nov · home
Pick: Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 44% · missed
W
Maccabi Herzliya0–1Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa23 Oct · away
Pick: Maccabi Herzliya 59% · missed
L
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa0–2Ironi Modi'in16 Oct · home
Pick: Ironi Modi'in 39% · hit
L
Hapoel Rishon LeZion3–0Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa12 Oct · away
Pick: Hapoel Rishon LeZion 52% · hit
L
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa1–2Maccabi Ahi Nazareth30 Aug · home
Pick: Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 46% · missed

About this match

Maccabi Kiryat Gat and Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa meet in Liga Leumit on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Maccabi Kiryat Gat win 61.3%, draw 15.3%, Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa win 23.3%. The pick is Maccabi Kiryat Gat win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.4%. Both teams to score: 56.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.