ScoreProb
Liga Leumit Israel Round 13 2026

Kiryat Yam SC vs Ashdod

Kiryat Yam SC Home · Elo 1,506
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ashdod Away · Elo 1,421
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kiryat Yam SC win
Kiryat Yam SC winPick
56.4%
Draw
20.0%
Ashdod win
23.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.4%
No45.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.7%
Under 2.542.3%

How much we know

Kiryat Yam SC history45 matches
Ashdod history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Kiryat Yam SC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kiryat Yam SC are rated 85 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,506 against 1,421. On rating alone Kiryat Yam SC would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Kiryat Yam SC score more

    1.49 goals a game over 45 matches for Kiryat Yam SC, against 1.20 over 55 for Ashdod.

  • Kiryat Yam SC concede fewer

    Kiryat Yam SC concede 1.09 a game, Ashdod 1.73.

  • Ashdod games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Kiryat Yam SC matches, against 56% for Ashdod. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kiryat Yam SC
Ashdod
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1505.7
ELO
1421.0
45
ELO · Matches
55
1505.7
Current Team ELO
1421.0
1421.0
Current Opponent ELO
1505.7
84.75
Current ELO Difference
-84.75
0.62
Expected score
0.38
45
History Matches
55
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.08
49.89
Overperformance
44.43
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
0.70
1.10
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
55
1.53
PPG
0.98
44.4%
Win rate
21.8%
20.0%
Draw rate
32.7%
35.6%
Loss rate
45.5%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
83.6%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
56.4%
28.9%
Over 3.5 rate
30.9%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
29
1.57
PPG
1.10
42.9%
Win rate
24.1%
28.6%
Draw rate
37.9%
28.6%
Loss rate
37.9%
76.2%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
24.1%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
21
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.49
Goals for per game
1.20
62.2%
Scoring rate
67.3%
37.8%
BTTS rate
61.8%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.10
66.7%
Scoring rate
62.1%
38.1%
BTTS rate
58.6%
3.00
Goals for per game
0.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
45
History Matches
55
1.49
Goals Mean
1.20
1.47
Goals Std
1.13
62.2%
Scored 1+ rate
67.3%
51.1%
Scored 2+ rate
36.4%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
9.1%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.09
Goals against per game
1.73
62.2%
Conceding rate
85.5%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.48
57.1%
Conceding rate
82.8%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
45
History Matches
55
1.09
Conceded Mean
1.73
1.17
Conceded Std
1.29
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.7%
6.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
1.48
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.5%
37.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.5%
37.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
55
0.96
Result entropy
0.96
1.99
Goal Difference Std
1.69
4.43
Stability score
3.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
55
14
Lead Matches
9
92.9%
Lead Win Rate
55.6%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.70
11
Trailing Matches
19
27.3%
Non-loss rate
15.8%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.88
Rest days
73.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.67
27
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.10
14
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.85
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
4
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.50
0.94
Portability PPG Range
1.22
51.53
Portability Score
49.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO84.75
PPG0.55
GF0.29
GA-0.64
PPG0.00
PPG0.47
PPG-0.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate23.2%
Failed-to-score rate5.1%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate25.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-10
Goals Mean0.29
Goals Std0.34
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate14.7%
Scored 3+ rate10.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.88
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean-0.64
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate23.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.09
History Matches-10
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.30
Stability score0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.51
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate37.3%
Lead Points Retention0.22
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate11.5%
Trailing Win Rate3.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.27
Portability Score1.62
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.67
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.61
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.29
Current Team ELO84.75
Current Opponent ELO-84.75
Current ELO Difference169.5
Expected score0.24
History Matches-10
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kiryat Yam SC

L
Hapoel Ra'anana3–2Kiryat Yam SC2 Nov · away
Pick: Hapoel Ra'anana 47% · hit
L
Bnei Yehuda5–1Kiryat Yam SC23 Oct · away
Pick: Bnei Yehuda 54% · hit
W
Kiryat Yam SC2–1Kafr Qasim16 Oct · home
Pick: Kiryat Yam SC 47% · hit
L
Hapoel Kfar Shalem3–2Kiryat Yam SC30 Aug · away
Pick: Kiryat Yam SC 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ashdod

W
Ashdod3–1Bnei Yehuda2 Nov · home
Pick: Bnei Yehuda 62% · missed
W
Kafr Qasim0–1Ashdod23 Oct · away
Pick: Kafr Qasim 54% · missed
D
Ashdod0–0Maccabi Kiryat Gat16 Oct · home
Pick: Maccabi Kiryat Gat 43% · missed
W
Hapoel Kfar Saba2–4Ashdod12 Oct · away
Pick: Ashdod 38% · hit
W
Ashdod1–0Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa24 Aug · home
Pick: Ashdod 52% · hit

About this match

Kiryat Yam SC and Ashdod meet in Liga Leumit on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Kiryat Yam SC win 56.4%, draw 20.0%, Ashdod win 23.6%. The pick is Kiryat Yam SC win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.7%. Both teams to score: 54.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.