ScoreProb
Campionato Primavera - 1 Italy Round 10 2026

Bologna U20 vs Monza U20

Bologna U20 Home · Elo 1,562
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Monza U20 Away · Elo 1,472
Centro Sportivo Crespellano Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bologna U20 win
Bologna U20 winPick
60.2%
Draw
21.1%
Monza U20 win
18.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.8%
No46.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.5%
Under 2.543.5%

How much we know

Bologna U20 history59 matches
Monza U20 history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Bologna U20 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bologna U20 are rated 91 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,562 against 1,472. On rating alone Bologna U20 would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.36 goals a game over 59 matches for Bologna U20, against 1.29 over 58 for Monza U20.

  • Bologna U20 concede fewer

    Bologna U20 concede 1.17 a game, Monza U20 1.47.

  • Monza U20 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Bologna U20 matches, against 53% for Monza U20. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bologna U20
Monza U20
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1562.3
ELO
1471.8
59
ELO · Matches
58
1562.3
Current Team ELO
1471.8
1471.8
Current Opponent ELO
1562.3
90.54
Current ELO Difference
-90.54
0.63
Expected score
0.37
59
History Matches
58
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.03
53.87
Overperformance
47.95
0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.40
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
0.40
1.90
Goals for per game
0.80
1.10
Goals against per game
1.70
70.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
58
1.49
PPG
1.31
40.7%
Win rate
36.2%
27.1%
Draw rate
22.4%
32.2%
Loss rate
41.4%
69.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.9%
44.1%
Over 2.5 rate
53.4%
25.4%
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
30
1.45
PPG
1.33
37.9%
Win rate
36.7%
31.0%
Draw rate
23.3%
31.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
48.3%
Over 2.5 rate
56.7%
34.5%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
29
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
1.29
76.3%
Scoring rate
75.9%
54.2%
BTTS rate
56.9%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.27
82.8%
Scoring rate
76.7%
62.1%
BTTS rate
63.3%
4.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
58
1.36
Goals Mean
1.29
1.13
Goals Std
1.02
76.3%
Scored 1+ rate
75.9%
37.3%
Scored 2+ rate
36.2%
15.3%
Scored 3+ rate
17.2%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.17
Goals against per game
1.47
71.2%
Conceding rate
72.4%
1.41
Goals against per game
1.57
72.4%
Conceding rate
76.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
58
1.17
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.03
Conceded Std
1.26
30.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.6%
13.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.2%
1.41
Venue Conceded Mean
1.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
58
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.42
Goal Difference Std
1.57
1.27
Stability score
2.77
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
58
16
Lead Matches
10
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.70
12
Trailing Matches
18
41.7%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.21
Rest days
77.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.55
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
24
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.54
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.24
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.32
0.31
Portability PPG Range
0.76
76.22
Portability Score
60.75
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO90.54
PPG0.18
GF0.06
GA-0.30
PPG3.00
PPG0.11
PPG1.60
PPG1.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate1.2%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.06
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate0.4%
Scored 2+ rate1.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.30
Conceded Std-0.23
Clean-sheet rate1.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.30
History Matches1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score-1.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.34
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate5.0%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate13.9%
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.45
Portability Score15.47
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.29
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.30
Current Team ELO90.54
Current Opponent ELO-90.54
Current ELO Difference181.1
Expected score0.25
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.51

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bologna U20

L
Lecce U203–0Bologna U2031 Oct · away
Pick: Bologna U20 39% · missed
W
Bologna U203–1Empoli U2024 Oct · home
Pick: Bologna U20 63% · hit
L
Parma U205–2Bologna U2016 Oct · away
Pick: Bologna U20 42% · missed
W
Cagliari U201–3Bologna U2030 Aug · away
Pick: Cagliari U20 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Monza U20

L
Monza U200–5Milan U2031 Oct · home
Pick: Milan U20 48% · hit
W
Monza U205–1Brescia U1927 Oct · home
Pick: Monza U20 53% · hit
D
Cesena U202–2Monza U2024 Oct · away
Pick: Cesena U20 54% · missed
L
Monza U201–2Juventus U2018 Oct · home
Pick: Juventus U20 45% · hit
D
Cagliari U201–1Monza U2012 Oct · away
Pick: Cagliari U20 57% · missed

About this match

Bologna U20 and Monza U20 meet in Campionato Primavera - 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Centro Sportivo Crespellano. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bologna U20 win 60.2%, draw 21.1%, Monza U20 win 18.8%. The pick is Bologna U20 win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.5%. Both teams to score: 53.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.