ScoreProb
UEFA Youth League World League Phase - 4 2026

Borussia Dortmund U19 vs Real Betis U19

Borussia Dortmund U19 Home · Elo 1,582
LIVE · 90+4'
2–2
Half time 2–2
Wed 4 Nov · 15:00 UTC
Real Betis U19 Away · Elo 1,517
Dortmund Brackel Training Ground Referee: W. Myc Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
Pre-match probability, unchanged Model pick: Borussia Dortmund U19 win
Borussia Dortmund U19 winPick
68.8%
Draw
13.3%
Real Betis U19 win
17.9%

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

GoalJ. Hoy · assist L. Vogt
6'
12'
GoalR. De Sa · assist M. Navarro
GoalB. Gardarsson · assist J. Hoy
23'
27'
Penalty missedRica
35'
GoalF. Batan
Yellow cardR. Ritter
48'
SubstitutionK. Prates off · M. Adje on
57'
SubstitutionA. Najdi off · T. Faust on
57'
62'
Yellow cardK. Bandera
SubstitutionE. dos Santos off · N. Goldberg on
63'
Yellow cardJ. Hoy
67'
68'
SubstitutionF. Batan off · K. Eshun on
81'
SubstitutionR. Oya off · N. Fernandez on
81'
SubstitutionM. Castilla off · I. Tretyakov on
SubstitutionB. Gardarsson off · H. Mohamadou on
88'
SubstitutionL. Vogt off · N. Konig on
88'

Our pre-match picks, right now

Updates with every goal. There is no in-play model: this is the pre-match pick against the live score.

Match resultPick: Borussia Dortmund U19 win · 68.8%
Level: 2–2
Both teams to scorePick: Yes · 57.3%
Already in
Over 2.5 goalsPick: Over · 79.7%
Already over 2.5
The pre-match numbers never change after kickoff. That is what makes the record verifiable.

Both teams to score

Yes57.3%
No42.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.579.7%
Under 2.520.3%

How much we know

Borussia Dortmund U19 history49 matches
Real Betis U19 history7 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Borussia Dortmund U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Borussia Dortmund U19 are rated 65 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,582 against 1,517. On rating alone Borussia Dortmund U19 would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Real Betis U19 score more

    2.31 goals a game over 49 matches for Borussia Dortmund U19, against 3.00 over 7 for Real Betis U19.

  • Real Betis U19 concede fewer

    Borussia Dortmund U19 concede 1.65 a game, Real Betis U19 1.43.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    76% of Borussia Dortmund U19 matches, against 71% for Real Betis U19. The model puts this match at 80% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Borussia Dortmund U19
Real Betis U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1581.7
ELO
1516.9
49
ELO · Matches
7
1581.7
Current Team ELO
1516.9
1516.9
Current Opponent ELO
1581.7
64.82
Current ELO Difference
-64.82
0.59
Expected score
0.41
49
History Matches
7
0.08
Residual Mean
0.14
55.42
Overperformance
53.54
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.40
2.60
Goals for per game
3.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
7
1.70
PPG
1.71
2.80
Goals for per game
3.00
2.20
Goals against per game
1.43
50.0%
Win rate
57.1%
2.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.00
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.69
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.43
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.76
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.62
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
7
1.82
PPG
1.71
57.1%
Win rate
57.1%
10.2%
Draw rate
0.0%
32.7%
Loss rate
42.9%
93.9%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
75.5%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
61.2%
Over 3.5 rate
71.4%
2.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
3
1.83
PPG
1.00
56.5%
Win rate
33.3%
13.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
30.4%
Loss rate
66.7%
91.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
69.6%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
60.9%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.62
23
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.31
Goals for per game
3.00
81.6%
Scoring rate
85.7%
53.1%
BTTS rate
42.9%
2.30
Goals for per game
3.00
82.6%
Scoring rate
100.0%
52.2%
BTTS rate
66.7%
49
History Matches
7
2.31
Goals Mean
3.00
1.54
Goals Std
1.69
81.6%
Scored 1+ rate
85.7%
67.3%
Scored 2+ rate
85.7%
51.0%
Scored 3+ rate
57.1%
2.30
Venue Goals Mean
3.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.65
Goals against per game
1.43
69.4%
Conceding rate
57.1%
1.61
Goals against per game
2.67
69.6%
Conceding rate
66.7%
49
History Matches
7
1.65
Conceded Mean
1.43
1.42
Conceded Std
1.76
53.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
26.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.6%
1.61
Venue Conceded Mean
2.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
7
0.84
Result entropy
0.62
2.37
Goal Difference Std
2.66
16.43
Stability score
37.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
7
23
Lead Matches
4
91.3%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
1.00
15
Trailing Matches
0
20.0%
Non-loss rate
—
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
7
1.10
First Half Goals For Mean
2.00
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.92
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.25
Rest days
253.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
32
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
15
Long Rest History Matches
6
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
2
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.50
Portability PPG Std
—
1.42
Portability PPG Range
—
50.05
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
7
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO64.82
PPG0.10
GF-0.69
GA0.22
PPG0.83
PPG0.00
PPG-0.01
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches42
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate4.1%
History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate17.4%
History Matches42
Goals Mean-0.69
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.29
History Matches42
Conceded Mean0.22
Conceded Std-0.34
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate24.5%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-1.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.36
History Matches42
Result entropy0.21
Goal Difference Std-0.30
Stability score-21.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.10
Eligible Matches42
Lead Matches19
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches15
Halftime Coverage Matches42
First Half Goals For Mean-0.90
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Rest days-179.8
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches32
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO64.82
Current Opponent ELO-64.82
Current ELO Difference129.6
Expected score0.18
History Matches42
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance1.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Borussia Dortmund U19

W
Borussia Dortmund U192–1MSV Duisburg U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia Dortmund U19 55% · hit
D
Schalke 04 U190–0Borussia Dortmund U1925 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Dortmund U19 45% · missed
W
Sabah U190–2Borussia Dortmund U1920 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Dortmund U19 61% · hit
W
Borussia Dortmund U196–2RW Oberhausen U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia Dortmund U19 70% · hit
W
Bodø / Glimt U190–5Borussia Dortmund U1914 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Dortmund U19 70% · hit

Real Betis U19

W
Real Betis U195–0Porto U1914 Oct · home
Pick: Porto U19 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Borussia Dortmund U19 and Real Betis U19 meet in UEFA Youth League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Dortmund Brackel Training Ground. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Borussia Dortmund U19 win 68.8%, draw 13.3%, Real Betis U19 win 17.9%. The pick is Borussia Dortmund U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 79.7%. Both teams to score: 57.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.