RB Leipzig U19 vs Manchester City U19
RB Leipzig U19
Full time
1–2
Half time 0–0
Wed 4 Nov · 14:00 UTC
Manchester City U19
What we said before kickoff Result: Manchester City U19 win
RB Leipzig U19 winPick
69.7%
Draw
11.0%
Manchester City U19 win Result
19.2%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickRB Leipzig U19 win · 69.7%
What happenedManchester City U19 win · we gave it 19.2%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 81.3%
What happenedOver · 3 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 67.4%
What happenedYes · 1–2
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Manchester City U19 win. In our numbers it ranked second of the three.
19%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 5.2
on average A pick at 70% is expected to miss about 3 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
53'
GoalT. Lamb
57'
Penalty goalD. Oliver
SubstitutionD. Yarsekou off · P. Johnsen on
60' SubstitutionT. Kanda off · I. Ogette on
60' SubstitutionV. Clair off · M. Kutscher on
60' 62'
Yellow cardB. Nfonkeu
SubstitutionD. Klapija off · C. Naumann on
69' Yellow cardN. Ehiwario
76' 81'
SubstitutionX. Parker off · F. Gorman on
GoalI. Ogette · assist T. Langsteiner
85' Yellow cardV. Gebel
89' 90'
SubstitutionR. McAidoo off · K. Midwood on
90+1'
Yellow cardD. Oliver
SubstitutionK. Hamella off · H. Muller on
90+2' Both teams to score
Yes67.4%
No32.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.581.3%
Under 2.518.7%
How much we know
RB Leipzig U19 history42 matches
Manchester City U19 history10 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 14:00 UTC
- Full time: 1–2Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (69.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.
Why RB Leipzig U19 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
RB Leipzig U19 are rated 74 Elo points higher
Elo 1,605 against 1,532. On rating alone RB Leipzig U19 would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.
-
RB Leipzig U19 score more
2.93 goals a game over 42 matches for RB Leipzig U19, against 2.50 over 10 for Manchester City U19.
-
Defences are close
RB Leipzig U19 concede 1.57 a game, Manchester City U19 1.50.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
76% of RB Leipzig U19 matches, against 80% for Manchester City U19. The model puts this match at 81% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
RB Leipzig U19
Manchester City U19
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1605.4
ELO
1531.6
42
ELO · Matches
10
1605.4
Current Team ELO
1531.6
1531.6
Current Opponent ELO
1605.4
73.84
Current ELO Difference
-73.84
0.60
Expected score
0.40
42
History Matches
10
0.13
Residual Mean
0.12
58.63
Overperformance
54.03
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
3.40
Goals for per game
2.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.70
2.50
Goals for per game
2.50
1.70
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.86
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.91
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.49
Overall performance9 signals 90
42
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.70
66.7%
Win rate
50.0%
9.5%
Draw rate
20.0%
23.8%
Loss rate
30.0%
90.5%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
76.2%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
64.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
Venue performance10 signals 100
22
Matches
7
2.09
PPG
1.57
68.2%
Win rate
42.9%
4.5%
Draw rate
28.6%
27.3%
Loss rate
28.6%
86.4%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
72.7%
Over 2.5 rate
85.7%
63.6%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
2.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
22
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.93
Goals for per game
2.50
88.1%
Scoring rate
80.0%
69.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.95
Goals for per game
2.43
86.4%
Scoring rate
85.7%
68.2%
BTTS rate
71.4%
42
History Matches
10
2.93
Goals Mean
2.50
1.96
Goals Std
1.91
88.1%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
76.2%
Scored 2+ rate
70.0%
52.4%
Scored 3+ rate
40.0%
2.95
Venue Goals Mean
2.43
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.57
Goals against per game
1.50
81.0%
Conceding rate
70.0%
1.41
Goals against per game
1.71
81.8%
Conceding rate
85.7%
42
History Matches
10
1.57
Conceded Mean
1.50
1.16
Conceded Std
1.20
47.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
21.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.0%
1.41
Venue Conceded Mean
1.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
11.9%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
11.9%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
42
History Matches
10
0.76
Result entropy
0.94
2.29
Goal Difference Std
2.49
23.91
Stability score
6.28
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
42
Eligible Matches
10
23
Lead Matches
3
91.3%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
1.00
7
Trailing Matches
4
14.3%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
10
1.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
1.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.80
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
74.17
Rest days
273.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
18
Normal Rest History Matches
0
2.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
22
Long Rest History Matches
9
2.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
2
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.26
0.61
Portability PPG Range
0.52
66.84
Portability Score
65.63
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
42
Clean History Matches
10
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO73.84
PPG0.40
GF0.43
GA0.07
PPG0.52
PPG0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches32
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate3.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches32
Goals Mean0.43
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate8.1%
Scored 2+ rate6.2%
Scored 3+ rate12.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.53
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.05
History Matches32
Conceded Mean0.07
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches32
Result entropy-0.18
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score17.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.40
Eligible Matches32
Lead Matches20
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.36
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches32
First Half Goals For Mean0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range0.08
Portability Score1.22
Rest days-198.8
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches18
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match0.27
Current Team ELO73.84
Current Opponent ELO-73.84
Current ELO Difference147.7
Expected score0.21
History Matches32
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance4.60
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
RB Leipzig U19
L
RB Leipzig U192–4Greuther Fürth U1931 Oct · home
Pick: RB Leipzig U19 78% · missed L
Real Madrid U195–2RB Leipzig U1921 Oct · away
Pick: RB Leipzig U19 53% · missed W
RB Leipzig U195–1Rot-Weiß Erfurt U1917 Oct · home
Pick: RB Leipzig U19 88% · hit L
RB Leipzig U191–6PSV U1913 Oct · home
Pick: RB Leipzig U19 62% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Manchester City U19
D
Manchester City U191–1AEK Athens U1920 Oct · home
Pick: Manchester City U19 60% · missed L
Manchester City U190–2PSG U1914 Oct · home
Pick: PSG U19 36% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
RB Leipzig U19 and Manchester City U19 finished 1–2 in UEFA Youth League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: RB Leipzig U19 win 69.7%, draw 11.0%, Manchester City U19 win 19.2%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.