ScoreProb
Bundesliga Germany Round 9 2026

Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg

Borussia Dortmund Home · Elo 1,652
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
SV Elversberg Away · Elo 1,621
Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Borussia Dortmund win
Borussia Dortmund winPick
59.8%
Draw
19.9%
SV Elversberg win
20.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.9%
No40.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.0%
Under 2.535.0%

How much we know

Borussia Dortmund history84 matches
SV Elversberg history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Borussia Dortmund are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Borussia Dortmund are rated 30 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,652 against 1,621. On rating alone Borussia Dortmund would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.00 goals a game over 84 matches for Borussia Dortmund, against 1.96 over 67 for SV Elversberg.

  • Defences are close

    Borussia Dortmund concede 1.33 a game, SV Elversberg 1.21.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Borussia Dortmund matches, against 60% for SV Elversberg. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Borussia Dortmund
SV Elversberg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1651.6
ELO
1621.2
84
ELO · Matches
67
1651.6
Current Team ELO
1621.2
1621.2
Current Opponent ELO
1651.6
30.46
Current ELO Difference
-30.46
0.54
Expected score
0.46
84
History Matches
67
0.09
Residual Mean
0.07
56.92
Overperformance
55.45
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.60
1.40
Goals for per game
2.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
2.50
1.30
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.63
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.06
Overall performance9 signals
90
84
Matches
67
1.89
PPG
1.78
57.1%
Win rate
50.7%
17.9%
Draw rate
25.4%
25.0%
Loss rate
23.9%
84.5%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
63.1%
Over 2.5 rate
59.7%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
38.8%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
40
2.05
PPG
1.63
63.4%
Win rate
45.0%
14.6%
Draw rate
27.5%
22.0%
Loss rate
27.5%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
65.9%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
48.8%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
41
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.00
Goals for per game
1.96
85.7%
Scoring rate
82.1%
56.0%
BTTS rate
55.2%
2.20
Goals for per game
1.78
87.8%
Scoring rate
77.5%
51.2%
BTTS rate
60.0%
84
History Matches
67
2.00
Goals Mean
1.96
1.31
Goals Std
1.60
85.7%
Scored 1+ rate
82.1%
61.9%
Scored 2+ rate
52.2%
36.9%
Scored 3+ rate
32.8%
2.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.78
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.33
Goals against per game
1.21
67.9%
Conceding rate
68.7%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.43
61.0%
Conceding rate
77.5%
84
History Matches
67
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.34
Conceded Std
1.17
41.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.8%
13.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.4%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
39.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.5%
12.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
39.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.5%
12.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.5%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
84
History Matches
67
0.89
Result entropy
0.94
1.95
Goal Difference Std
2.04
11.34
Stability score
5.86
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
84
Eligible Matches
64
42
Lead Matches
27
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.83
20
Trailing Matches
14
20.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
21.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
84
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
1.15
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.83
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
55
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.66
19
Long Rest History Matches
28
2.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.11
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
10
Competition Season Count
7
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.50
1.15
Portability PPG Range
1.25
55.26
Portability Score
49.81
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
84
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO30.46
PPG0.12
GF0.04
GA0.12
PPG0.42
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate16.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches17
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std-0.29
Scored 1+ rate3.6%
Scored 2+ rate9.7%
Scored 3+ rate4.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.51
History Matches17
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Conceded 2+ rate8.8%
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.16
History Matches17
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score5.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.87
Eligible Matches20
Lead Matches15
Lead Win Rate7.9%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.30
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches20
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score5.45
Rest days-0.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match1.33
Normal Rest History Matches20
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.20
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Current Team ELO30.46
Current Opponent ELO-30.46
Current ELO Difference60.92
Expected score0.09
History Matches17
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Borussia Dortmund

D
Bayern München2–2Borussia Dortmund31 Oct · away
Pick: Bayern München 53% · missed
W
Borussia Dortmund3–2Werder Bremen27 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia Dortmund 57% · hit
W
Borussia Dortmund1–0Eintracht Frankfurt24 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia Dortmund 57% · hit
W
Sabah FA1–2Borussia Dortmund20 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Dortmund 43% · hit
D
Union Berlin0–0Borussia Dortmund17 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Dortmund 53% · missed

SV Elversberg

W
SV Elversberg4–1FSV Mainz 0530 Oct · home
Pick: FSV Mainz 05 43% · missed
L
SV Elversberg0–2SV Darmstadt 9827 Oct · home
Pick: SV Elversberg 56% · missed
L
RB Leipzig4–0SV Elversberg24 Oct · away
Pick: RB Leipzig 43% · hit
W
SV Elversberg4–3FC Augsburg17 Oct · home
Pick: SV Elversberg 54% · hit
W
SV Elversberg3–2Bayer Leverkusen29 Aug · home
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen 47% · missed

About this match

Borussia Dortmund and SV Elversberg meet in Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. The match is played at Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Borussia Dortmund win 59.8%, draw 19.9%, SV Elversberg win 20.3%. The pick is Borussia Dortmund win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.0%. Both teams to score: 59.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.