ScoreProb
Bundesliga Germany Round 9 2026

SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt

SC Paderborn 07 Home · Elo 1,607
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Eintracht Frankfurt Away · Elo 1,575
Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Eintracht Frankfurt win
SC Paderborn 07 win
29.5%
Draw
21.1%
Eintracht Frankfurt winPick
49.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.7%
No41.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.6%
Under 2.535.4%

How much we know

SC Paderborn 07 history58 matches
Eintracht Frankfurt history77 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • SC Paderborn 07 are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,607 against 1,575. On rating alone SC Paderborn 07 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Eintracht Frankfurt score more

    1.76 goals a game over 58 matches for SC Paderborn 07, against 2.00 over 77 for Eintracht Frankfurt.

  • SC Paderborn 07 concede fewer

    SC Paderborn 07 concede 1.26 a game, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.71.

  • Eintracht Frankfurt games more often go over 2.5 goals

    57% of SC Paderborn 07 matches, against 66% for Eintracht Frankfurt. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
SC Paderborn 07
Eintracht Frankfurt
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1607.0
ELO
1575.1
58
ELO · Matches
77
1607.0
Current Team ELO
1575.1
1575.1
Current Opponent ELO
1607.0
31.95
Current ELO Difference
-31.95
0.55
Expected score
0.45
58
History Matches
77
0.09
Residual Mean
0.04
56.46
Overperformance
52.88
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.34
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.40
1.80
Goals for per game
3.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.30
1.70
Goals for per game
4.10
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
4.10
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
3.21
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.11
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
4.61
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
77
1.86
PPG
1.42
53.4%
Win rate
37.7%
25.9%
Draw rate
28.6%
20.7%
Loss rate
33.8%
87.9%
Over 1.5 rate
87.0%
56.9%
Over 2.5 rate
66.2%
27.6%
Over 3.5 rate
51.9%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
44
1.82
PPG
1.36
53.6%
Win rate
34.1%
21.4%
Draw rate
34.1%
25.0%
Loss rate
31.8%
96.4%
Over 1.5 rate
88.6%
67.9%
Over 2.5 rate
68.2%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
56.8%
1.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.04
28
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.76
Goals for per game
2.00
87.9%
Scoring rate
83.1%
65.5%
BTTS rate
63.6%
1.96
Goals for per game
2.18
96.4%
Scoring rate
79.5%
82.1%
BTTS rate
68.2%
58
History Matches
77
1.76
Goals Mean
2.00
1.18
Goals Std
1.91
87.9%
Scored 1+ rate
83.1%
56.9%
Scored 2+ rate
49.4%
17.2%
Scored 3+ rate
29.9%
1.96
Venue Goals Mean
2.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.26
Goals against per game
1.71
70.7%
Conceding rate
76.6%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.84
85.7%
Conceding rate
81.8%
58
History Matches
77
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.71
1.08
Conceded Std
1.52
41.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.8%
10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.6%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.84
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.9%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
3.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.9%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
3.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
77
0.92
Result entropy
0.99
1.42
Goal Difference Std
2.69
8.01
Stability score
0.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
77
21
Lead Matches
27
81.0%
Lead Win Rate
74.1%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.79
14
Trailing Matches
21
50.0%
Non-loss rate
19.0%
28.6%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
77
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
1.01
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
1.02
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.99
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.94
Rest days
77.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
11
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.09
35
Normal Rest History Matches
47
1.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.34
22
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.55
0.53
Portability PPG Range
1.88
67.02
Portability Score
47.82
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
77
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO31.95
PPG0.45
GF-0.24
GA-0.46
PPG0.46
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-19
Goals Mean-0.24
Goals Std-0.73
Scored 1+ rate4.8%
Scored 2+ rate7.5%
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-2.20
History Matches-19
Conceded Mean-0.46
Conceded Std-0.44
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.61
History Matches-19
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std-1.27
Stability score7.44
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-2.91
Eligible Matches-20
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate6.9%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate31.0%
Trailing Win Rate28.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-20
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.40
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.30
Portability PPG Range-1.34
Portability Score19.20
Rest days-2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.49
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.03
Current Team ELO31.95
Current Opponent ELO-31.95
Current ELO Difference63.91
Expected score0.09
History Matches-19
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.36

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

SC Paderborn 07

D
Borussia Mönchengladbach0–0SC Paderborn 0731 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Mönchengladbach 51% · missed
L
SC Paderborn 070–1VfB Stuttgart28 Oct · home
Pick: VfB Stuttgart 57% · hit
W
SC Paderborn 071–0Hamburger SV24 Oct · home
Pick: SC Paderborn 07 39% · hit
D
Werder Bremen2–2SC Paderborn 0717 Oct · away
Pick: Werder Bremen 46% · missed
D
FSV Mainz 050–0SC Paderborn 0729 Aug · away
Pick: FSV Mainz 05 54% · missed

Eintracht Frankfurt

W
Eintracht Frankfurt3–1Hamburger SV1 Nov · home
Pick: Eintracht Frankfurt 56% · hit
W
Hamburger SV1–3Eintracht Frankfurt27 Oct · away
Pick: Eintracht Frankfurt 55% · hit
L
Borussia Dortmund1–0Eintracht Frankfurt24 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Dortmund 57% · hit
W
Eintracht Frankfurt1–01. FC Köln16 Oct · home
Pick: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% · hit
D
Union Berlin3–3Eintracht Frankfurt29 Aug · away
Pick: Eintracht Frankfurt 51% · missed

About this match

SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Frankfurt meet in Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. The match is played at Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: SC Paderborn 07 win 29.5%, draw 21.1%, Eintracht Frankfurt win 49.4%. The pick is Eintracht Frankfurt win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.6%. Both teams to score: 58.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.