ScoreProb
Bundesliga Germany Round 9 2026

RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg

RB Leipzig Home · Elo 1,618
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Augsburg Away · Elo 1,529
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: RB Leipzig win
RB Leipzig winPick
52.7%
Draw
19.2%
FC Augsburg win
28.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.8%
No38.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.5%
Under 2.533.5%

How much we know

RB Leipzig history67 matches
FC Augsburg history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why RB Leipzig are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • RB Leipzig are rated 89 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,618 against 1,529. On rating alone RB Leipzig would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • RB Leipzig score more

    1.87 goals a game over 67 matches for RB Leipzig, against 1.45 over 62 for FC Augsburg.

  • RB Leipzig concede fewer

    RB Leipzig concede 1.33 a game, FC Augsburg 1.53.

  • RB Leipzig games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of RB Leipzig matches, against 53% for FC Augsburg. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1617.6
ELO
1528.7
67
ELO · Matches
62
1617.6
Current Team ELO
1528.7
1528.7
Current Opponent ELO
1617.6
88.90
Current ELO Difference
-88.90
0.63
Expected score
0.37
67
History Matches
62
0.08
Residual Mean
0.02
56.20
Overperformance
51.44
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.80
2.40
Goals for per game
4.40
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.70
1.90
Goals for per game
3.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.90
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.00
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
4.15
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.70
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
5.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
62
1.70
PPG
1.31
50.7%
Win rate
35.5%
17.9%
Draw rate
24.2%
31.3%
Loss rate
40.3%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
65.7%
Over 2.5 rate
53.2%
46.3%
Over 3.5 rate
35.5%
2.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
33
2.10
PPG
1.33
64.5%
Win rate
39.4%
16.1%
Draw rate
15.2%
19.4%
Loss rate
45.5%
90.3%
Over 1.5 rate
87.9%
71.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.6%
51.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.3%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.30
31
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.87
Goals for per game
1.45
82.1%
Scoring rate
69.4%
55.2%
BTTS rate
51.6%
2.35
Goals for per game
1.64
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
61.3%
BTTS rate
48.5%
67
History Matches
62
1.87
Goals Mean
1.45
1.60
Goals Std
2.03
82.1%
Scored 1+ rate
69.4%
50.7%
Scored 2+ rate
40.3%
26.9%
Scored 3+ rate
14.5%
2.35
Venue Goals Mean
1.64
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.33
Goals against per game
1.53
65.7%
Conceding rate
74.2%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.52
61.3%
Conceding rate
78.8%
67
History Matches
62
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.53
1.38
Conceded Std
1.44
35.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.3%
19.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.4%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
62
0.92
Result entropy
0.98
2.42
Goal Difference Std
2.70
7.53
Stability score
1.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
62
30
Lead Matches
15
76.7%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.73
13
Trailing Matches
24
23.1%
Non-loss rate
20.8%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
77.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
36
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.81
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
26
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.06
0.98
Portability PPG Range
0.14
58.79
Portability Score
88.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO88.90
PPG0.40
GF0.41
GA-0.20
PPG0.76
PPG0.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate17.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.41
Goals Std-0.43
Scored 1+ rate12.7%
Scored 2+ rate10.4%
Scored 3+ rate12.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.72
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-2.45
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.20
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.16
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score5.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-2.25
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches15
Lead Win Rate10.0%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate2.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.29
Portability PPG Range0.85
Portability Score-30.04
Rest days-0.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.44
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.51
Current Team ELO88.90
Current Opponent ELO-88.90
Current ELO Difference177.8
Expected score0.25
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

RB Leipzig

W
FC Schalke 040–2RB Leipzig31 Oct · away
Pick: RB Leipzig 43% · hit
W
Rot-Weiß Essen1–2RB Leipzig27 Oct · away
Pick: RB Leipzig 41% · hit
W
RB Leipzig4–0SV Elversberg24 Oct · home
Pick: RB Leipzig 43% · hit
L
Real Madrid4–1RB Leipzig21 Oct · away
Pick: Real Madrid 65% · hit
L
Bayern München6–1RB Leipzig17 Oct · away
Pick: Bayern München 63% · hit

FC Augsburg

L
FC Augsburg1–2SC Freiburg31 Oct · home
Pick: SC Freiburg 46% · hit
W
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach2–4FC Augsburg27 Oct · away
Pick: SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 50% · missed
D
FC Augsburg1–1Union Berlin24 Oct · home
Pick: Union Berlin 44% · missed
L
SV Elversberg4–3FC Augsburg17 Oct · away
Pick: SV Elversberg 54% · hit
W
FC Augsburg3–0FC Schalke 0430 Aug · home
Pick: FC Schalke 04 42% · missed

About this match

RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg meet in Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. The match is played at Red Bull Arena, Leipzig. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: RB Leipzig win 52.7%, draw 19.2%, FC Augsburg win 28.1%. The pick is RB Leipzig win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.5%. Both teams to score: 61.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.