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Liga III - Serie 1 Romania Group 1 - 13 2026

Bradul Putna vs Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

Bradul Putna Home · Elo 1,494
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ Away · Elo 1,405
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bradul Putna win
Bradul Putna winPick
47.0%
Draw
21.9%
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ win
31.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.3%
No48.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.4%
Under 2.530.6%

How much we know

Bradul Putna history2 matches
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ history41 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.0%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Bradul Putna are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bradul Putna are rated 89 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,494 against 1,405. On rating alone Bradul Putna would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Bradul Putna score far more

    5.00 goals a game over 2 matches for Bradul Putna, against 1.00 over 41 for Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ.

  • Bradul Putna concede fewer

    Bradul Putna concede 1.00 a game, Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 2.02.

  • Bradul Putna games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of Bradul Putna matches, against 59% for Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 6 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bradul Putna
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1494.2
ELO
1405.4
2
ELO · Matches
41
1494.2
Current Team ELO
1405.4
1405.4
Current Opponent ELO
1494.2
88.77
Current ELO Difference
-88.77
0.63
Expected score
0.37
2
History Matches
41
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.13
49.49
Overperformance
41.52
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.32
Recent form16 signals
160
2
Matches
5
1.50
PPG
0.20
5.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
3.40
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
2
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.20
5.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
2.80
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
5.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
4.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.80
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
5.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
2
Matches
41
1.50
PPG
0.95
50.0%
Win rate
24.4%
0.0%
Draw rate
22.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
53.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.4%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.5%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.8%
5.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
23
1.50
PPG
0.96
50.0%
Win rate
26.1%
0.0%
Draw rate
17.4%
50.0%
Loss rate
56.5%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
5.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.43
2
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
5.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
63.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
46.3%
5.00
Goals for per game
0.96
100.0%
Scoring rate
56.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
39.1%
2
History Matches
41
5.00
Goals Mean
1.00
4.00
Goals Std
1.01
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
63.4%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
24.4%
50.0%
Scored 3+ rate
9.8%
5.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
2.02
50.0%
Conceding rate
78.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.17
50.0%
Conceding rate
78.3%
2
History Matches
41
1.00
Conceded Mean
2.02
1.00
Conceded Std
1.75
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.1%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
36.6%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
43.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.6%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
43.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
2
History Matches
41
0.63
Result entropy
0.92
5.00
Goal Difference Std
2.28
36.91
Stability score
7.97
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
2
Eligible Matches
41
1
Lead Matches
9
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.70
0
Trailing Matches
21
—
Non-loss rate
23.8%
—
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
2
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
2.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.37
0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
2.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.12
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
100.9
Rest days
100.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
1
Normal Rest History Matches
21
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.71
0
Long Rest History Matches
17
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.06
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
4
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.44
—
Portability PPG Range
0.89
—
Portability Score
53.03
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
2
Clean History Matches
41
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO88.77
PPG0.55
GF4.00
GA-1.02
PPG0.54
PPG1.30
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-39
Clean-sheet rate28.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.37
History Matches-21
Clean-sheet rate28.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.43
History Matches-39
Goals Mean4.00
Goals Std2.99
Scored 1+ rate36.6%
Scored 2+ rate25.6%
Scored 3+ rate40.2%
Venue Goals Mean4.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean4.40
Recent 10 Goals Std3.08
History Matches-39
Conceded Mean-1.02
Conceded Std-0.75
Clean-sheet rate28.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.37
Venue Conceded Mean-1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches-39
Result entropy-0.29
Goal Difference Std2.72
Stability score28.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std3.40
Eligible Matches-39
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate33.3%
Lead Points Retention0.30
Trailing Matches-21
Halftime Coverage Matches-39
First Half Goals For Mean2.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean1.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-20
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.71
Long Rest History Matches-17
Current Team ELO88.77
Current Opponent ELO-88.77
Current ELO Difference177.5
Expected score0.25
History Matches-39
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance7.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bradul Putna

W
Bradul Putna3–0Gheorgheni31 Oct · home
Pick: Gheorgheni 41% · missed
D
CSM Adjud1–1Bradul Putna24 Oct · away
Pick: CSM Adjud 61% · missed
W
Bradul Putna3–1FC Bacău II17 Oct · home
Pick: Bradul Putna 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

L
CSM FC Vaslui3–1Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ31 Oct · away
Pick: CSM FC Vaslui 52% · hit
L
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ0–2Târgu Secuiesc24 Oct · home
Pick: Târgu Secuiesc 44% · hit
D
Gheorgheni2–2Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ17 Oct · away
Pick: Gheorgheni 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bradul Putna and Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ meet in Liga III - Serie 1 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Bradul Putna win 47.0%, draw 21.9%, Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ win 31.1%. The pick is Bradul Putna win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.4%. Both teams to score: 51.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.