ScoreProb
1. Division Norway Round 30 2026

Bryne vs Kongsvinger

Bryne Home · Elo 1,503
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kongsvinger Away · Elo 1,644
Bryne Stadion Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kongsvinger win
Bryne win
32.3%
Draw
22.5%
Kongsvinger winPick
45.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.0%
No38.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.2%
Under 2.538.8%

How much we know

Bryne history72 matches
Kongsvinger history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Kongsvinger are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kongsvinger are rated 141 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,644 against 1,503. On rating alone Kongsvinger would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Kongsvinger score far more

    1.29 goals a game over 72 matches for Bryne, against 2.67 over 70 for Kongsvinger.

  • Kongsvinger concede fewer

    Bryne concede 1.67 a game, Kongsvinger 1.50.

  • Kongsvinger games more often go over 2.5 goals

    57% of Bryne matches, against 77% for Kongsvinger. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bryne
Kongsvinger
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1503.0
ELO
1644.4
72
ELO · Matches
70
1503.0
Current Team ELO
1644.4
1644.4
Current Opponent ELO
1503.0
-141.4
Current ELO Difference
141.4
0.31
Expected score
0.69
72
History Matches
70
0.00
Residual Mean
0.10
50.12
Overperformance
57.44
0.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.40
1.40
Goals for per game
5.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
2.20
1.30
Goals for per game
4.20
0.70
Goals against per game
2.00
70.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
4.20
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
3.57
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
70
1.22
PPG
1.96
33.3%
Win rate
57.1%
22.2%
Draw rate
24.3%
44.4%
Loss rate
18.6%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
92.9%
56.9%
Over 2.5 rate
77.1%
31.9%
Over 3.5 rate
52.9%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
37
1.34
PPG
1.92
34.3%
Win rate
54.1%
31.4%
Draw rate
29.7%
34.3%
Loss rate
16.2%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
89.2%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
70.3%
37.1%
Over 3.5 rate
51.4%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.05
35
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.29
Goals for per game
2.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
91.4%
51.4%
BTTS rate
71.4%
1.43
Goals for per game
2.73
74.3%
Scoring rate
89.2%
60.0%
BTTS rate
73.0%
1.37
Goals for per game
2.67
68.4%
Scoring rate
94.4%
42.1%
BTTS rate
83.3%
72
History Matches
70
1.29
Goals Mean
2.67
1.24
Goals Std
2.37
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
91.4%
38.9%
Scored 2+ rate
70.0%
15.3%
Scored 3+ rate
40.0%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
2.73
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.67
Goals against per game
1.50
81.9%
Conceding rate
78.6%
1.63
Goals against per game
1.46
82.9%
Conceding rate
81.1%
1.42
Goals against per game
1.56
73.7%
Conceding rate
88.9%
72
History Matches
70
1.67
Conceded Mean
1.50
1.22
Conceded Std
1.11
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.6%
26.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.6%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
8.6%
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
10.8%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
5.6%
18.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
8.6%
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
10.8%
18.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
70
0.97
Result entropy
0.89
1.86
Goal Difference Std
2.70
3.44
Stability score
11.15
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
69
16
Lead Matches
34
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.87
29
Trailing Matches
22
31.0%
Non-loss rate
54.5%
6.9%
Trailing Win Rate
22.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
1.13
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.55
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.92
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
41
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.85
26
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.12
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
18
1.53
PPG
2.17
47.4%
Win rate
66.7%
10.5%
Draw rate
16.7%
42.1%
Loss rate
16.7%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
88.9%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
55.6%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
19
Current Competition Matches
18
1.53
Current Competition PPG
2.17
-0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.11
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.36
0.92
Portability PPG Range
1.05
62.74
Portability Score
58.12
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-141.4
PPG-0.73
GF-1.38
GA0.17
PPG-0.64
PPG-0.58
PPG0.00
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate24.8%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate14.9%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-1.38
Goals Std-1.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.25
Scored 2+ rate-0.31
Scored 3+ rate-0.25
Venue Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-2.67
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.17
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate1.4%
Conceded 3+ rate7.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.40
History Matches2
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.84
Stability score-7.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-2.40
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-18
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.24
Trailing Win Rate-0.16
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.64
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.16
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.14
Portability Score4.62
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.25
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.85
Current Team ELO-141.4
Current Opponent ELO141.4
Current ELO Difference-282.7
Expected score-0.39
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-7.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bryne

W
hodd0–3Bryne1 Nov · away
Pick: hodd 38% · missed
L
Egersund1–0Bryne28 Oct · away
Pick: Egersund 40% · hit
D
Bryne3–3Egersund25 Oct · home
Pick: Bryne 39% · missed
L
Ranheim4–2Bryne18 Oct · away
Pick: Bryne 42% · missed
D
Bryne1–1Raufoss14 Oct · home
Pick: Bryne 58% · missed

Kongsvinger

L
Kongsvinger1–2Stabaek2 Nov · home
Pick: Kongsvinger 39% · missed
L
Sogndal3–1Kongsvinger25 Oct · away
Pick: Kongsvinger 56% · missed
W
Kongsvinger4–0Sandnes ULF18 Oct · home
Pick: Kongsvinger 71% · hit
L
Stromsgodset5–1Kongsvinger14 Oct · away
Pick: Kongsvinger 41% · missed
W
Moss0–2Kongsvinger5 Oct · away
Pick: Kongsvinger 58% · hit

About this match

Bryne and Kongsvinger meet in 1. Division on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Bryne Stadion. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Bryne win 32.3%, draw 22.5%, Kongsvinger win 45.2%. The pick is Kongsvinger win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.2%. Both teams to score: 62.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.