ScoreProb
1. Division Norway Round 30 2026

Sogndal vs hodd

Sogndal Home · Elo 1,493
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
hodd Away · Elo 1,515
Fosshaugane Campus, Sogndal Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sogndal win
Sogndal winPick
39.7%
Draw
22.9%
hodd win
37.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.3%
No34.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.5%
Under 2.534.5%

How much we know

Sogndal history69 matches
hodd history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Sogndal are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,493 against 1,515. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Sogndal score more

    1.84 goals a game over 69 matches for Sogndal, against 1.28 over 64 for hodd.

  • Defences are close

    Sogndal concede 1.80 a game, hodd 1.72.

  • Sogndal games more often go over 2.5 goals

    70% of Sogndal matches, against 58% for hodd. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sogndal
hodd
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1493.2
ELO
1514.7
69
ELO · Matches
64
1493.2
Current Team ELO
1514.7
1514.7
Current Opponent ELO
1493.2
-21.57
Current ELO Difference
21.57
0.47
Expected score
0.53
69
History Matches
64
0.00
Residual Mean
0.02
49.93
Overperformance
51.21
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.40
3.00
Goals for per game
2.40
1.40
Goals against per game
2.80
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.90
2.60
Goals for per game
2.10
2.30
Goals against per game
2.10
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
2.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.70
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.64
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
3.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
64
1.35
PPG
1.27
36.2%
Win rate
34.4%
26.1%
Draw rate
23.4%
37.7%
Loss rate
42.2%
92.8%
Over 1.5 rate
78.1%
69.6%
Over 2.5 rate
57.8%
47.8%
Over 3.5 rate
34.4%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
31
1.36
PPG
1.19
33.3%
Win rate
29.0%
36.1%
Draw rate
32.3%
30.6%
Loss rate
38.7%
91.7%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
29.0%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
36
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.84
Goals for per game
1.28
82.6%
Scoring rate
71.9%
71.0%
BTTS rate
64.1%
1.81
Goals for per game
1.13
86.1%
Scoring rate
71.0%
72.2%
BTTS rate
64.5%
1.78
Goals for per game
1.78
72.2%
Scoring rate
72.2%
61.1%
BTTS rate
66.7%
69
History Matches
64
1.84
Goals Mean
1.28
1.56
Goals Std
1.12
82.6%
Scored 1+ rate
71.9%
50.7%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
26.1%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.81
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.80
Goals against per game
1.72
85.5%
Conceding rate
85.9%
1.72
Goals against per game
1.71
83.3%
Conceding rate
83.9%
2.39
Goals against per game
1.78
88.9%
Conceding rate
88.9%
69
History Matches
64
1.80
Conceded Mean
1.72
1.29
Conceded Std
1.35
53.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.3%
24.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
1.72
Venue Conceded Mean
1.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.1%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
13.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
14.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.1%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
13.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
14.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
64
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
2.15
Goal Difference Std
1.69
1.13
Stability score
2.49
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
62
24
Lead Matches
22
70.8%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.77
23
Trailing Matches
22
30.4%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
8.7%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.83
Rest days
78.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
26
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
18
1.17
PPG
1.67
33.3%
Win rate
50.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
16.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
77.8%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
18
Current Competition Matches
18
1.17
Current Competition PPG
1.67
-0.61
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.26
1.58
Portability PPG Range
0.67
49.06
Portability Score
66.04
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-21.57
PPG0.08
GF0.56
GA0.08
PPG-0.50
PPG0.17
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate0.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.56
Goals Std0.43
Scored 1+ rate10.7%
Scored 2+ rate13.2%
Scored 3+ rate13.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.41
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Conceded 2+ rate8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.15
History Matches5
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.46
Stability score-1.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.91
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate3.2%
Trailing Win Rate4.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.61
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range0.92
Portability Score-16.98
Rest days0.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.33
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Current Team ELO-21.57
Current Opponent ELO21.57
Current ELO Difference-43.13
Expected score-0.06
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sogndal

L
Ranheim2–1Sogndal1 Nov · away
Pick: Ranheim 50% · hit
L
Lillestrom2–1Sogndal28 Oct · away
Pick: Lillestrom 58% · hit
W
Sogndal3–1Kongsvinger25 Oct · home
Pick: Kongsvinger 56% · missed
W
Sogndal2–1Raufoss21 Oct · home
Pick: Sogndal 53% · hit
D
Egersund3–3Sogndal18 Oct · away
Pick: Egersund 55% · missed

hodd

L
hodd0–3Bryne1 Nov · home
Pick: hodd 38% · missed
L
Asane3–0hodd28 Oct · away
Pick: Asane 40% · hit
L
Haugesund3–2hodd25 Oct · away
Pick: Haugesund 58% · hit
W
hodd5–1Raufoss18 Oct · home
Pick: hodd 54% · hit
D
hodd1–1Ranheim14 Oct · home
Pick: hodd 44% · missed

About this match

Sogndal and hodd meet in 1. Division on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Fosshaugane Campus, Sogndal. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sogndal win 39.7%, draw 22.9%, hodd win 37.4%. The pick is Sogndal win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.5%. Both teams to score: 65.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.