ScoreProb
1. Division Norway Round 30 2026

Stabaek vs Stromsgodset

Stabaek Home · Elo 1,601
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Stromsgodset Away · Elo 1,522
Nadderud Stadion, Bekkestua Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Stabaek win
Stabaek winPick
57.0%
Draw
19.8%
Stromsgodset win
23.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.2%
No36.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.2%
Under 2.529.8%

How much we know

Stabaek history72 matches
Stromsgodset history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Stabaek are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Stabaek are rated 78 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,601 against 1,522. On rating alone Stabaek would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.99 goals a game over 72 matches for Stabaek, against 1.85 over 66 for Stromsgodset.

  • Stabaek concede fewer

    Stabaek concede 1.56 a game, Stromsgodset 1.85.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Stabaek matches, against 71% for Stromsgodset. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stabaek
Stromsgodset
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1600.6
ELO
1522.4
72
ELO · Matches
66
1600.6
Current Team ELO
1522.4
1522.4
Current Opponent ELO
1600.6
78.26
Current ELO Difference
-78.26
0.61
Expected score
0.39
72
History Matches
66
0.07
Residual Mean
0.01
55.57
Overperformance
50.82
0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.00
3.60
Goals for per game
2.40
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
100.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
1.80
3.00
Goals for per game
3.20
0.90
Goals against per game
1.50
80.0%
Win rate
50.0%
3.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.20
1.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.94
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.65
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
66
1.54
PPG
1.24
43.1%
Win rate
34.8%
25.0%
Draw rate
19.7%
31.9%
Loss rate
45.5%
90.3%
Over 1.5 rate
92.4%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
71.2%
47.2%
Over 3.5 rate
42.4%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
36
1.67
PPG
1.25
47.2%
Win rate
36.1%
25.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
27.8%
Loss rate
47.2%
94.4%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
72.2%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
52.8%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.57
36
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.99
Goals for per game
1.85
91.7%
Scoring rate
81.8%
62.5%
BTTS rate
63.6%
2.17
Goals for per game
2.08
97.2%
Scoring rate
86.1%
66.7%
BTTS rate
63.9%
2.67
Goals for per game
2.61
94.4%
Scoring rate
94.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
61.1%
72
History Matches
66
1.99
Goals Mean
1.85
1.34
Goals Std
1.54
91.7%
Scored 1+ rate
81.8%
56.9%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
27.8%
Scored 3+ rate
27.3%
2.17
Venue Goals Mean
2.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.56
Goals against per game
1.85
70.8%
Conceding rate
80.3%
1.61
Goals against per game
1.92
69.4%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.44
55.6%
Conceding rate
66.7%
72
History Matches
66
1.56
Conceded Mean
1.85
1.42
Conceded Std
1.52
47.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.0%
22.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.8%
1.61
Venue Conceded Mean
1.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
2.8%
Failed-to-score rate
13.9%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
5.6%
Failed-to-score rate
5.6%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
2.8%
Failed-to-score rate
13.9%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
66
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
2.17
Goal Difference Std
2.38
2.25
Stability score
4.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
66
31
Lead Matches
21
64.5%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.71
21
Trailing Matches
27
38.1%
Non-loss rate
18.5%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
7.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
1.14
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.05
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.92
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.58
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
27
Long Rest History Matches
32
1.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.03
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
18
2.17
PPG
1.94
66.7%
Win rate
55.6%
16.7%
Draw rate
27.8%
16.7%
Loss rate
16.7%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
94.4%
72.2%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
61.1%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
18
Current Competition Matches
18
2.17
Current Competition PPG
1.94
1.61
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.17
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.57
1.74
Portability PPG Range
1.28
42.86
Portability Score
46.54
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO78.26
PPG0.30
GF0.14
GA-0.29
PPG0.22
PPG0.42
PPG1.00
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate9.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.14
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate9.8%
Scored 2+ rate6.9%
Scored 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.27
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate9.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.39
History Matches6
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score-2.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.78
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate19.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.22
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.44
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.47
Portability Score-3.69
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.33
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.29
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.67
Current Team ELO78.26
Current Opponent ELO-78.26
Current ELO Difference156.5
Expected score0.22
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.75
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Stabaek

W
Kongsvinger1–2Stabaek2 Nov · away
Pick: Kongsvinger 39% · missed
W
Stabaek2–0ODD Ballklubb25 Oct · home
Pick: Stabaek 65% · hit
W
Asane0–1Stabaek18 Oct · away
Pick: Stabaek 58% · hit
W
Stabaek4–1Sandnes ULF14 Oct · home
Pick: Stabaek 69% · hit
L
hodd2–1Stabaek30 Aug · away
Pick: Stabaek 56% · missed

Stromsgodset

W
Stromsgodset3–0Moss1 Nov · home
Pick: Stromsgodset 59% · hit
L
Molde4–1Stromsgodset28 Oct · away
Pick: Molde 68% · hit
L
Strommen1–0Stromsgodset25 Oct · away
Pick: Stromsgodset 47% · missed
W
Stromsgodset5–0Haugesund18 Oct · home
Pick: Stromsgodset 47% · hit
W
Stromsgodset5–1Kongsvinger14 Oct · home
Pick: Kongsvinger 41% · missed

About this match

Stabaek and Stromsgodset meet in 1. Division on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Nadderud Stadion, Bekkestua. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Stabaek win 57.0%, draw 19.8%, Stromsgodset win 23.2%. The pick is Stabaek win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.2%. Both teams to score: 63.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.