ScoreProb
1. Division Norway Round 30 2026

Raufoss vs Egersund

Raufoss Home · Elo 1,462
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Egersund Away · Elo 1,554
NAMMO Stadion, Raufoss Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Egersund win
Raufoss win
29.5%
Draw
21.8%
Egersund winPick
48.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.2%
No37.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.8%
Under 2.537.2%

How much we know

Raufoss history68 matches
Egersund history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Egersund are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Egersund are rated 92 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,554 against 1,462. On rating alone Egersund would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Egersund score more

    1.56 goals a game over 68 matches for Raufoss, against 1.89 over 70 for Egersund.

  • Egersund concede fewer

    Raufoss concede 1.76 a game, Egersund 1.57.

  • Raufoss games more often go over 2.5 goals

    68% of Raufoss matches, against 59% for Egersund. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Raufoss
Egersund
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1462.0
ELO
1553.6
68
ELO · Matches
70
1462.0
Current Team ELO
1553.6
1553.6
Current Opponent ELO
1462.0
-91.62
Current ELO Difference
91.62
0.37
Expected score
0.63
68
History Matches
70
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.03
49.12
Overperformance
52.24
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
2.40
2.40
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.60
1.70
Goals for per game
2.30
2.60
Goals against per game
2.30
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.68
2.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
2.29
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.73
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
70
1.26
PPG
1.61
35.3%
Win rate
45.7%
20.6%
Draw rate
24.3%
44.1%
Loss rate
30.0%
83.8%
Over 1.5 rate
84.3%
67.6%
Over 2.5 rate
58.6%
41.2%
Over 3.5 rate
45.7%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
38
1.48
PPG
1.53
42.5%
Win rate
42.1%
20.0%
Draw rate
26.3%
37.5%
Loss rate
31.6%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
57.5%
Over 2.5 rate
55.3%
35.0%
Over 3.5 rate
39.5%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
40
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.56
Goals for per game
1.89
79.4%
Scoring rate
81.4%
63.2%
BTTS rate
58.6%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.87
80.0%
Scoring rate
86.8%
55.0%
BTTS rate
65.8%
1.22
Goals for per game
1.72
72.2%
Scoring rate
77.8%
61.1%
BTTS rate
44.4%
68
History Matches
70
1.56
Goals Mean
1.89
1.31
Goals Std
1.51
79.4%
Scored 1+ rate
81.4%
41.2%
Scored 2+ rate
52.9%
22.1%
Scored 3+ rate
31.4%
1.60
Venue Goals Mean
1.87
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.76
Goals against per game
1.57
80.9%
Conceding rate
72.9%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.47
70.0%
Conceding rate
76.3%
2.39
Goals against per game
1.78
88.9%
Conceding rate
61.1%
68
History Matches
70
1.76
Conceded Mean
1.57
1.49
Conceded Std
1.35
48.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.6%
26.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.9%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.2%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.2%
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
70
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
2.15
Goal Difference Std
2.03
4.06
Stability score
3.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
70
20
Lead Matches
26
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
65.4%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.73
23
Trailing Matches
21
13.0%
Non-loss rate
38.1%
4.3%
Trailing Win Rate
19.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.11
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.79
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
36
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
27
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.37
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.54
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
18
0.89
PPG
1.44
27.8%
Win rate
44.4%
5.6%
Draw rate
11.1%
66.7%
Loss rate
44.4%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
72.2%
Over 2.5 rate
72.2%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.41
18
Current Competition Matches
18
0.89
Current Competition PPG
1.44
-1.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.06
6
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.18
1.21
Portability PPG Range
0.46
48.75
Portability Score
73.44
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-91.62
PPG-0.35
GF-0.33
GA0.19
PPG-0.56
PPG-0.05
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate2.0%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Failed-to-score rate6.8%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.33
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.41
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.19
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate3.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.55
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score0.80
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.09
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate24.6%
Lead Points Retention0.19
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate-0.15
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.56
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.11
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.34
Portability PPG Range0.75
Portability Score-24.69
Rest days0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO-91.62
Current Opponent ELO91.62
Current ELO Difference-183.2
Expected score-0.26
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Raufoss

L
Lyn4–0Raufoss1 Nov · away
Pick: Lyn 53% · hit
L
Raufoss1–3Ranheim24 Oct · home
Pick: Raufoss 41% · missed
L
Sogndal2–1Raufoss21 Oct · away
Pick: Sogndal 53% · hit
L
hodd5–1Raufoss18 Oct · away
Pick: hodd 54% · hit
D
Bryne1–1Raufoss14 Oct · away
Pick: Bryne 58% · missed

Egersund

W
Egersund3–1Strommen1 Nov · home
Pick: Egersund 57% · hit
W
Egersund1–0Bryne28 Oct · home
Pick: Egersund 40% · hit
D
Bryne3–3Egersund25 Oct · away
Pick: Bryne 39% · missed
D
Egersund3–3Sogndal18 Oct · home
Pick: Egersund 55% · missed
D
Moss0–0Egersund14 Oct · away
Pick: Egersund 44% · missed

About this match

Raufoss and Egersund meet in 1. Division on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at NAMMO Stadion, Raufoss. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Raufoss win 29.5%, draw 21.8%, Egersund win 48.7%. The pick is Egersund win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.8%. Both teams to score: 62.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.