ScoreProb
FAW Championship Wales North - 14 2026

Buckley Town vs Brickfield Rangers

Buckley Town Home · Elo 1,389
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Brickfield Rangers Away · Elo 1,514
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Brickfield Rangers win
Buckley Town win
16.7%
Draw
15.5%
Brickfield Rangers winPick
67.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.0%
No49.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.2%
Under 2.529.8%

How much we know

Buckley Town history48 matches
Brickfield Rangers history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Brickfield Rangers are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Brickfield Rangers are rated 124 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,514 against 1,389. On rating alone Brickfield Rangers would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.48 goals a game over 48 matches for Buckley Town, against 1.51 over 37 for Brickfield Rangers.

  • Brickfield Rangers concede fewer

    Buckley Town concede 2.38 a game, Brickfield Rangers 1.51.

  • Buckley Town games more often go over 2.5 goals

    73% of Buckley Town matches, against 59% for Brickfield Rangers. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Buckley Town
Brickfield Rangers
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1389.2
ELO
1513.6
48
ELO · Matches
37
1389.2
Current Team ELO
1513.6
1513.6
Current Opponent ELO
1389.2
-124.5
Current ELO Difference
124.5
0.33
Expected score
0.67
48
History Matches
37
-0.12
Residual Mean
0.02
41.67
Overperformance
51.08
-0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
3.00
0.80
Goals for per game
3.20
2.80
Goals against per game
0.40
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
2.10
0.90
Goals for per game
2.60
2.90
Goals against per game
0.90
10.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.60
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.91
2.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
2.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.53
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
37
0.94
PPG
1.41
27.1%
Win rate
43.2%
12.5%
Draw rate
10.8%
60.4%
Loss rate
45.9%
85.4%
Over 1.5 rate
81.1%
72.9%
Over 2.5 rate
59.5%
47.9%
Over 3.5 rate
35.1%
2.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
19
0.91
PPG
1.05
26.1%
Win rate
31.6%
13.0%
Draw rate
10.5%
60.9%
Loss rate
57.9%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
91.3%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
60.9%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
2.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.95
23
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.48
Goals for per game
1.51
66.7%
Scoring rate
62.2%
52.1%
BTTS rate
40.5%
1.91
Goals for per game
1.16
78.3%
Scoring rate
52.6%
65.2%
BTTS rate
31.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
3.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
48
History Matches
37
1.48
Goals Mean
1.51
1.62
Goals Std
1.67
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
62.2%
39.6%
Scored 2+ rate
40.5%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
21.6%
1.91
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.38
Goals against per game
1.51
81.3%
Conceding rate
73.0%
2.83
Goals against per game
1.89
87.0%
Conceding rate
73.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
48
History Matches
37
2.38
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.81
Conceded Std
1.55
64.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.1%
41.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.9%
2.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.89
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.8%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
47.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.8%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
47.4%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
37
0.84
Result entropy
0.87
2.62
Goal Difference Std
2.77
16.43
Stability score
12.59
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
37
11
Lead Matches
12
63.6%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.92
24
Trailing Matches
11
12.5%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
4.2%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
1.10
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
1.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.05
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.83
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
26
Normal Rest History Matches
18
0.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
20
Long Rest History Matches
17
0.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.12
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.25
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.25
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
6
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.88
0.75
Portability PPG Range
1.77
58.58
Portability Score
36.14
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-124.5
PPG-0.47
GF-0.03
GA0.86
PPG-2.75
PPG-0.14
PPG-2.80
PPG-1.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches11
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate4.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.76
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.08
History Matches11
Conceded Mean0.86
Conceded Std0.26
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate29.4%
Conceded 3+ rate22.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.93
Recent 10 Conceded Mean2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.29
History Matches11
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score3.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.08
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.28
Lead Points Retention-0.25
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.53
Portability PPG Range-1.02
Portability Score22.43
Rest days0.81
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.78
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Current Team ELO-124.5
Current Opponent ELO124.5
Current ELO Difference-248.9
Expected score-0.34
History Matches11
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-9.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.47

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Buckley Town

L
Newtown AFC2–0Buckley Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Newtown AFC 66% · hit
L
Buckley Town0–2Holyhead Hotspur24 Oct · home
Pick: Holyhead Hotspur 43% · hit
D
Buckley Town2–2Colwyn Bay17 Oct · home
Pick: Colwyn Bay 61% · missed
L
Caersws2–0Buckley Town31 Aug · away
Pick: Caersws 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Brickfield Rangers

D
Brickfield Rangers1–1Bala Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Brickfield Rangers 48% · missed
W
Porthmadog0–1Brickfield Rangers24 Oct · away
Pick: Brickfield Rangers 50% · hit
W
Brickfield Rangers2–0Llangefni Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Brickfield Rangers 70% · hit
W
Brickfield Rangers2–0Ruthin Town31 Aug · home
Pick: Brickfield Rangers 62% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Buckley Town and Brickfield Rangers meet in FAW Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Buckley Town win 16.7%, draw 15.5%, Brickfield Rangers win 67.7%. The pick is Brickfield Rangers win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.2%. Both teams to score: 51.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.