ScoreProb
FAW Championship Wales North - 14 2026

Porthmadog vs Llanuwchllyn

Porthmadog Home · Elo 1,514
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Llanuwchllyn Away · Elo 1,479
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Porthmadog win
Porthmadog winPick
78.0%
Draw
13.4%
Llanuwchllyn win
8.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.2%
No41.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.9%
Under 2.525.1%

How much we know

Porthmadog history9 matches
Llanuwchllyn history4 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (78.0%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Porthmadog are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Porthmadog are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,514 against 1,479. On rating alone Porthmadog would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Porthmadog score far more

    1.56 goals a game over 9 matches for Porthmadog, against 0.75 over 4 for Llanuwchllyn.

  • Porthmadog concede fewer

    Porthmadog concede 1.44 a game, Llanuwchllyn 3.25.

  • Llanuwchllyn games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Porthmadog matches, against 75% for Llanuwchllyn. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Porthmadog
Llanuwchllyn
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1514.5
ELO
1479.4
9
ELO · Matches
4
1514.5
Current Team ELO
1479.4
1479.4
Current Opponent ELO
1514.5
35.09
Current ELO Difference
-35.09
0.55
Expected score
0.45
9
History Matches
4
0.11
Residual Mean
-0.31
53.48
Overperformance
44.89
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.31
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
0.75
1.80
Goals for per game
0.75
1.20
Goals against per game
3.25
60.0%
Win rate
25.0%
9
Matches
4
1.67
PPG
0.75
1.56
Goals for per game
0.75
1.44
Goals against per game
3.25
44.4%
Win rate
25.0%
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.75
1.07
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.25
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.79
0.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.51
1.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.29
Overall performance9 signals
90
9
Matches
4
1.67
PPG
0.75
44.4%
Win rate
25.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
22.2%
Loss rate
75.0%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.29
Venue performance10 signals
100
6
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
0.00
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
6
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.56
Goals for per game
0.75
88.9%
Scoring rate
50.0%
77.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.17
Goals for per game
0.33
83.3%
Scoring rate
33.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
75.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
9
History Matches
4
1.56
Goals Mean
0.75
1.07
Goals Std
0.83
88.9%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.17
Venue Goals Mean
0.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.44
Goals against per game
3.25
77.8%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.50
Goals against per game
4.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.67
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
9
History Matches
4
1.44
Conceded Mean
3.25
1.17
Conceded Std
1.79
44.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
75.0%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
50.0%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
4.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
9
History Matches
4
0.97
Result entropy
0.51
1.37
Goal Difference Std
2.29
3.44
Stability score
48.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
9
Eligible Matches
4
3
Lead Matches
0
33.3%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.44
Lead Points Retention
—
1
Trailing Matches
3
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
9
Halftime Coverage Matches
4
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.50
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.82
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
3
Normal Rest History Matches
2
2.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
5
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
2.50
PPG
1.00
75.0%
Win rate
33.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.62
4
Current Competition Matches
3
2.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.67
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.75
Portability PPG Std
—
1.50
Portability PPG Range
—
40.00
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
9
Clean History Matches
4
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO35.09
PPG0.92
GF0.81
GA-1.81
PPG1.50
PPG1.33
PPG1.25
PPG0.92
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate22.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.39
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.50
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.81
Goals Std0.24
Scored 1+ rate38.9%
Scored 2+ rate8.3%
Scored 3+ rate33.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.83
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.81
Recent 10 Goals Std0.24
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-1.81
Conceded Std-0.62
Clean-sheet rate22.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.31
Conceded 3+ rate-0.39
Venue Conceded Mean-2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.62
History Matches5
Result entropy0.45
Goal Difference Std-0.92
Stability score-45.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.92
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches3
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.97
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.67
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-6.22
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.83
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match1.40
Current Team ELO35.09
Current Opponent ELO-35.09
Current ELO Difference70.18
Expected score0.10
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.42
Overperformance8.59
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.42

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Porthmadog

D
Guilsfield2–2Porthmadog31 Oct · away
Pick: Guilsfield 45% · missed
L
Porthmadog0–1Brickfield Rangers24 Oct · home
Pick: Brickfield Rangers 50% · hit
L
GAP Connah S Quay FC4–0Porthmadog16 Oct · away
Pick: GAP Connah S Quay FC 72% · hit
D
Holyhead Hotspur2–2Porthmadog31 Aug · away
Pick: Porthmadog 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Llanuwchllyn

L
Llanuwchllyn3–4Denbigh Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Denbigh Town 49% · hit
D
Llanuwchllyn3–3Bala Town24 Oct · home
Pick: Bala Town 55% · missed
L
Newtown AFC7–0Llanuwchllyn17 Oct · away
Pick: Newtown AFC 80% · hit
W
Llanuwchllyn2–0Gresford Athletic31 Aug · home
Pick: Llanuwchllyn 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Porthmadog and Llanuwchllyn meet in FAW Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Porthmadog win 78.0%, draw 13.4%, Llanuwchllyn win 8.6%. The pick is Porthmadog win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.9%. Both teams to score: 58.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.