ScoreProb
FAW Championship Wales South - 14 2026

Swansea University vs Cardiff Draconians

Swansea University Home · Elo 1,539
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cardiff Draconians Away · Elo 1,473
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Swansea University win
Swansea University winPick
52.6%
Draw
19.9%
Cardiff Draconians win
27.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.1%
No41.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.1%
Under 2.529.9%

How much we know

Swansea University history6 matches
Cardiff Draconians history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Swansea University are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Swansea University are rated 65 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,539 against 1,473. On rating alone Swansea University would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Swansea University score far more

    2.83 goals a game over 6 matches for Swansea University, against 1.74 over 38 for Cardiff Draconians.

  • Swansea University concede fewer

    Swansea University concede 1.33 a game, Cardiff Draconians 1.71.

  • Swansea University games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of Swansea University matches, against 68% for Cardiff Draconians. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Swansea University
Cardiff Draconians
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1538.5
ELO
1473.4
6
ELO · Matches
38
1538.5
Current Team ELO
1473.4
1473.4
Current Opponent ELO
1538.5
65.15
Current ELO Difference
-65.15
0.59
Expected score
0.41
6
History Matches
38
0.29
Residual Mean
-0.04
56.62
Overperformance
47.35
0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.40
3.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
6
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
1.20
2.83
Goals for per game
1.90
1.33
Goals against per game
2.00
83.3%
Win rate
30.0%
2.83
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.21
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.81
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
2.13
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.41
0.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
3.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.21
Overall performance9 signals
90
6
Matches
38
2.50
PPG
1.34
83.3%
Win rate
39.5%
0.0%
Draw rate
15.8%
16.7%
Loss rate
44.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.3%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
68.4%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
3.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
20
1.50
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
4.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
2
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.83
Goals for per game
1.74
100.0%
Scoring rate
73.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
63.2%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
65.0%
3.50
Goals for per game
1.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
6
History Matches
38
2.83
Goals Mean
1.74
1.21
Goals Std
1.41
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
73.7%
83.3%
Scored 2+ rate
52.6%
66.7%
Scored 3+ rate
31.6%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.40
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.71
50.0%
Conceding rate
81.6%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.75
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.25
Goals against per game
1.75
25.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
6
History Matches
38
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.71
2.13
Conceded Std
1.34
16.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.4%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.3%
3.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
6
History Matches
38
0.41
Result entropy
0.93
3.04
Goal Difference Std
1.81
58.99
Stability score
7.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
6
Eligible Matches
38
3
Lead Matches
8
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
2
Trailing Matches
17
100.0%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
100.0%
Trailing Win Rate
23.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
2.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.80
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
2
Normal Rest History Matches
19
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.84
3
Long Rest History Matches
17
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.94
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
3.00
PPG
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
4
Current Competition Matches
4
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
3.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
2
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.57
—
Portability PPG Range
1.33
—
Portability Score
46.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
6
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO65.15
PPG1.16
GF1.10
GA-0.38
PPG2.00
PPG0.50
PPG1.00
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-32
Clean-sheet rate31.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate25.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-32
Goals Mean1.10
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate26.3%
Scored 2+ rate30.7%
Scored 3+ rate35.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.93
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.60
History Matches-32
Conceded Mean-0.38
Conceded Std0.80
Clean-sheet rate31.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.31
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.72
History Matches-32
Result entropy-0.52
Goal Difference Std1.23
Stability score51.67
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.83
Eligible Matches-32
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-15
Non-loss rate64.7%
Trailing Win Rate76.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-32
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean0.97
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.75
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days0.78
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.16
Long Rest History Matches-14
Long Rest Points Per Match1.06
Current Team ELO65.15
Current Opponent ELO-65.15
Current ELO Difference130.3
Expected score0.19
History Matches-32
Residual Mean0.33
Overperformance9.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.36

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Swansea University

L
Ynyshir Albions4–2Swansea University31 Oct · away
Pick: Swansea University 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cardiff Draconians

W
Cardiff Draconians2–0Afan Lido31 Oct · home
Pick: Afan Lido 44% · missed
L
Trethomas Bluebirds3–1Cardiff Draconians23 Oct · away
Pick: Trethomas Bluebirds 45% · hit
W
Radnor Valley1–3Cardiff Draconians17 Oct · away
Pick: Radnor Valley 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Swansea University and Cardiff Draconians meet in FAW Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Swansea University win 52.6%, draw 19.9%, Cardiff Draconians win 27.5%. The pick is Swansea University win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.1%. Both teams to score: 58.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.