ScoreProb
FAW Championship Wales North - 14 2026

Rhyl vs Holyhead Hotspur

Rhyl Home · Elo 1,512
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Holyhead Hotspur Away · Elo 1,459
Belle Vue, Rhyl Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rhyl win
Rhyl winPick
59.6%
Draw
19.3%
Holyhead Hotspur win
21.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.3%
No37.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.2%
Under 2.534.8%

How much we know

Rhyl history43 matches
Holyhead Hotspur history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Rhyl are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rhyl are rated 53 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,512 against 1,459. On rating alone Rhyl would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.60 goals a game over 43 matches for Rhyl, against 1.49 over 37 for Holyhead Hotspur.

  • Defences are close

    Rhyl concede 1.77 a game, Holyhead Hotspur 1.76.

  • Rhyl games more often go over 2.5 goals

    72% of Rhyl matches, against 59% for Holyhead Hotspur. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rhyl
Holyhead Hotspur
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1511.7
ELO
1458.8
43
ELO · Matches
37
1511.7
Current Team ELO
1458.8
1458.8
Current Opponent ELO
1511.7
52.83
Current ELO Difference
-52.83
0.58
Expected score
0.42
43
History Matches
37
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.05
51.07
Overperformance
46.58
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.30
1.40
Goals for per game
1.50
1.70
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
37
1.53
PPG
1.14
46.5%
Win rate
32.4%
14.0%
Draw rate
16.2%
39.5%
Loss rate
51.4%
81.4%
Over 1.5 rate
75.7%
72.1%
Over 2.5 rate
59.5%
44.2%
Over 3.5 rate
43.2%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
18
1.91
PPG
0.72
59.1%
Win rate
16.7%
13.6%
Draw rate
22.2%
27.3%
Loss rate
61.1%
86.4%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
81.8%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
22
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.60
Goals for per game
1.49
79.1%
Scoring rate
70.3%
65.1%
BTTS rate
54.1%
2.05
Goals for per game
1.06
90.9%
Scoring rate
55.6%
72.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.25
66.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
75.0%
43
History Matches
37
1.60
Goals Mean
1.49
1.16
Goals Std
1.41
79.1%
Scored 1+ rate
70.3%
51.2%
Scored 2+ rate
40.5%
25.6%
Scored 3+ rate
24.3%
2.05
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.77
Goals against per game
1.76
81.4%
Conceding rate
83.8%
1.59
Goals against per game
2.17
77.3%
Conceding rate
94.4%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
43
History Matches
37
1.77
Conceded Mean
1.76
1.46
Conceded Std
1.46
51.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.5%
25.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.0%
1.59
Venue Conceded Mean
2.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
20.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
5.6%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
20.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
5.6%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
37
0.91
Result entropy
0.91
1.94
Goal Difference Std
2.04
9.18
Stability score
8.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
37
13
Lead Matches
13
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.82
14
Trailing Matches
15
35.7%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
28.6%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
1.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.02
Rest days
77.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
22
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
17
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.59
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
4
1.33
PPG
0.75
33.3%
Win rate
25.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
75.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.87
3
Current Competition Matches
4
1.33
Current Competition PPG
0.75
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.89
Portability PPG Std
0.23
2.50
Portability PPG Range
0.45
35.93
Portability Score
68.97
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO52.83
PPG0.40
GF0.12
GA0.01
PPG0.58
PPG1.19
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate17.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.35
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.12
Goals Std-0.24
Scored 1+ rate8.8%
Scored 2+ rate10.6%
Scored 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.99
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.01
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Conceded 2+ rate10.6%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.35
History Matches6
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score0.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.12
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate15.7%
Trailing Win Rate21.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.58
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.83
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.67
Portability PPG Range2.05
Portability Score-33.03
Rest days6.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.32
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.29
Current Team ELO52.83
Current Opponent ELO-52.83
Current ELO Difference105.7
Expected score0.15
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rhyl

L
Mold Alexandra2–1Rhyl31 Oct · away
Pick: Mold Alexandra 44% · hit
D
Rhyl2–2Newtown AFC24 Oct · home
Pick: Newtown AFC 44% · missed
W
Denbigh Town1–3Rhyl31 Aug · away
Pick: Denbigh Town 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Holyhead Hotspur

W
Holyhead Hotspur3–1Penrhyncoch31 Oct · home
Pick: Holyhead Hotspur 51% · hit
W
Buckley Town0–2Holyhead Hotspur24 Oct · away
Pick: Holyhead Hotspur 43% · hit
W
Bala Town3–4Holyhead Hotspur17 Oct · away
Pick: Bala Town 54% · missed
D
Holyhead Hotspur2–2Porthmadog31 Aug · home
Pick: Porthmadog 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Rhyl and Holyhead Hotspur meet in FAW Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Belle Vue, Rhyl. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Rhyl win 59.6%, draw 19.3%, Holyhead Hotspur win 21.2%. The pick is Rhyl win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.2%. Both teams to score: 62.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.