ScoreProb
FAW Championship Wales South - 14 2026

Carmarthen Town vs Aberystwyth Town

Carmarthen Town Home · Elo 1,524
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Aberystwyth Town Away · Elo 1,473
Richmond Park, Carmarthen Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Aberystwyth Town win
Carmarthen Town win
34.5%
Draw
25.6%
Aberystwyth Town winPick
39.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.3%
No40.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.1%
Under 2.539.9%

How much we know

Carmarthen Town history46 matches
Aberystwyth Town history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Aberystwyth Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Carmarthen Town are rated 51 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,524 against 1,473. On rating alone Carmarthen Town would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Carmarthen Town score more

    1.80 goals a game over 46 matches for Carmarthen Town, against 1.22 over 46 for Aberystwyth Town.

  • Defences are close

    Carmarthen Town concede 1.63 a game, Aberystwyth Town 1.61.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Carmarthen Town matches, against 57% for Aberystwyth Town. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Carmarthen Town
Aberystwyth Town
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1524.1
ELO
1473.4
46
ELO · Matches
46
1524.1
Current Team ELO
1473.4
1473.4
Current Opponent ELO
1524.1
50.70
Current ELO Difference
-50.70
0.57
Expected score
0.43
46
History Matches
46
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.03
52.04
Overperformance
48.10
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
2.40
Goals for per game
2.40
2.60
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.10
2.70
Goals for per game
1.70
2.00
Goals against per game
1.70
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.90
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
46
1.46
PPG
1.24
37.0%
Win rate
37.0%
34.8%
Draw rate
13.0%
28.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
76.1%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
52.2%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
43.5%
Over 3.5 rate
32.6%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
23
1.33
PPG
1.35
29.2%
Win rate
43.5%
45.8%
Draw rate
4.3%
25.0%
Loss rate
52.2%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
60.9%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
39.1%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
24
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.80
Goals for per game
1.22
76.1%
Scoring rate
60.9%
60.9%
BTTS rate
45.7%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.22
75.0%
Scoring rate
65.2%
62.5%
BTTS rate
47.8%
2.75
Goals for per game
3.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
46
1.80
Goals Mean
1.22
1.84
Goals Std
1.37
76.1%
Scored 1+ rate
60.9%
39.1%
Scored 2+ rate
30.4%
26.1%
Scored 3+ rate
19.6%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.63
Goals against per game
1.61
76.1%
Conceding rate
78.3%
1.46
Goals against per game
1.87
75.0%
Conceding rate
78.3%
2.25
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
46
1.63
Conceded Mean
1.61
1.40
Conceded Std
1.41
41.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
30.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.2%
1.46
Venue Conceded Mean
1.87
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
46
0.99
Result entropy
0.89
1.98
Goal Difference Std
2.12
0.57
Stability score
10.78
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
46
19
Lead Matches
7
52.6%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
1.00
10
Trailing Matches
15
30.0%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
1.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.26
Rest days
77.26
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
22
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.92
22
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
2.25
PPG
2.00
75.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
4
Current Competition Matches
3
2.25
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.50
1.00
Portability PPG Range
1.22
54.06
Portability Score
49.98
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO50.70
PPG0.22
GF0.59
GA0.02
PPG0.25
PPG-0.01
PPG0.40
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.59
Goals Std0.47
Scored 1+ rate15.2%
Scored 2+ rate8.7%
Scored 3+ rate6.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate15.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.36
History Matches0
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score-10.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.12
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate-0.47
Lead Points Retention-0.33
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.22
Portability Score4.07
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.76
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Current Team ELO50.70
Current Opponent ELO-50.70
Current ELO Difference101.4
Expected score0.14
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance3.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Carmarthen Town

L
Pontardawe Town2–1Carmarthen Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Carmarthen Town 48% · missed
L
Carmarthen Town1–3Caerphilly Athletic23 Oct · home
Pick: Carmarthen Town 76% · missed
L
Carmarthen Town4–5Newport City17 Oct · home
Pick: Carmarthen Town 38% · missed
L
Carmarthen Town2–3Trethomas Bluebirds31 Aug · home
Pick: Carmarthen Town 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Aberystwyth Town

W
Aberystwyth Town2–1Trethomas Bluebirds31 Oct · home
Pick: Aberystwyth Town 57% · hit
W
Aberystwyth Town5–1Prestatyn Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Aberystwyth Town 69% · hit
W
Aberystwyth Town4–0llanelli AFC31 Aug · home
Pick: Aberystwyth Town 66% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Carmarthen Town and Aberystwyth Town meet in FAW Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Richmond Park, Carmarthen. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Carmarthen Town win 34.5%, draw 25.6%, Aberystwyth Town win 39.8%. The pick is Aberystwyth Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.1%. Both teams to score: 59.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.