Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Match result probability Model pick: Burton Albion win
Burton Albion winPick
63.8%
Draw
19.2%
AFC Rushden & Diamonds win
17.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.0%
No49.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.557.7%
Under 2.542.3%
How much we know
Burton Albion history85 matches
AFC Rushden & Diamonds history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Burton Albion
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.
Why Burton Albion are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,494 against 1,498. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.18 goals a game over 85 matches for Burton Albion, against 1.24 over 50 for AFC Rushden & Diamonds.
-
Burton Albion concede fewer
Burton Albion concede 1.21 a game, AFC Rushden & Diamonds 1.38.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
49% of Burton Albion matches, against 56% for AFC Rushden & Diamonds. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AFC Rushden & Diamonds@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1494.0
ELO
1498.5
85
ELO · Matches
50
1494.0
Current Team ELO
1498.5
1498.5
Current Opponent ELO
1494.0
-4.48
Current ELO Difference
4.48
0.49
Expected score
0.51
85
History Matches
50
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.01
50.23
Overperformance
49.31
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.60
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.00
0.90
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals 90
85
Matches
50
1.28
PPG
1.44
32.9%
Win rate
40.0%
29.4%
Draw rate
24.0%
37.6%
Loss rate
36.0%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
49.4%
Over 2.5 rate
56.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals 100
45
Matches
27
1.42
PPG
1.37
40.0%
Win rate
40.7%
22.2%
Draw rate
14.8%
37.8%
Loss rate
44.4%
71.1%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
17.8%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
45
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.18
Goals for per game
1.24
69.4%
Scoring rate
68.0%
49.4%
BTTS rate
48.0%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.30
71.1%
Scoring rate
66.7%
48.9%
BTTS rate
48.1%
85
History Matches
50
1.18
Goals Mean
1.24
1.19
Goals Std
1.14
69.4%
Scored 1+ rate
68.0%
29.4%
Scored 2+ rate
36.0%
10.6%
Scored 3+ rate
16.0%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.21
Goals against per game
1.38
70.6%
Conceding rate
68.0%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.59
71.1%
Conceding rate
70.4%
85
History Matches
50
1.21
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.05
Conceded Std
1.26
35.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.0%
12.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.0%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
28.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
85
History Matches
50
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.73
0.46
Stability score
1.98
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
85
Eligible Matches
43
26
Lead Matches
14
65.4%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.81
24
Trailing Matches
13
20.8%
Non-loss rate
7.7%
4.2%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
85
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
77.04
Rest days
119.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
71
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
10
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.13
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
4
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.40
1.50
Portability PPG Range
0.97
47.22
Portability Score
55.45
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
85
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-4.48
PPG-0.16
GF-0.06
GA-0.17
PPG0.05
PPG1.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches35
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches35
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate1.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.38
History Matches35
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std-0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.15
History Matches35
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score-1.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.63
Eligible Matches42
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate13.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches42
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.53
Portability Score-8.22
Rest days-42.80
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches31
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Current Team ELO-4.48
Current Opponent ELO4.48
Current ELO Difference-8.96
Expected score-0.01
History Matches35
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Burton Albion
L
Wycombe2–0Burton Albion31 Oct · away
Pick: Wycombe 47% · hit W
Burton Albion2–1Leyton Orient24 Oct · home
Pick: Burton Albion 37% · hit D
Burton Albion0–0Bradford20 Oct · home
Pick: Bradford 45% · missed D
Peterborough2–2Burton Albion17 Oct · away
Pick: Peterborough 43% · missed L
Notts County2–1Burton Albion29 Aug · away
Pick: Notts County 40% · hit AFC Rushden & Diamonds
W
AFC Rushden & Diamonds2–1Morecambe17 Oct · home
Pick: Morecambe 50% · missed L
Chasetown3–1AFC Rushden & Diamonds29 Aug · away
Pick: Chasetown 51% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Burton Albion and AFC Rushden & Diamonds meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Burton Albion win 63.8%, draw 19.2%, AFC Rushden & Diamonds win 17.0%. The pick is Burton Albion win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.7%. Both teams to score: 51.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.