ScoreProb
1st Division Albania Round 10 2026

Bylis vs Kastrioti Krujë

Bylis Home · Elo 1,486
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kastrioti Krujë Away · Elo 1,447
Stadiumi Adush Muca, Ballsh Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bylis win
Bylis winPick
47.7%
Draw
28.0%
Kastrioti Krujë win
24.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.5%
No47.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.0%
Under 2.547.0%

How much we know

Bylis history55 matches
Kastrioti Krujë history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Bylis are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bylis are rated 39 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,486 against 1,447. On rating alone Bylis would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Kastrioti Krujë score more

    1.04 goals a game over 55 matches for Bylis, against 1.18 over 50 for Kastrioti Krujë.

  • Bylis concede fewer

    Bylis concede 1.45 a game, Kastrioti Krujë 1.74.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Bylis matches, against 56% for Kastrioti Krujë. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bylis
Kastrioti Krujë
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1485.6
ELO
1447.1
55
ELO · Matches
50
1485.6
Current Team ELO
1447.1
1447.1
Current Opponent ELO
1485.6
38.58
Current ELO Difference
-38.58
0.56
Expected score
0.44
55
History Matches
50
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.05
49.31
Overperformance
46.14
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
2.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.60
1.30
Goals for per game
1.40
1.30
Goals against per game
2.50
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.69
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
1.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.34
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
50
1.11
PPG
1.02
27.3%
Win rate
28.0%
29.1%
Draw rate
18.0%
43.6%
Loss rate
54.0%
67.3%
Over 1.5 rate
72.0%
49.1%
Over 2.5 rate
56.0%
23.6%
Over 3.5 rate
34.0%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
26
1.46
PPG
0.54
39.3%
Win rate
15.4%
28.6%
Draw rate
7.7%
32.1%
Loss rate
76.9%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
39.3%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
17.9%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
28
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.04
Goals for per game
1.18
65.5%
Scoring rate
68.0%
52.7%
BTTS rate
56.0%
1.04
Goals for per game
0.85
64.3%
Scoring rate
53.8%
46.4%
BTTS rate
46.2%
55
History Matches
50
1.04
Goals Mean
1.18
0.93
Goals Std
1.14
65.5%
Scored 1+ rate
68.0%
30.9%
Scored 2+ rate
32.0%
7.3%
Scored 3+ rate
12.0%
1.04
Venue Goals Mean
0.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.45
Goals against per game
1.74
78.2%
Conceding rate
82.0%
1.04
Goals against per game
2.12
71.4%
Conceding rate
88.5%
55
History Matches
50
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.74
1.22
Conceded Std
1.31
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.0%
18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.0%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
2.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
50
0.98
Result entropy
0.91
1.44
Goal Difference Std
1.65
2.11
Stability score
9.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
50
6
Lead Matches
11
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
45.5%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.55
15
Trailing Matches
19
33.3%
Non-loss rate
15.8%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
180.9
Rest days
183.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
40
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.94
14
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.79
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.16
0.95
Portability PPG Range
0.33
54.43
Portability Score
75.47
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO38.58
PPG0.09
GF-0.14
GA-0.29
PPG0.93
PPG1.40
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate3.8%
Failed-to-score rate2.5%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate17.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.90
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate3.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.28
History Matches5
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.22
Stability score-7.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.61
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate21.2%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate17.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range0.63
Portability Score-21.04
Rest days-3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.31
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Current Team ELO38.58
Current Opponent ELO-38.58
Current ELO Difference77.16
Expected score0.11
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.38

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bylis

W
Burreli0–2Bylis1 Nov · away
Pick: Bylis 35% · hit
D
Bylis0–0Besa Kavajë28 Oct · home
Pick: Besa Kavajë 40% · missed
D
Bylis2–2Pogradeci23 Oct · home
Pick: Pogradeci 36% · missed
D
Korabi Peshkopi0–0Bylis17 Oct · away
Pick: Korabi Peshkopi 42% · missed
W
Bylis4–1Albpetrol Patos7 Oct · home
Pick: Bylis 63% · hit

Kastrioti Krujë

W
Kastrioti Krujë2–0Korabi Peshkopi1 Nov · home
Pick: Korabi Peshkopi 42% · missed
L
FK Kukesi1–0Kastrioti Krujë28 Oct · away
Pick: FK Kukesi 49% · hit
L
Kastrioti Krujë0–1Iliria Fushë-Krujë24 Oct · home
Pick: Kastrioti Krujë 39% · missed
L
Besëlidhja Lezhë4–1Kastrioti Krujë17 Oct · away
Pick: Besëlidhja Lezhë 36% · hit
W
Kastrioti Krujë3–1Luzi 20087 Oct · home
Pick: Kastrioti Krujë 50% · hit

About this match

Bylis and Kastrioti Krujë meet in 1st Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadiumi Adush Muca, Ballsh. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bylis win 47.7%, draw 28.0%, Kastrioti Krujë win 24.3%. The pick is Bylis win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.0%. Both teams to score: 52.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.