ScoreProb
1st Division Albania Round 10 2026

Iliria Fushë-Krujë vs Oriku

Iliria Fushë-Krujë Home · Elo 1,523
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Oriku Away · Elo 1,556
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Iliria Fushë-Krujë win
Iliria Fushë-Krujë winPick
59.3%
Draw
21.0%
Oriku win
19.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.1%
No51.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.3%
Under 2.552.7%

How much we know

Iliria Fushë-Krujë history43 matches
Oriku history12 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Iliria Fushë-Krujë are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Oriku are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,556 against 1,523. On rating alone Oriku would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Oriku score more

    1.49 goals a game over 43 matches for Iliria Fushë-Krujë, against 2.00 over 12 for Oriku.

  • Oriku concede fewer

    Iliria Fushë-Krujë concede 1.09 a game, Oriku 0.67.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Iliria Fushë-Krujë matches, against 42% for Oriku. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
Oriku
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1523.1
ELO
1556.4
43
ELO · Matches
12
1523.1
Current Team ELO
1556.4
1556.4
Current Opponent ELO
1523.1
-33.28
Current ELO Difference
33.28
0.45
Expected score
0.55
43
History Matches
12
0.03
Residual Mean
0.22
51.88
Overperformance
58.20
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.20
0.90
Goals for per game
2.10
1.10
Goals against per game
0.70
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.02
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
12
1.58
PPG
2.33
44.2%
Win rate
75.0%
25.6%
Draw rate
8.3%
30.2%
Loss rate
16.7%
74.4%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
46.5%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
16.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
7
1.86
PPG
2.14
54.5%
Win rate
71.4%
22.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
22.7%
Loss rate
28.6%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
13.6%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.66
22
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.49
Goals for per game
2.00
76.7%
Scoring rate
83.3%
53.5%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.68
Goals for per game
1.86
81.8%
Scoring rate
71.4%
54.5%
BTTS rate
14.3%
43
History Matches
12
1.49
Goals Mean
2.00
1.53
Goals Std
1.87
76.7%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
37.2%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
14.0%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.68
Venue Goals Mean
1.86
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.09
Goals against per game
0.67
69.8%
Conceding rate
50.0%
0.95
Goals against per game
0.57
68.2%
Conceding rate
42.9%
43
History Matches
12
1.09
Conceded Mean
0.67
0.96
Conceded Std
0.75
30.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
16.7%
7.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.95
Venue Conceded Mean
0.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
57.1%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
57.1%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
12
0.98
Result entropy
0.66
1.79
Goal Difference Std
2.21
2.49
Stability score
34.33
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
10
15
Lead Matches
4
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
1.00
11
Trailing Matches
2
45.5%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
10
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.30
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.20
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
183.9
Rest days
388.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
6
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.67
17
Long Rest History Matches
5
1.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.83
Portability PPG Std
—
1.67
Portability PPG Range
—
37.50
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
12
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-33.28
PPG-0.75
GF-0.51
GA0.43
PPG-0.28
PPG0.00
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches31
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate6.6%
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches31
Goals Mean-0.51
Goals Std-0.34
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.08
History Matches31
Conceded Mean0.43
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Conceded 2+ rate13.6%
Conceded 3+ rate7.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.16
History Matches31
Result entropy0.32
Goal Difference Std-0.42
Stability score-31.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.82
Eligible Matches33
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate45.5%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches33
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-204.1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches19
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.35
Long Rest History Matches12
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO-33.28
Current Opponent ELO33.28
Current ELO Difference-66.57
Expected score-0.10
History Matches31
Residual Mean-0.19
Overperformance-6.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Iliria Fushë-Krujë

W
Sopoti Librazhd2–3Iliria Fushë-Krujë2 Nov · away
Pick: Iliria Fushë-Krujë 42% · hit
W
Iliria Fushë-Krujë2–1Flamurtari29 Oct · home
Pick: Iliria Fushë-Krujë 36% · hit
W
Kastrioti Krujë0–1Iliria Fushë-Krujë24 Oct · away
Pick: Kastrioti Krujë 39% · missed
W
Iliria Fushë-Krujë1–0Burreli17 Oct · home
Pick: Iliria Fushë-Krujë 42% · hit
W
Iliria Fushë-Krujë4–3Veleçiku Koplik7 Oct · home
Pick: Iliria Fushë-Krujë 73% · hit

Oriku

L
Oriku0–1Besëlidhja Lezhë1 Nov · home
Pick: Oriku 54% · missed
D
Pogradeci0–0Oriku28 Oct · away
Pick: Pogradeci 64% · missed
D
Sopoti Librazhd1–1Oriku24 Oct · away
Pick: Sopoti Librazhd 41% · missed
L
Oriku1–4Flamurtari16 Oct · home
Pick: Flamurtari 36% · hit
L
Oriku1–2Butrinti Sarandë7 Oct · home
Pick: Oriku 46% · missed

About this match

Iliria Fushë-Krujë and Oriku meet in 1st Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Iliria Fushë-Krujë win 59.3%, draw 21.0%, Oriku win 19.7%. The pick is Iliria Fushë-Krujë win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.3%. Both teams to score: 48.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.