ScoreProb
1st Division Albania Round 10 2026

FK Kukesi vs Sopoti Librazhd

FK Kukesi Home · Elo 1,457
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sopoti Librazhd Away · Elo 1,546
Kukes Arena Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FK Kukesi win
FK Kukesi winPick
53.7%
Draw
22.5%
Sopoti Librazhd win
23.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.9%
No51.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.9%
Under 2.546.1%

How much we know

FK Kukesi history53 matches
Sopoti Librazhd history12 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why FK Kukesi are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sopoti Librazhd are rated 89 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,546 against 1,457. On rating alone Sopoti Librazhd would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Sopoti Librazhd score far more

    1.02 goals a game over 53 matches for FK Kukesi, against 1.83 over 12 for Sopoti Librazhd.

  • Sopoti Librazhd concede fewer

    FK Kukesi concede 1.53 a game, Sopoti Librazhd 1.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of FK Kukesi matches, against 50% for Sopoti Librazhd. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 13 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FK Kukesi
Sopoti Librazhd
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1456.5
ELO
1545.9
53
ELO · Matches
12
1456.5
Current Team ELO
1545.9
1545.9
Current Opponent ELO
1456.5
-89.39
Current ELO Difference
89.39
0.37
Expected score
0.63
53
History Matches
12
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.16
47.51
Overperformance
56.01
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.06
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
12
0.94
PPG
2.00
24.5%
Win rate
58.3%
20.8%
Draw rate
25.0%
54.7%
Loss rate
16.7%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
50.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
18.9%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
8
1.37
PPG
1.50
37.0%
Win rate
37.5%
25.9%
Draw rate
37.5%
37.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
48.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
27
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.02
Goals for per game
1.83
67.9%
Scoring rate
91.7%
52.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.26
Goals for per game
1.50
77.8%
Scoring rate
87.5%
55.6%
BTTS rate
75.0%
53
History Matches
12
1.02
Goals Mean
1.83
0.96
Goals Std
1.14
67.9%
Scored 1+ rate
91.7%
22.6%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
9.4%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
1.26
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.53
Goals against per game
1.00
79.2%
Conceding rate
58.3%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.50
74.1%
Conceding rate
87.5%
53
History Matches
12
1.53
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.14
Conceded Std
1.15
49.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
18.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.3%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
12
0.91
Result entropy
0.87
1.63
Goal Difference Std
1.99
8.89
Stability score
12.65
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
12
10
Lead Matches
5
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
1.00
19
Trailing Matches
2
10.5%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
12
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
86.85
Rest days
181.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
33
Normal Rest History Matches
5
0.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.40
18
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.11
Portability PPG Std
—
0.21
Portability PPG Range
—
82.35
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
12
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-89.39
PPG-1.06
GF-0.81
GA0.53
PPG-0.13
PPG0.60
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches41
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate23.7%
History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate13.4%
Failed-to-score rate9.7%
History Matches41
Goals Mean-0.81
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.24
Scored 2+ rate-0.27
Scored 3+ rate-0.24
Venue Goals Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.45
History Matches41
Conceded Mean0.53
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Conceded 2+ rate24.1%
Conceded 3+ rate10.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.44
History Matches41
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.36
Stability score-3.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.01
Eligible Matches39
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.30
Lead Points Retention-0.27
Trailing Matches17
Non-loss rate-0.39
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches39
First Half Goals For Mean-0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-95.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches28
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.49
Long Rest History Matches12
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Current Team ELO-89.39
Current Opponent ELO89.39
Current ELO Difference-178.8
Expected score-0.25
History Matches41
Residual Mean-0.19
Overperformance-8.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FK Kukesi

L
Flamurtari2–0FK Kukesi2 Nov · away
Pick: Flamurtari 50% · hit
W
FK Kukesi1–0Kastrioti Krujë28 Oct · home
Pick: FK Kukesi 49% · hit
W
Burreli1–2FK Kukesi24 Oct · away
Pick: Burreli 41% · missed
W
FK Kukesi2–0Besa Kavajë16 Oct · home
Pick: Besa Kavajë 46% · missed
W
FK Kukesi3–2Erzeni Shijak7 Oct · home
Pick: FK Kukesi 68% · hit

Sopoti Librazhd

L
Sopoti Librazhd2–3Iliria Fushë-Krujë2 Nov · home
Pick: Iliria Fushë-Krujë 42% · hit
L
Besëlidhja Lezhë5–2Sopoti Librazhd28 Oct · away
Pick: Sopoti Librazhd 40% · missed
D
Sopoti Librazhd1–1Oriku24 Oct · home
Pick: Sopoti Librazhd 41% · missed
D
Pogradeci2–2Sopoti Librazhd17 Oct · away
Pick: Pogradeci 65% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FK Kukesi and Sopoti Librazhd meet in 1st Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Kukes Arena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FK Kukesi win 53.7%, draw 22.5%, Sopoti Librazhd win 23.8%. The pick is FK Kukesi win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.9%. Both teams to score: 48.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.