ScoreProb
1st Division Albania Round 10 2026

Besa Kavajë vs Burreli

Besa Kavajë Home · Elo 1,568
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Burreli Away · Elo 1,481
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Besa Kavajë win
Besa Kavajë winPick
55.0%
Draw
26.8%
Burreli win
18.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.0%
No52.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.2%
Under 2.550.8%

How much we know

Besa Kavajë history56 matches
Burreli history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Besa Kavajë are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Besa Kavajë are rated 87 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,568 against 1,481. On rating alone Besa Kavajë would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Besa Kavajë score more

    1.48 goals a game over 56 matches for Besa Kavajë, against 1.00 over 51 for Burreli.

  • Besa Kavajë concede fewer

    Besa Kavajë concede 1.04 a game, Burreli 1.18.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Besa Kavajë matches, against 39% for Burreli. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 13 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Besa Kavajë
Burreli
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1567.6
ELO
1480.8
56
ELO · Matches
51
1567.6
Current Team ELO
1480.8
1480.8
Current Opponent ELO
1567.6
86.82
Current ELO Difference
-86.82
0.62
Expected score
0.38
56
History Matches
51
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.01
54.60
Overperformance
48.98
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
0.40
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
0.60
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.90
60.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.70
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
51
1.68
PPG
1.37
48.2%
Win rate
37.3%
23.2%
Draw rate
25.5%
28.6%
Loss rate
37.3%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
60.8%
46.4%
Over 2.5 rate
39.2%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
15.7%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
24
1.86
PPG
1.13
51.7%
Win rate
29.2%
31.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
17.2%
Loss rate
45.8%
72.4%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
41.4%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
29
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.48
Goals for per game
1.00
76.8%
Scoring rate
54.9%
53.6%
BTTS rate
31.4%
1.59
Goals for per game
1.00
82.8%
Scoring rate
50.0%
55.2%
BTTS rate
33.3%
56
History Matches
51
1.48
Goals Mean
1.00
1.18
Goals Std
1.17
76.8%
Scored 1+ rate
54.9%
44.6%
Scored 2+ rate
29.4%
21.4%
Scored 3+ rate
9.8%
1.59
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.04
Goals against per game
1.18
66.1%
Conceding rate
58.8%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.63
62.1%
Conceding rate
70.8%
56
History Matches
51
1.04
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.03
Conceded Std
1.28
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.3%
8.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.7%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
23.2%
Failed-to-score rate
45.1%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
23.2%
Failed-to-score rate
45.1%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
51
0.95
Result entropy
0.99
1.48
Goal Difference Std
1.68
4.54
Stability score
1.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
51
20
Lead Matches
14
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.81
10
Trailing Matches
16
40.0%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
86.85
Rest days
188.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
35
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.69
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
20
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.38
1.78
Portability PPG Range
0.88
44.01
Portability Score
57.07
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO86.82
PPG0.31
GF0.48
GA-0.14
PPG0.74
PPG1.80
PPG1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate8.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.48
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate21.9%
Scored 2+ rate15.2%
Scored 3+ rate11.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.05
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.95
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score3.23
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.22
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate18.6%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate27.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range0.90
Portability Score-13.06
Rest days-101.1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.39
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.26
Current Team ELO86.82
Current Opponent ELO-86.82
Current ELO Difference173.6
Expected score0.24
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.44

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Besa Kavajë

W
Besa Kavajë3–2Pogradeci1 Nov · home
Pick: Besa Kavajë 41% · hit
D
Bylis0–0Besa Kavajë28 Oct · away
Pick: Besa Kavajë 40% · missed
W
Besa Kavajë2–0Korabi Peshkopi24 Oct · home
Pick: Besa Kavajë 56% · hit
L
FK Kukesi2–0Besa Kavajë16 Oct · away
Pick: Besa Kavajë 46% · missed
W
Besa Kavajë4–1Devolli7 Oct · home
Pick: Besa Kavajë 77% · hit

Burreli

L
Burreli0–2Bylis1 Nov · home
Pick: Bylis 35% · hit
L
Korabi Peshkopi1–0Burreli28 Oct · away
Pick: Korabi Peshkopi 42% · hit
L
Burreli1–2FK Kukesi24 Oct · home
Pick: Burreli 41% · missed
L
Iliria Fushë-Krujë1–0Burreli17 Oct · away
Pick: Iliria Fushë-Krujë 42% · hit
L
Burreli2–3Eagle FA7 Oct · home
Pick: Burreli 58% · missed

About this match

Besa Kavajë and Burreli meet in 1st Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Besa Kavajë win 55.0%, draw 26.8%, Burreli win 18.2%. The pick is Besa Kavajë win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.2%. Both teams to score: 48.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.