ScoreProb
1st Division Albania Round 10 2026

Pogradeci vs Besëlidhja Lezhë

Pogradeci Home · Elo 1,629
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Besëlidhja Lezhë Away · Elo 1,525
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pogradeci win
Pogradeci winPick
67.6%
Draw
21.6%
Besëlidhja Lezhë win
10.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.1%
No52.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.8%
Under 2.548.2%

How much we know

Pogradeci history54 matches
Besëlidhja Lezhë history10 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.6%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Pogradeci are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pogradeci are rated 104 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,629 against 1,525. On rating alone Pogradeci would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.72 goals a game over 54 matches for Pogradeci, against 1.60 over 10 for Besëlidhja Lezhë.

  • Pogradeci concede fewer

    Pogradeci concede 0.87 a game, Besëlidhja Lezhë 1.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Pogradeci matches, against 50% for Besëlidhja Lezhë. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pogradeci
Besëlidhja Lezhë
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1629.0
ELO
1524.9
54
ELO · Matches
10
1629.0
Current Team ELO
1524.9
1524.9
Current Opponent ELO
1629.0
104.1
Current ELO Difference
-104.1
0.65
Expected score
0.35
54
History Matches
10
0.12
Residual Mean
0.14
58.71
Overperformance
54.75
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
0.90
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.95
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.29
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.80
59.3%
Win rate
50.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
30.0%
18.5%
Loss rate
20.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
53.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.29
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
4
2.25
PPG
1.00
67.9%
Win rate
25.0%
21.4%
Draw rate
25.0%
10.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
53.6%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
28
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.72
Goals for per game
1.60
70.4%
Scoring rate
70.0%
42.6%
BTTS rate
40.0%
2.14
Goals for per game
0.50
82.1%
Scoring rate
25.0%
39.3%
BTTS rate
25.0%
54
History Matches
10
1.72
Goals Mean
1.60
1.47
Goals Std
1.50
70.4%
Scored 1+ rate
70.0%
53.7%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
31.5%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
2.14
Venue Goals Mean
0.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.87
Goals against per game
1.00
59.3%
Conceding rate
60.0%
0.64
Goals against per game
1.75
46.4%
Conceding rate
75.0%
54
History Matches
10
0.87
Conceded Mean
1.00
0.90
Conceded Std
1.10
20.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
7.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
0.64
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
53.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
53.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
10
0.87
Result entropy
0.94
1.67
Goal Difference Std
2.29
12.93
Stability score
6.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
9
27
Lead Matches
3
96.3%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.98
Lead Points Retention
0.78
10
Trailing Matches
2
30.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
50.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
9
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.22
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
174.9
Rest days
90.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
38
Normal Rest History Matches
2
1.92
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
15
Long Rest History Matches
7
2.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.30
Portability PPG Std
—
0.79
Portability PPG Range
—
62.44
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
10
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO104.1
PPG0.20
GF0.12
GA-0.13
PPG1.25
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches44
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches24
Clean-sheet rate28.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.57
History Matches44
Goals Mean0.12
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate0.4%
Scored 2+ rate3.7%
Scored 3+ rate11.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.64
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.45
History Matches44
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Conceded 2+ rate0.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.15
History Matches44
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.62
Stability score6.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.18
Eligible Matches45
Lead Matches24
Lead Win Rate29.6%
Lead Points Retention0.20
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.40
Halftime Coverage Matches45
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days84.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches36
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.42
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.42
Current Team ELO104.1
Current Opponent ELO-104.1
Current ELO Difference208.2
Expected score0.29
History Matches44
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance3.96
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pogradeci

L
Besa Kavajë3–2Pogradeci1 Nov · away
Pick: Besa Kavajë 41% · hit
D
Pogradeci0–0Oriku28 Oct · home
Pick: Pogradeci 64% · missed
D
Bylis2–2Pogradeci23 Oct · away
Pick: Pogradeci 36% · missed
D
Pogradeci2–2Sopoti Librazhd17 Oct · home
Pick: Pogradeci 65% · missed
W
Pogradeci7–0Delvina7 Oct · home
Pick: Pogradeci 63% · hit

Besëlidhja Lezhë

W
Oriku0–1Besëlidhja Lezhë1 Nov · away
Pick: Oriku 54% · missed
W
Besëlidhja Lezhë5–2Sopoti Librazhd28 Oct · home
Pick: Sopoti Librazhd 40% · missed
L
Flamurtari1–0Besëlidhja Lezhë23 Oct · away
Pick: Flamurtari 65% · hit
W
Besëlidhja Lezhë4–1Kastrioti Krujë17 Oct · home
Pick: Besëlidhja Lezhë 36% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Pogradeci and Besëlidhja Lezhë meet in 1st Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Pogradeci win 67.6%, draw 21.6%, Besëlidhja Lezhë win 10.9%. The pick is Pogradeci win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.8%. Both teams to score: 47.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.