ScoreProb
Australian Championship Australia Round 4 2026

Canberra FC vs Sydney United

Canberra FC Home · Elo 1,649
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sydney United Away · Elo 1,599
Deakin Stadium, Canberra Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sydney United win
Canberra FC win
31.8%
Draw
20.2%
Sydney United winPick
48.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.2%
No42.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.5%
Under 2.532.5%

How much we know

Canberra FC history50 matches
Sydney United history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 08:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.0%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.

Why Sydney United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Canberra FC are rated 50 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,649 against 1,599. On rating alone Canberra FC would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Canberra FC score far more

    3.10 goals a game over 50 matches for Canberra FC, against 1.30 over 70 for Sydney United.

  • Sydney United concede fewer

    Canberra FC concede 1.42 a game, Sydney United 1.11.

  • Canberra FC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    86% of Canberra FC matches, against 43% for Sydney United. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Canberra FC
Sydney United@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1649.0
ELO
1599.4
50
ELO · Matches
70
1649.0
Current Team ELO
1599.4
1599.4
Current Opponent ELO
1649.0
49.59
Current ELO Difference
-49.59
0.57
Expected score
0.43
50
History Matches
70
0.15
Residual Mean
0.07
60.70
Overperformance
55.33
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.20
4.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
100.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
1.90
3.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
0.50
80.0%
Win rate
50.0%
3.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.41
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.77
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.50
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
70
2.14
PPG
1.67
70.0%
Win rate
48.6%
4.0%
Draw rate
21.4%
26.0%
Loss rate
30.0%
96.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
86.0%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
64.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
2.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
36
1.96
PPG
1.56
65.4%
Win rate
44.4%
0.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
34.6%
Loss rate
33.3%
96.2%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
88.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
65.4%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
2.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
26
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
3.10
Goals for per game
1.30
90.0%
Scoring rate
74.3%
66.0%
BTTS rate
45.7%
3.27
Goals for per game
1.31
88.5%
Scoring rate
72.2%
53.8%
BTTS rate
52.8%
50
History Matches
70
3.10
Goals Mean
1.30
2.03
Goals Std
1.07
90.0%
Scored 1+ rate
74.3%
74.0%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
60.0%
Scored 3+ rate
11.4%
3.27
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.42
Goals against per game
1.11
74.0%
Conceding rate
62.9%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.31
65.4%
Conceding rate
72.2%
50
History Matches
70
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.22
Conceded Std
1.09
44.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.3%
14.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.4%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
70
0.66
Result entropy
0.95
2.58
Goal Difference Std
1.55
33.67
Stability score
5.15
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
70
28
Lead Matches
22
96.4%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.77
9
Trailing Matches
22
44.4%
Non-loss rate
31.8%
44.4%
Trailing Win Rate
13.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
1.34
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
1.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.15
Rest days
75.17
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
38
2.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
22
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.84
Portability PPG Std
0.82
1.93
Portability PPG Range
1.94
37.43
Portability Score
37.82
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO49.59
PPG0.47
GF1.80
GA0.31
PPG0.41
PPG0.80
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-20
Goals Mean1.80
Goals Std0.96
Scored 1+ rate15.7%
Scored 2+ rate34.0%
Scored 3+ rate48.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.96
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.64
History Matches-20
Conceded Mean0.31
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate9.7%
Conceded 3+ rate2.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.75
History Matches-20
Result entropy-0.29
Goal Difference Std1.03
Stability score28.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.79
Eligible Matches-20
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate23.7%
Lead Points Retention0.19
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate12.6%
Trailing Win Rate30.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-20
First Half Goals For Mean0.85
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.00
Portability Score-0.39
Rest days0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.85
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.10
Current Team ELO49.59
Current Opponent ELO-49.59
Current ELO Difference99.19
Expected score0.14
History Matches-20
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Canberra FC

L
Canberra FC0–2South Melbourne29 Oct · home
Pick: South Melbourne 51% · hit
L
Canberra FC0–2Sutherland Sharks24 Oct · home
Pick: Canberra FC 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sydney United

W
Sutherland Sharks1–2Sydney United31 Oct · away
Pick: Sydney United 47% · hit
W
Sydney United6–0St. George Saints30 Aug · home
Pick: Sydney United 71% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Canberra FC and Sydney United meet in Australian Championship on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 08:30 UTC. The match is played at Deakin Stadium, Canberra. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Canberra FC win 31.8%, draw 20.2%, Sydney United win 48.0%. The pick is Sydney United win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.5%. Both teams to score: 57.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.