ScoreProb
Premiership Northern Ireland Round 15 2026

Carrick Rangers vs Glentoran

Carrick Rangers Home · Elo 1,539
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Glentoran Away · Elo 1,600
Taylors Avenue, Carrickfergus Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Glentoran win
Carrick Rangers win
35.6%
Draw
22.8%
Glentoran winPick
41.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.8%
No45.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.9%
Under 2.543.1%

How much we know

Carrick Rangers history70 matches
Glentoran history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Glentoran are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Glentoran are rated 61 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,600 against 1,539. On rating alone Glentoran would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.64 goals a game over 70 matches for Carrick Rangers, against 1.68 over 76 for Glentoran.

  • Glentoran concede fewer

    Carrick Rangers concede 1.61 a game, Glentoran 1.09.

  • Carrick Rangers games more often go over 2.5 goals

    64% of Carrick Rangers matches, against 49% for Glentoran. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Carrick Rangers
Glentoran
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1538.6
ELO
1599.6
70
ELO · Matches
76
1538.6
Current Team ELO
1599.6
1599.6
Current Opponent ELO
1538.6
-60.98
Current ELO Difference
60.98
0.41
Expected score
0.59
70
History Matches
76
0.03
Residual Mean
0.07
52.68
Overperformance
55.73
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.20
2.40
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.10
2.40
Goals for per game
1.90
1.50
Goals against per game
1.70
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
2.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.21
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.82
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
76
1.31
PPG
1.66
37.1%
Win rate
46.1%
20.0%
Draw rate
27.6%
42.9%
Loss rate
26.3%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.3%
64.3%
Over 2.5 rate
48.7%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.9%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
35
1.27
PPG
1.63
35.1%
Win rate
48.6%
21.6%
Draw rate
17.1%
43.2%
Loss rate
34.3%
73.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
59.5%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
37.8%
Over 3.5 rate
37.1%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.38
37
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.64
Goals for per game
1.68
77.1%
Scoring rate
80.3%
60.0%
BTTS rate
51.3%
1.49
Goals for per game
1.86
75.7%
Scoring rate
80.0%
59.5%
BTTS rate
48.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
70
History Matches
76
1.64
Goals Mean
1.68
1.61
Goals Std
1.57
77.1%
Scored 1+ rate
80.3%
38.6%
Scored 2+ rate
46.1%
24.3%
Scored 3+ rate
17.1%
1.49
Venue Goals Mean
1.86
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.61
Goals against per game
1.09
78.6%
Conceding rate
64.5%
1.57
Goals against per game
1.23
75.7%
Conceding rate
62.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
33.3%
70
History Matches
76
1.61
Conceded Mean
1.09
1.30
Conceded Std
1.17
48.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.3%
25.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.8%
1.57
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.5%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.7%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.5%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.7%
24.3%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
76
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
2.22
Goal Difference Std
2.09
4.16
Stability score
3.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
76
24
Lead Matches
28
70.8%
Lead Win Rate
82.1%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.87
18
Trailing Matches
17
22.2%
Non-loss rate
41.2%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.90
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.96
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.20
53
Normal Rest History Matches
55
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.69
14
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.73
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
2.00
66.7%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
8
Competition Season Count
10
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.75
Portability PPG Std
0.45
2.07
Portability PPG Range
1.33
40.12
Portability Score
52.60
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-60.98
PPG-0.34
GF-0.04
GA0.52
PPG0.00
PPG-0.36
PPG1.20
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate3.1%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate4.3%
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate7.2%
Venue Goals Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.16
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.52
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate22.3%
Conceded 3+ rate13.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.13
Stability score0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.08
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate5.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.30
Portability PPG Range0.73
Portability Score-12.48
Rest days-0.80
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.20
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Current Team ELO-60.98
Current Opponent ELO60.98
Current ELO Difference-122.0
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Carrick Rangers

L
Cliftonville FC7–1Carrick Rangers31 Oct · away
Pick: Cliftonville FC 53% · hit
D
Carrick Rangers1–1Limavady United24 Oct · home
Pick: Carrick Rangers 60% · missed
W
Carrick Rangers3–0Newry City AFC20 Oct · home
Pick: Carrick Rangers 66% · hit
D
Carrick Rangers2–2Linfield17 Oct · home
Pick: Carrick Rangers 43% · missed
W
Bangor0–4Carrick Rangers29 Aug · away
Pick: Carrick Rangers 43% · hit

Glentoran

D
Coleraine FC1–1Glentoran30 Oct · away
Pick: Coleraine FC 49% · missed
W
Glentoran1–0Limavady United17 Oct · home
Pick: Glentoran 56% · hit
L
Glentoran1–2Crusaders FC29 Aug · home
Pick: Glentoran 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Carrick Rangers and Glentoran meet in Premiership on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Taylors Avenue, Carrickfergus. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Carrick Rangers win 35.6%, draw 22.8%, Glentoran win 41.5%. The pick is Glentoran win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.9%. Both teams to score: 54.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.