ScoreProb
Premiership Northern Ireland Round 15 2026

Bangor vs Crusaders FC

Bangor Home · Elo 1,482
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Crusaders FC Away · Elo 1,480
Clandeboye Park Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Crusaders FC win
Bangor win
33.9%
Draw
23.8%
Crusaders FC winPick
42.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.8%
No40.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.5%
Under 2.540.5%

How much we know

Bangor history72 matches
Crusaders FC history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Crusaders FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,482 against 1,480. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Bangor score more

    1.54 goals a game over 72 matches for Bangor, against 1.36 over 72 for Crusaders FC.

  • Bangor concede fewer

    Bangor concede 1.47 a game, Crusaders FC 1.74.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Bangor matches, against 61% for Crusaders FC. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bangor
Crusaders FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1482.3
ELO
1480.5
72
ELO · Matches
72
1482.3
Current Team ELO
1480.5
1480.5
Current Opponent ELO
1482.3
1.86
Current ELO Difference
-1.86
0.50
Expected score
0.50
72
History Matches
72
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.01
48.85
Overperformance
49.44
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
0.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.50
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
72
1.35
PPG
1.28
37.5%
Win rate
37.5%
22.2%
Draw rate
15.3%
40.3%
Loss rate
47.2%
81.9%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
61.1%
36.1%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
2.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
34
1.40
PPG
1.21
42.9%
Win rate
38.2%
11.4%
Draw rate
5.9%
45.7%
Loss rate
55.9%
88.6%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
68.6%
Over 2.5 rate
67.6%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
35
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.54
Goals for per game
1.36
70.8%
Scoring rate
70.8%
52.8%
BTTS rate
51.4%
1.54
Goals for per game
1.18
68.6%
Scoring rate
73.5%
51.4%
BTTS rate
52.9%
0.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
72
History Matches
72
1.54
Goals Mean
1.36
1.53
Goals Std
1.19
70.8%
Scored 1+ rate
70.8%
44.4%
Scored 2+ rate
41.7%
19.4%
Scored 3+ rate
18.1%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.47
Goals against per game
1.74
76.4%
Conceding rate
76.4%
1.63
Goals against per game
1.88
80.0%
Conceding rate
76.5%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
72
History Matches
72
1.47
Conceded Mean
1.74
1.33
Conceded Std
1.51
36.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
22.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.2%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
31.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
31.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
72
0.97
Result entropy
0.92
2.31
Goal Difference Std
2.05
2.76
Stability score
8.14
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
71
26
Lead Matches
24
73.1%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.86
24
Trailing Matches
30
8.3%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
4.2%
Trailing Win Rate
3.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.99
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
51
Normal Rest History Matches
50
1.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.28
17
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.32
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
2
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
8
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.54
0.97
Portability PPG Range
1.53
55.42
Portability Score
47.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO1.86
PPG0.07
GF0.18
GA-0.26
PPG-2.00
PPG0.19
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate5.0%
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.18
Goals Std0.33
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate2.8%
Scored 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.63
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.26
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.53
History Matches0
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score-5.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.02
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate0.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.83
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.55
Portability Score7.56
Rest days0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.21
Current Team ELO1.86
Current Opponent ELO-1.86
Current ELO Difference3.72
Expected score0.01
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bangor

W
Ballymena United0–1Bangor31 Oct · away
Pick: Ballymena United 52% · missed
L
Bangor1–2Larne24 Oct · home
Pick: Larne 52% · hit
L
Bangor1–2Dungannon Swifts20 Oct · home
Pick: Dungannon Swifts 46% · hit
D
Bangor0–0Dungannon Swifts17 Oct · home
Pick: Dungannon Swifts 47% · missed
L
Bangor2–3Coleraine FC4 Oct · home
Pick: Coleraine FC 64% · hit

Crusaders FC

W
Limavady United1–4Crusaders FC31 Oct · away
Pick: Crusaders FC 39% · hit
L
Crusaders FC0–5Coleraine FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Coleraine FC 48% · hit
L
Ballymena United2–1Crusaders FC17 Oct · away
Pick: Ballymena United 39% · hit
W
Glentoran1–2Crusaders FC29 Aug · away
Pick: Glentoran 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bangor and Crusaders FC meet in Premiership on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Clandeboye Park. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bangor win 33.9%, draw 23.8%, Crusaders FC win 42.2%. The pick is Crusaders FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.5%. Both teams to score: 59.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.