ScoreProb
Premiership Northern Ireland Round 15 2026

Portadown vs Ballymena United

Portadown Home · Elo 1,479
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ballymena United Away · Elo 1,503
Shamrock Park, Portadown Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ballymena United win
Portadown win
35.2%
Draw
25.4%
Ballymena United winPick
39.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.8%
No46.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.6%
Under 2.544.4%

How much we know

Portadown history65 matches
Ballymena United history74 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Ballymena United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,479 against 1,503. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.32 goals a game over 65 matches for Portadown, against 1.45 over 74 for Ballymena United.

  • Ballymena United concede fewer

    Portadown concede 1.52 a game, Ballymena United 1.35.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of Portadown matches, against 50% for Ballymena United. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Portadown
Ballymena United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1479.3
ELO
1502.8
65
ELO · Matches
74
1479.3
Current Team ELO
1502.8
1502.8
Current Opponent ELO
1479.3
-23.54
Current ELO Difference
23.54
0.47
Expected score
0.53
65
History Matches
74
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.00
47.88
Overperformance
49.64
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
2.10
1.30
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.37
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.84
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
74
1.26
PPG
1.27
36.9%
Win rate
35.1%
15.4%
Draw rate
21.6%
47.7%
Loss rate
43.2%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.5%
55.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
27.7%
Over 3.5 rate
27.0%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
40
1.57
PPG
1.13
46.4%
Win rate
32.5%
17.9%
Draw rate
15.0%
35.7%
Loss rate
52.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
39.3%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
28
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.32
Goals for per game
1.45
67.7%
Scoring rate
77.0%
49.2%
BTTS rate
52.7%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.38
75.0%
Scoring rate
72.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
55.0%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.33
33.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
65
History Matches
74
1.32
Goals Mean
1.45
1.30
Goals Std
1.26
67.7%
Scored 1+ rate
77.0%
38.5%
Scored 2+ rate
40.5%
15.4%
Scored 3+ rate
16.2%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.52
Goals against per game
1.35
80.0%
Conceding rate
74.3%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.53
71.4%
Conceding rate
82.5%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
65
History Matches
74
1.52
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.20
Conceded Std
1.02
41.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
21.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.1%
1.25
Venue Conceded Mean
1.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
74
0.92
Result entropy
0.97
2.01
Goal Difference Std
1.85
8.16
Stability score
3.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
71
22
Lead Matches
18
77.3%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.87
16
Trailing Matches
23
6.3%
Non-loss rate
17.4%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.92
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.92
Rest days
77.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
7
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
42
Normal Rest History Matches
49
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
20
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.18
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.74
Portability PPG Std
0.52
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.25
40.43
Portability Score
48.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
74
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-23.54
PPG-0.01
GF-0.12
GA0.17
PPG-1.00
PPG0.45
PPG0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate9.3%
History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate11.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-9
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.05
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean0.17
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate13.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches-9
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score4.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate6.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.21
Portability PPG Range0.75
Portability Score-8.48
Rest days-0.93
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.12
Current Team ELO-23.54
Current Opponent ELO23.54
Current ELO Difference-47.07
Expected score-0.07
History Matches-9
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Portadown

L
Larne1–0Portadown30 Oct · away
Pick: Larne 64% · hit
L
Portadown1–2Linfield23 Oct · home
Pick: Linfield 43% · hit
L
Portadown0–2Cliftonville FC20 Oct · home
Pick: Cliftonville FC 45% · hit
W
Cliftonville FC1–2Portadown17 Oct · away
Pick: Cliftonville FC 59% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ballymena United

L
Ballymena United0–1Bangor31 Oct · home
Pick: Ballymena United 52% · missed
W
Newington Youth1–3Ballymena United20 Oct · away
Pick: Ballymena United 41% · hit
W
Ballymena United2–1Crusaders FC17 Oct · home
Pick: Ballymena United 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Portadown and Ballymena United meet in Premiership on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Shamrock Park, Portadown. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Portadown win 35.2%, draw 25.4%, Ballymena United win 39.4%. The pick is Ballymena United win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.6%. Both teams to score: 53.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.