ScoreProb
Premiership Northern Ireland Round 15 2026

Dungannon Swifts vs Limavady United

Dungannon Swifts Home · Elo 1,570
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Limavady United Away · Elo 1,590
Stangmore Park, Dungannon Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dungannon Swifts win
Dungannon Swifts winPick
53.0%
Draw
21.3%
Limavady United win
25.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.4%
No47.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.7%
Under 2.546.3%

How much we know

Dungannon Swifts history81 matches
Limavady United history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Dungannon Swifts are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,570 against 1,590. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Limavady United score more

    1.35 goals a game over 81 matches for Dungannon Swifts, against 1.59 over 66 for Limavady United.

  • Limavady United concede fewer

    Dungannon Swifts concede 1.46 a game, Limavady United 1.03.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Dungannon Swifts matches, against 45% for Limavady United. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dungannon Swifts
Limavady United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1570.5
ELO
1590.1
81
ELO · Matches
66
1570.5
Current Team ELO
1590.1
1590.1
Current Opponent ELO
1570.5
-19.65
Current ELO Difference
19.65
0.47
Expected score
0.53
81
History Matches
66
0.04
Residual Mean
0.07
53.26
Overperformance
55.66
0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.30
2.10
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
0.90
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.26
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
81
Matches
66
1.51
PPG
1.83
45.7%
Win rate
53.0%
13.6%
Draw rate
24.2%
40.7%
Loss rate
22.7%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
53.1%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
30.9%
Over 3.5 rate
30.3%
2.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
30
1.62
PPG
1.90
51.3%
Win rate
53.3%
7.7%
Draw rate
30.0%
41.0%
Loss rate
16.7%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
43.3%
35.9%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
39
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.35
Goals for per game
1.59
70.4%
Scoring rate
75.8%
42.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.59
Goals for per game
1.73
76.9%
Scoring rate
86.7%
48.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.33
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
81
History Matches
66
1.35
Goals Mean
1.59
1.18
Goals Std
1.37
70.4%
Scored 1+ rate
75.8%
39.5%
Scored 2+ rate
43.9%
21.0%
Scored 3+ rate
24.2%
1.59
Venue Goals Mean
1.73
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.46
Goals against per game
1.03
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.36
Goals against per game
1.10
69.2%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
33.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
81
History Matches
66
1.46
Conceded Mean
1.03
1.56
Conceded Std
0.95
39.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.3%
21.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.6%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
1.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
81
History Matches
66
0.91
Result entropy
0.93
2.23
Goal Difference Std
1.62
9.44
Stability score
7.46
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
80
Eligible Matches
65
26
Lead Matches
22
88.5%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.94
23
Trailing Matches
14
8.7%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
8.7%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
59
Normal Rest History Matches
48
1.47
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.73
12
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.00
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
3
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
10
Competition Season Count
8
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.22
1.23
Portability PPG Range
0.52
54.13
Portability Score
69.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
81
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-19.65
PPG-0.33
GF-0.25
GA0.43
PPG2.00
PPG-0.28
PPG0.80
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate5.4%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate10.8%
Failed-to-score rate9.7%
History Matches15
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches15
Conceded Mean0.43
Conceded Std0.61
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate12.2%
Conceded 3+ rate13.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.28
History Matches15
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.61
Stability score1.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.04
Eligible Matches15
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.27
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches15
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.83
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.21
Portability PPG Range0.72
Portability Score-15.49
Rest days-7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches8
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.85
Current Team ELO-19.65
Current Opponent ELO19.65
Current ELO Difference-39.29
Expected score-0.06
History Matches15
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.46

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dungannon Swifts

D
Linfield1–1Dungannon Swifts31 Oct · away
Pick: Linfield 39% · missed
L
Dungannon Swifts1–3Cliftonville FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Cliftonville FC 39% · hit
W
Bangor1–2Dungannon Swifts20 Oct · away
Pick: Dungannon Swifts 46% · hit
D
Bangor0–0Dungannon Swifts17 Oct · away
Pick: Dungannon Swifts 47% · missed
W
Cliftonville FC0–2Dungannon Swifts29 Aug · away
Pick: Cliftonville FC 48% · missed

Limavady United

L
Limavady United1–4Crusaders FC31 Oct · home
Pick: Crusaders FC 39% · hit
D
Larne1–1Limavady United27 Oct · away
Pick: Larne 56% · missed
D
Carrick Rangers1–1Limavady United24 Oct · away
Pick: Carrick Rangers 60% · missed
W
Annagh United3–4Limavady United20 Oct · away
Pick: Limavady United 40% · hit
L
Glentoran1–0Limavady United17 Oct · away
Pick: Glentoran 56% · hit

About this match

Dungannon Swifts and Limavady United meet in Premiership on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Stangmore Park, Dungannon. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Dungannon Swifts win 53.0%, draw 21.3%, Limavady United win 25.6%. The pick is Dungannon Swifts win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.7%. Both teams to score: 52.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.