ScoreProb
Premiership Northern Ireland Round 15 2026

Linfield vs Coleraine FC

Linfield Home · Elo 1,566
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Coleraine FC Away · Elo 1,689
Windsor Park, Belfast Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Coleraine FC win
Linfield win
29.9%
Draw
23.1%
Coleraine FC winPick
47.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.8%
No47.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.2%
Under 2.551.8%

How much we know

Linfield history82 matches
Coleraine FC history77 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Coleraine FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Coleraine FC are rated 122 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,689 against 1,566. On rating alone Coleraine FC would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Coleraine FC score more

    1.50 goals a game over 82 matches for Linfield, against 2.03 over 77 for Coleraine FC.

  • Defences are close

    Linfield concede 0.99 a game, Coleraine FC 1.00.

  • Coleraine FC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Linfield matches, against 55% for Coleraine FC. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Linfield
Coleraine FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1566.3
ELO
1688.8
82
ELO · Matches
77
1566.3
Current Team ELO
1688.8
1688.8
Current Opponent ELO
1566.3
-122.5
Current ELO Difference
122.5
0.33
Expected score
0.67
82
History Matches
77
0.05
Residual Mean
0.11
53.69
Overperformance
59.03
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.40
2.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
2.20
1.50
Goals for per game
1.90
1.50
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
2.01
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.58
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.60
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.57
Overall performance9 signals
90
82
Matches
77
1.67
PPG
2.01
48.8%
Win rate
61.0%
20.7%
Draw rate
18.2%
30.5%
Loss rate
20.8%
70.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.1%
45.1%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
24.4%
Over 3.5 rate
29.9%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
Venue performance10 signals
100
44
Matches
41
2.09
PPG
1.88
65.9%
Win rate
56.1%
11.4%
Draw rate
19.5%
22.7%
Loss rate
24.4%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.8%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
51.2%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
26.8%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
44
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.50
Goals for per game
2.03
70.7%
Scoring rate
87.0%
39.0%
BTTS rate
51.9%
1.70
Goals for per game
1.85
77.3%
Scoring rate
85.4%
34.1%
BTTS rate
53.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
82
History Matches
77
1.50
Goals Mean
2.03
1.48
Goals Std
1.69
70.7%
Scored 1+ rate
87.0%
41.5%
Scored 2+ rate
51.9%
22.0%
Scored 3+ rate
28.6%
1.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.99
Goals against per game
1.00
59.8%
Conceding rate
61.0%
0.82
Goals against per game
1.10
52.3%
Conceding rate
65.9%
1.33
Goals against per game
0.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
33.3%
82
History Matches
77
0.99
Conceded Mean
1.00
0.99
Conceded Std
1.02
29.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.9%
9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.5%
0.82
Venue Conceded Mean
1.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.2%
Clean-sheet rate
39.0%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
47.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.1%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
40.2%
Clean-sheet rate
39.0%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
13.0%
47.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.1%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.6%
40.2%
Clean-sheet rate
39.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
82
History Matches
77
0.95
Result entropy
0.85
1.94
Goal Difference Std
2.09
5.47
Stability score
14.64
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
81
Eligible Matches
77
32
Lead Matches
32
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.91
18
Trailing Matches
19
11.1%
Non-loss rate
36.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
81
Halftime Coverage Matches
77
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.26
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.97
Rest days
77.17
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
11
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.18
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
48
Normal Rest History Matches
56
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.07
22
Long Rest History Matches
18
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.94
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
2.33
66.7%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.33
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.33
12
Competition Season Count
9
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.31
1.20
Portability PPG Range
0.98
51.51
Portability Score
61.60
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
82
Clean History Matches
77
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-122.5
PPG-0.34
GF-0.53
GA-0.01
PPG-0.33
PPG0.21
PPG1.00
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate1.3%
Failed-to-score rate16.3%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate13.6%
Failed-to-score rate8.1%
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.53
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.43
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.01
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate1.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate3.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.58
History Matches5
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score-9.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.16
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.26
Trailing Win Rate-0.16
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.67
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.22
Portability Score-10.09
Rest days0.80
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches9
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.47
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.06
Current Team ELO-122.5
Current Opponent ELO122.5
Current ELO Difference-245.0
Expected score-0.34
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Linfield

D
Linfield1–1Dungannon Swifts31 Oct · home
Pick: Linfield 39% · missed
W
Portadown1–2Linfield23 Oct · away
Pick: Linfield 43% · hit
W
Larne1–2Linfield20 Oct · away
Pick: Larne 45% · missed
D
Carrick Rangers2–2Linfield17 Oct · away
Pick: Carrick Rangers 43% · missed
W
Limavady United0–2Linfield29 Aug · away
Pick: Linfield 42% · hit

Coleraine FC

D
Coleraine FC1–1Glentoran30 Oct · home
Pick: Coleraine FC 49% · missed
W
Crusaders FC0–5Coleraine FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Coleraine FC 48% · hit
W
Larne2–3Coleraine FC16 Oct · away
Pick: Coleraine FC 35% · hit
W
Bangor2–3Coleraine FC4 Oct · away
Pick: Coleraine FC 64% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Linfield and Coleraine FC meet in Premiership on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. The match is played at Windsor Park, Belfast. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Linfield win 29.9%, draw 23.1%, Coleraine FC win 47.0%. The pick is Coleraine FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.2%. Both teams to score: 52.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.