ScoreProb
Liga Nacional Honduras Round 13 2026

Génesis vs Real Espana

Génesis Home · Elo 1,483
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Real Espana Away · Elo 1,585
Estadio Roberto Suazo Cordova, La Paz Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Real Espana win
Génesis win
26.8%
Draw
28.7%
Real Espana winPick
44.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.4%
No51.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.3%
Under 2.554.7%

How much we know

Génesis history54 matches
Real Espana history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Real Espana are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Real Espana are rated 102 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,585 against 1,483. On rating alone Real Espana would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Real Espana score more

    1.26 goals a game over 54 matches for Génesis, against 1.48 over 62 for Real Espana.

  • Real Espana concede fewer

    Génesis concede 1.50 a game, Real Espana 1.06.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    44% of Génesis matches, against 42% for Real Espana. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Génesis
Real Espana
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1483.3
ELO
1585.3
54
ELO · Matches
62
1483.3
Current Team ELO
1585.3
1585.3
Current Opponent ELO
1483.3
-102.0
Current ELO Difference
102.0
0.36
Expected score
0.64
54
History Matches
62
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.08
48.77
Overperformance
56.06
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
62
1.11
PPG
1.65
24.1%
Win rate
45.2%
38.9%
Draw rate
29.0%
37.0%
Loss rate
25.8%
75.9%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
41.9%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
27
1.31
PPG
1.30
26.9%
Win rate
29.6%
50.0%
Draw rate
40.7%
23.1%
Loss rate
29.6%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
34.6%
Over 2.5 rate
37.0%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
14.8%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
26
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.26
Goals for per game
1.48
74.1%
Scoring rate
83.9%
61.1%
BTTS rate
58.1%
1.35
Goals for per game
1.26
73.1%
Scoring rate
77.8%
53.8%
BTTS rate
59.3%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.75
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
54
History Matches
62
1.26
Goals Mean
1.48
1.17
Goals Std
1.06
74.1%
Scored 1+ rate
83.9%
31.5%
Scored 2+ rate
43.5%
13.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.5%
1.35
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.06
81.5%
Conceding rate
69.4%
1.27
Goals against per game
1.07
73.1%
Conceding rate
74.1%
0.75
Goals against per game
0.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
54
History Matches
62
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.06
1.23
Conceded Std
1.11
40.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.0%
14.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.7%
1.27
Venue Conceded Mean
1.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
62
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.53
1.88
Stability score
2.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
62
14
Lead Matches
20
64.3%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.92
21
Trailing Matches
15
33.3%
Non-loss rate
46.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.00
Rest days
74.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
10
1.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.70
28
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
20
Long Rest History Matches
25
0.85
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.25
3
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.23
0.92
Portability PPG Range
0.63
56.70
Portability Score
68.96
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-102.0
PPG-0.53
GF-0.22
GA0.44
PPG-0.25
PPG0.01
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate9.8%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate1.0%
Failed-to-score rate4.7%
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.22
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.06
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.44
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate19.8%
Conceded 3+ rate5.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.06
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score-0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.23
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.26
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.29
Portability Score-12.25
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Current Team ELO-102.0
Current Opponent ELO102.0
Current ELO Difference-204.1
Expected score-0.29
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Génesis

L
Lobos Upnfm4–3Génesis31 Oct · away
Pick: Génesis 47% · missed
L
Atlético Choloma3–1Génesis24 Oct · away
Pick: Génesis 53% · missed
L
Génesis1–2CD Marathon29 Aug · home
Pick: CD Marathon 36% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Real Espana

W
Real Espana3–1Juticalpa31 Oct · home
Pick: Real Espana 77% · hit
W
Real Espana4–3Platense FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Real Espana 74% · hit
L
CD Olimpia2–1Real Espana16 Oct · away
Pick: CD Olimpia 50% · hit
W
Real Espana2–1Atlético Choloma30 Aug · home
Pick: Real Espana 76% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Génesis and Real Espana meet in Liga Nacional on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Roberto Suazo Cordova, La Paz. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Génesis win 26.8%, draw 28.7%, Real Espana win 44.5%. The pick is Real Espana win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.3%. Both teams to score: 48.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.