ScoreProb
Liga Nacional Honduras Round 13 2026

Olancho vs Lobos Upnfm

Olancho Home · Elo 1,520
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lobos Upnfm Away · Elo 1,453
Estadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas, Juticalpa Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Olancho win
Olancho winPick
63.8%
Draw
19.0%
Lobos Upnfm win
17.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.7%
No47.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.2%
Under 2.544.8%

How much we know

Olancho history53 matches
Lobos Upnfm history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Olancho are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Olancho are rated 67 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,520 against 1,453. On rating alone Olancho would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Olancho score more

    1.36 goals a game over 53 matches for Olancho, against 1.17 over 42 for Lobos Upnfm.

  • Olancho concede fewer

    Olancho concede 1.25 a game, Lobos Upnfm 1.81.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Olancho matches, against 48% for Lobos Upnfm. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Olancho
Lobos Upnfm
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1519.9
ELO
1452.8
53
ELO · Matches
42
1519.9
Current Team ELO
1452.8
1452.8
Current Opponent ELO
1519.9
67.11
Current ELO Difference
-67.11
0.60
Expected score
0.40
53
History Matches
42
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.07
51.21
Overperformance
45.12
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.90
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
42
1.34
PPG
0.95
32.1%
Win rate
19.0%
37.7%
Draw rate
38.1%
30.2%
Loss rate
42.9%
77.4%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
43.4%
Over 2.5 rate
47.6%
26.4%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
25
1.62
PPG
0.56
38.5%
Win rate
12.0%
46.2%
Draw rate
20.0%
15.4%
Loss rate
68.0%
80.8%
Over 1.5 rate
88.0%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
44.0%
30.8%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
26
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
1.17
79.2%
Scoring rate
71.4%
60.4%
BTTS rate
64.3%
1.54
Goals for per game
1.04
84.6%
Scoring rate
64.0%
69.2%
BTTS rate
52.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
53
History Matches
42
1.36
Goals Mean
1.17
1.20
Goals Std
0.95
79.2%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
32.1%
Scored 2+ rate
35.7%
15.1%
Scored 3+ rate
9.5%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.25
Goals against per game
1.81
77.4%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.19
Goals against per game
2.28
80.8%
Conceding rate
88.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
2.25
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
42
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.81
0.95
Conceded Std
1.33
35.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.4%
9.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.8%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
2.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
12.0%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
42
1.00
Result entropy
0.95
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.51
0.42
Stability score
4.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
42
16
Lead Matches
10
56.3%
Lead Win Rate
40.0%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.60
15
Trailing Matches
16
33.3%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
72.91
Rest days
74.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
19
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.05
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.95
25
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.25
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.23
0.82
Portability PPG Range
0.54
59.97
Portability Score
68.58
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO67.11
PPG0.39
GF0.19
GA-0.56
PPG1.50
PPG1.06
PPG0.80
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate8.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate7.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches11
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std0.25
Scored 1+ rate7.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate5.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches11
Conceded Mean-0.56
Conceded Std-0.38
Clean-sheet rate8.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-1.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.31
History Matches11
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score-4.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.32
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate16.3%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate14.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.28
Portability Score-8.61
Rest days-1.93
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches7
Short Rest Points Per Match0.25
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.10
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.52
Current Team ELO67.11
Current Opponent ELO-67.11
Current ELO Difference134.2
Expected score0.19
History Matches11
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Olancho

W
Olancho4–1Platense FC2 Nov · home
Pick: Olancho 61% · hit
D
Olancho3–3Estrella Roja24 Oct · home
Pick: Olancho 67% · missed
L
CD Marathon2–1Olancho15 Oct · away
Pick: CD Marathon 47% · hit
L
CD Motagua2–1Olancho30 Aug · away
Pick: CD Motagua 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lobos Upnfm

W
Lobos Upnfm4–3Génesis31 Oct · home
Pick: Génesis 47% · missed
L
Lobos Upnfm0–1CD Olimpia25 Oct · home
Pick: CD Olimpia 67% · hit
W
Atletico Independiente0–4Lobos Upnfm18 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Independiente 51% · missed
L
Juticalpa1–0Lobos Upnfm29 Aug · away
Pick: Lobos Upnfm 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Olancho and Lobos Upnfm meet in Liga Nacional on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas, Juticalpa. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Olancho win 63.8%, draw 19.0%, Lobos Upnfm win 17.2%. The pick is Olancho win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.2%. Both teams to score: 52.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.