ScoreProb
Liga Nacional Honduras Round 13 2026

Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente

Atlético Choloma Home · Elo 1,442
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atletico Independiente Away · Elo 1,502
Estadio Ruben Deras Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atlético Choloma win
Atlético Choloma winPick
42.9%
Draw
26.9%
Atletico Independiente win
30.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%
No47.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.7%
Under 2.548.3%

How much we know

Atlético Choloma history34 matches
Atletico Independiente history4 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 23:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Atlético Choloma are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Atletico Independiente are rated 60 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,502 against 1,442. On rating alone Atletico Independiente would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Atlético Choloma score more

    1.18 goals a game over 34 matches for Atlético Choloma, against 1.00 over 4 for Atletico Independiente.

  • Atletico Independiente concede fewer

    Atlético Choloma concede 1.88 a game, Atletico Independiente 1.00.

  • Atlético Choloma games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of Atlético Choloma matches, against 25% for Atletico Independiente. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atlético Choloma
Atletico Independiente
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1442.0
ELO
1502.3
34
ELO · Matches
4
1442.0
Current Team ELO
1502.3
1502.3
Current Opponent ELO
1442.0
-60.24
Current ELO Difference
60.24
0.41
Expected score
0.59
34
History Matches
4
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.03
44.73
Overperformance
50.52
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
4
1.20
PPG
1.25
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
25.0%
10
Matches
4
1.20
PPG
1.25
1.30
Goals for per game
1.00
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
25.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.71
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.00
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.95
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.71
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
4
0.97
PPG
1.25
26.5%
Win rate
25.0%
17.6%
Draw rate
50.0%
55.9%
Loss rate
25.0%
73.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
2
1.24
PPG
0.50
35.3%
Win rate
0.0%
17.6%
Draw rate
50.0%
47.1%
Loss rate
50.0%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
17
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.18
Goals for per game
1.00
67.6%
Scoring rate
75.0%
58.8%
BTTS rate
75.0%
1.29
Goals for per game
0.50
76.5%
Scoring rate
50.0%
64.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.75
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
34
History Matches
4
1.18
Goals Mean
1.00
1.22
Goals Std
0.71
67.6%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
32.4%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
5.9%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
0.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.88
Goals against per game
1.00
85.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.82
Goals against per game
1.00
82.4%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
34
History Matches
4
1.88
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.60
Conceded Std
0.00
47.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
0.0%
29.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.82
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
14.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
32.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
14.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
4
0.89
Result entropy
0.95
1.93
Goal Difference Std
0.71
10.51
Stability score
5.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
4
5
Lead Matches
1
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
11
Trailing Matches
1
9.1%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
4
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.94
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.91
Rest days
75.09
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
13
Normal Rest History Matches
3
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
15
Long Rest History Matches
0
0.93
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
1.25
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.71
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.75
Current Competition PPG
1.25
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.13
Portability PPG Std
—
0.25
Portability PPG Range
—
80.00
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
4
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-60.24
PPG-0.28
GF0.18
GA0.88
PPG-0.50
PPG0.74
PPG-0.05
PPG-0.05
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches30
Clean-sheet rate14.7%
Failed-to-score rate7.4%
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate17.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches30
Goals Mean0.18
Goals Std0.52
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate7.4%
Scored 3+ rate5.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.79
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.64
History Matches30
Conceded Mean0.88
Conceded Std1.60
Clean-sheet rate14.7%
Conceded 2+ rate47.1%
Conceded 3+ rate29.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.82
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.12
History Matches30
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std1.23
Stability score5.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.01
Eligible Matches30
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate9.1%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches30
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.44
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-0.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Long Rest History Matches15
Current Team ELO-60.24
Current Opponent ELO60.24
Current ELO Difference-120.5
Expected score-0.17
History Matches30
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-5.79
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atlético Choloma

L
Atlético Choloma0–3CD Olimpia1 Nov · home
Pick: CD Olimpia 73% · hit
W
Atlético Choloma3–1Génesis24 Oct · home
Pick: Génesis 53% · missed
W
Juticalpa1–2Atlético Choloma17 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Choloma 38% · hit
L
Real Espana2–1Atlético Choloma30 Aug · away
Pick: Real Espana 76% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Atletico Independiente

L
Estrella Roja3–1Atletico Independiente31 Oct · away
Pick: Estrella Roja 40% · hit
D
Atletico Independiente2–2CD Marathon25 Oct · home
Pick: CD Marathon 45% · missed
L
Atletico Independiente0–4Lobos Upnfm18 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Independiente 51% · missed
L
Platense FC2–1Atletico Independiente29 Aug · away
Pick: Platense FC 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Atlético Choloma and Atletico Independiente meet in Liga Nacional on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 23:15 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Ruben Deras. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Atlético Choloma win 42.9%, draw 26.9%, Atletico Independiente win 30.2%. The pick is Atlético Choloma win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.7%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.