ScoreProb
Liga Nacional Honduras Round 13 2026

CD Marathon vs Platense FC

CD Marathon Home · Elo 1,596
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Platense FC Away · Elo 1,466
Estadio Yankel Rosenthal, San Pedro Sula Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: CD Marathon win
CD Marathon winPick
69.4%
Draw
21.0%
Platense FC win
9.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.7%
No52.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.0%
Under 2.545.0%

How much we know

CD Marathon history64 matches
Platense FC history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 01:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (69.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why CD Marathon are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • CD Marathon are rated 129 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,596 against 1,466. On rating alone CD Marathon would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.44 goals a game over 64 matches for CD Marathon, against 1.43 over 37 for Platense FC.

  • CD Marathon concede fewer

    CD Marathon concede 0.73 a game, Platense FC 1.38.

  • Platense FC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    34% of CD Marathon matches, against 51% for Platense FC. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
CD Marathon
Platense FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1595.6
ELO
1466.3
64
ELO · Matches
37
1595.6
Current Team ELO
1466.3
1466.3
Current Opponent ELO
1595.6
129.3
Current ELO Difference
-129.3
0.68
Expected score
0.32
64
History Matches
37
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.04
55.71
Overperformance
47.21
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.20
1.40
Goals for per game
0.20
0.40
Goals against per game
2.60
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.10
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.40
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.34
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
0.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
37
1.77
PPG
1.16
45.3%
Win rate
27.0%
40.6%
Draw rate
35.1%
14.1%
Loss rate
37.8%
67.2%
Over 1.5 rate
83.8%
34.4%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
17.2%
Over 3.5 rate
35.1%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
18
2.09
PPG
0.89
60.6%
Win rate
22.2%
27.3%
Draw rate
22.2%
12.1%
Loss rate
55.6%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
61.1%
15.2%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
33
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.43
78.1%
Scoring rate
70.3%
40.6%
BTTS rate
56.8%
1.61
Goals for per game
1.28
84.8%
Scoring rate
55.6%
33.3%
BTTS rate
44.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
25.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
64
History Matches
37
1.44
Goals Mean
1.43
1.26
Goals Std
1.39
78.1%
Scored 1+ rate
70.3%
39.1%
Scored 2+ rate
35.1%
17.2%
Scored 3+ rate
21.6%
1.61
Venue Goals Mean
1.28
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.73
Goals against per game
1.38
50.0%
Conceding rate
86.5%
0.61
Goals against per game
1.67
42.4%
Conceding rate
88.9%
0.50
Goals against per game
2.25
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
64
History Matches
37
0.73
Conceded Mean
1.38
0.87
Conceded Std
0.91
18.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.8%
4.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.8%
0.61
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
57.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
57.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
37
0.91
Result entropy
0.99
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.97
8.93
Stability score
0.89
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
37
26
Lead Matches
10
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.77
11
Trailing Matches
12
63.6%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.19
Rest days
75.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
14
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.57
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.25
27
Normal Rest History Matches
17
2.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
22
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.93
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
0.25
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.25
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
4
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.51
0.33
Portability PPG Range
1.02
78.09
Portability Score
49.44
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO129.3
PPG0.60
GF0.01
GA-0.64
PPG1.75
PPG1.20
PPG2.00
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches27
Clean-sheet rate36.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate46.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches27
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate7.9%
Scored 2+ rate3.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.57
History Matches27
Conceded Mean-0.64
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate36.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-1.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.70
History Matches27
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.40
Stability score8.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.28
Eligible Matches27
Lead Matches16
Lead Win Rate6.9%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate30.3%
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches27
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.37
Portability PPG Range-0.69
Portability Score28.65
Rest days-0.81
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches10
Short Rest Points Per Match0.32
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.74
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.52
Current Team ELO129.3
Current Opponent ELO-129.3
Current ELO Difference258.6
Expected score0.36
History Matches27
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance8.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

CD Marathon

L
CD Motagua2–0CD Marathon1 Nov · away
Pick: CD Motagua 38% · hit
D
Alianza0–0CD Marathon28 Oct · away
Pick: CD Marathon 36% · missed
D
Atletico Independiente2–2CD Marathon25 Oct · away
Pick: CD Marathon 45% · missed
W
CD Marathon2–1Alianza21 Oct · home
Pick: CD Marathon 47% · hit
W
CD Marathon2–1Olancho15 Oct · home
Pick: CD Marathon 47% · hit

Platense FC

L
Olancho4–1Platense FC2 Nov · away
Pick: Olancho 61% · hit
L
Real Espana4–3Platense FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Real Espana 74% · hit
L
Platense FC0–2CD Motagua17 Oct · home
Pick: CD Motagua 63% · hit
W
Platense FC2–1Atletico Independiente29 Aug · home
Pick: Platense FC 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

CD Marathon and Platense FC meet in Liga Nacional on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 01:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal, San Pedro Sula. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: CD Marathon win 69.4%, draw 21.0%, Platense FC win 9.6%. The pick is CD Marathon win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.0%. Both teams to score: 47.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.