ScoreProb
UEFA Europa League World Round 4 2026

Celtic vs Beşiktaş

Celtic Home · Elo 1,680
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Beşiktaş Away · Elo 1,624
Celtic Park, Glasgow Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Celtic win
Celtic winPick
53.2%
Draw
24.7%
Beşiktaş win
22.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.6%
No42.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.3%
Under 2.535.7%

How much we know

Celtic history94 matches
Beşiktaş history82 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Celtic are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Celtic are rated 57 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,680 against 1,624. On rating alone Celtic would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Celtic score more

    2.12 goals a game over 94 matches for Celtic, against 1.65 over 82 for Beşiktaş.

  • Defences are close

    Celtic concede 1.18 a game, Beşiktaş 1.13.

  • Celtic games more often go over 2.5 goals

    67% of Celtic matches, against 52% for Beşiktaş. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Celtic
Beşiktaş
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1680.4
ELO
1623.7
94
ELO · Matches
82
1680.4
Current Team ELO
1623.7
1623.7
Current Opponent ELO
1680.4
56.78
Current ELO Difference
-56.78
0.58
Expected score
0.42
94
History Matches
82
0.09
Residual Mean
0.07
57.56
Overperformance
55.97
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.40
2.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
0.20
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.70
2.20
Goals for per game
0.90
1.40
Goals against per game
0.70
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
94
Matches
82
1.93
PPG
1.71
57.4%
Win rate
50.0%
20.2%
Draw rate
20.7%
22.3%
Loss rate
29.3%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
67.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
47.9%
Over 3.5 rate
29.3%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
46
Matches
41
2.13
PPG
1.56
65.2%
Win rate
41.5%
17.4%
Draw rate
31.7%
17.4%
Loss rate
26.8%
87.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.5%
71.7%
Over 2.5 rate
36.6%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.8%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
46
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.12
Goals for per game
1.65
88.3%
Scoring rate
82.9%
60.6%
BTTS rate
57.3%
2.35
Goals for per game
1.49
91.3%
Scoring rate
78.0%
56.5%
BTTS rate
51.2%
—
Goals for per game
1.25
—
Scoring rate
100.0%
—
BTTS rate
0.0%
94
History Matches
82
2.12
Goals Mean
1.65
1.50
Goals Std
1.19
88.3%
Scored 1+ rate
82.9%
57.4%
Scored 2+ rate
51.2%
36.2%
Scored 3+ rate
19.5%
2.35
Venue Goals Mean
1.49
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.18
Goals against per game
1.13
67.0%
Conceding rate
72.0%
0.98
Goals against per game
1.07
60.9%
Conceding rate
70.7%
—
Goals against per game
0.00
—
Conceding rate
0.0%
94
History Matches
82
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.15
Conceded Std
0.96
33.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.5%
11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.8%
0.98
Venue Conceded Mean
1.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
11.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
11.7%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
33.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
94
History Matches
82
0.89
Result entropy
0.94
2.11
Goal Difference Std
1.59
11.12
Stability score
6.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
94
Eligible Matches
82
47
Lead Matches
30
83.0%
Lead Win Rate
76.7%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.83
16
Trailing Matches
18
25.0%
Non-loss rate
38.9%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
94
Halftime Coverage Matches
82
1.09
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
72.04
Rest days
74.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
16
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.94
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.25
56
Normal Rest History Matches
60
1.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.87
21
Long Rest History Matches
17
2.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
0
Matches
4
—
PPG
3.00
—
Win rate
100.0%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
0.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
25.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.43
0
Current Competition Matches
4
—
Current Competition PPG
3.00
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.25
13
Competition Season Count
11
9
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.68
Portability PPG Std
0.79
2.17
Portability PPG Range
3.00
42.24
Portability Score
38.65
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
94
Clean History Matches
82
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO56.78
PPG0.22
GF0.47
GA0.05
PPG0.57
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate4.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate9.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches12
Goals Mean0.47
Goals Std0.31
Scored 1+ rate5.4%
Scored 2+ rate6.2%
Scored 3+ rate16.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.86
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.70
History Matches12
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate4.9%
Conceded 2+ rate2.5%
Conceded 3+ rate1.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.42
History Matches12
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.52
Stability score5.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.23
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches17
Lead Win Rate6.3%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate1.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches-4
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.83
Portability Score3.59
Rest days-2.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches12
Short Rest Points Per Match1.69
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.66
Current Team ELO56.78
Current Opponent ELO-56.78
Current ELO Difference113.6
Expected score0.16
History Matches12
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.58
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Celtic

L
Falkirk2–0Celtic1 Nov · away
Pick: Celtic 64% · missed
D
Celtic2–2Dundee Utd28 Oct · home
Pick: Celtic 68% · missed
W
Hibernian1–2Celtic25 Oct · away
Pick: Celtic 50% · hit
L
Celtic1–2Celta Vigo22 Oct · home
Pick: Celtic 48% · missed
W
Celtic7–1Heart Of Midlothian18 Oct · home
Pick: Celtic 66% · hit

Beşiktaş

D
Kasımpaşa2–2Beşiktaş1 Nov · away
Pick: Kasımpaşa 39% · missed
W
Beşiktaş2–0Başakşehir26 Oct · home
Pick: Beşiktaş 42% · hit
D
Beşiktaş2–2Crystal Palace22 Oct · home
Pick: Beşiktaş 41% · missed
L
Trabzonspor2–0Beşiktaş19 Oct · away
Pick: Trabzonspor 39% · hit
W
1899 Hoffenheim2–3Beşiktaş15 Oct · away
Pick: Beşiktaş 49% · hit

About this match

Celtic and Beşiktaş meet in UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Celtic Park, Glasgow. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Celtic win 53.2%, draw 24.7%, Beşiktaş win 22.1%. The pick is Celtic win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.3%. Both teams to score: 57.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.