ScoreProb
National 2 - Group C France Group C - 9 2026

Chateauroux vs Nimes

Chateauroux Home · Elo 1,464
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nimes Away · Elo 1,551
Stade Gaston Petit Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nimes win
Chateauroux win
30.0%
Draw
28.2%
Nimes winPick
41.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.0%
No49.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.4%
Under 2.550.6%

How much we know

Chateauroux history49 matches
Nimes history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 10 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 01:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.8%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.

Why Nimes are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nimes are rated 88 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,551 against 1,464. On rating alone Nimes would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Nimes score more

    1.14 goals a game over 49 matches for Chateauroux, against 1.27 over 48 for Nimes.

  • Nimes concede fewer

    Chateauroux concede 1.51 a game, Nimes 1.15.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Chateauroux matches, against 50% for Nimes. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chateauroux
Nimes@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1463.6
ELO
1551.3
49
ELO · Matches
48
1463.6
Current Team ELO
1551.3
1551.3
Current Opponent ELO
1463.6
-87.71
Current ELO Difference
87.71
0.38
Expected score
0.62
49
History Matches
48
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.05
47.04
Overperformance
53.31
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.50
1.30
Goals for per game
1.80
1.90
Goals against per game
1.80
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
48
1.10
PPG
1.50
24.5%
Win rate
43.8%
36.7%
Draw rate
18.8%
38.8%
Loss rate
37.5%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
51.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
30.6%
Over 3.5 rate
20.8%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
26
1.17
PPG
1.08
30.4%
Win rate
30.8%
26.1%
Draw rate
15.4%
43.5%
Loss rate
53.8%
65.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
52.2%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
30.4%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
23
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.14
Goals for per game
1.27
65.3%
Scoring rate
68.8%
53.1%
BTTS rate
37.5%
1.17
Goals for per game
0.88
65.2%
Scoring rate
57.7%
47.8%
BTTS rate
42.3%
0.00
Goals for per game
3.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
49
History Matches
48
1.14
Goals Mean
1.27
0.99
Goals Std
1.09
65.3%
Scored 1+ rate
68.8%
40.8%
Scored 2+ rate
39.6%
8.2%
Scored 3+ rate
18.8%
1.17
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.51
Goals against per game
1.15
75.5%
Conceding rate
54.2%
1.48
Goals against per game
1.54
73.9%
Conceding rate
73.1%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
49
History Matches
48
1.51
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.34
Conceded Std
1.29
44.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
16.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.6%
1.48
Venue Conceded Mean
1.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
45.8%
34.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
45.8%
34.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
42.3%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
45.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
48
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.88
1.71
Stability score
5.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
47
14
Lead Matches
11
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.62
Lead Points Retention
0.82
15
Trailing Matches
11
33.3%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.51
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.08
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
35
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
13
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.69
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.19
Portability PPG Std
0.81
0.39
Portability PPG Range
1.97
72.03
Portability Score
38.09
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-87.71
PPG-0.40
GF-0.13
GA0.36
PPG-2.00
PPG0.10
PPG0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate3.4%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate1.2%
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.36
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Conceded 2+ rate7.4%
Conceded 3+ rate1.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches1
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.41
Stability score-3.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.54
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.32
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate15.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.62
Portability PPG Range-1.58
Portability Score33.94
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Current Team ELO-87.71
Current Opponent ELO87.71
Current ELO Difference-175.4
Expected score-0.25
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chateauroux

L
Saint-Priest2–1Chateauroux31 Oct · away
Pick: Chateauroux 50% · missed
L
Chateauroux4–7Rumilly Vallières16 Oct · home
Pick: Rumilly Vallières 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Nimes

D
Nimes2–2Limonest31 Oct · home
Pick: Nimes 62% · missed
W
Nimes3–0Fréjus St-Raphaël29 Aug · home
Pick: Nimes 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Chateauroux and Nimes meet in National 2 - Group C on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. The match is played at Stade Gaston Petit. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Chateauroux win 30.0%, draw 28.2%, Nimes win 41.8%. The pick is Nimes win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.4%. Both teams to score: 51.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.