Chênois vs Monthey
Match result probability Model pick: Chênois win
Chênois winPick
39.5%
Draw
24.4%
Monthey win
36.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes60.8%
No39.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.563.8%
Under 2.536.2%
How much we know
Chênois history51 matches
Monthey history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Chênois
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 15:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 16:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.5%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Chênois are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Chênois are rated 33 Elo points higher
Elo 1,549 against 1,515. On rating alone Chênois would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.84 goals a game over 51 matches for Chênois, against 1.68 over 50 for Monthey.
-
Defences are close
Chênois concede 1.43 a game, Monthey 1.54.
-
Chênois games more often go over 2.5 goals
71% of Chênois matches, against 58% for Monthey. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Monthey@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1548.5
ELO
1515.2
51
ELO · Matches
50
1548.5
Current Team ELO
1515.2
1515.2
Current Opponent ELO
1548.5
33.33
Current ELO Difference
-33.33
0.55
Expected score
0.45
51
History Matches
50
0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
53.14
Overperformance
50.81
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
2.60
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.50
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.90
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals 90
51
Matches
50
1.69
PPG
1.40
47.1%
Win rate
36.0%
27.5%
Draw rate
32.0%
25.5%
Loss rate
32.0%
84.3%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
70.6%
Over 2.5 rate
58.0%
45.1%
Over 3.5 rate
42.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
26
1.72
PPG
1.42
48.0%
Win rate
38.5%
28.0%
Draw rate
26.9%
24.0%
Loss rate
34.6%
92.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
84.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
52.0%
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
25
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.84
Goals for per game
1.68
90.2%
Scoring rate
74.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
60.0%
2.08
Goals for per game
1.81
100.0%
Scoring rate
73.1%
80.0%
BTTS rate
61.5%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
51
History Matches
50
1.84
Goals Mean
1.68
1.18
Goals Std
1.41
90.2%
Scored 1+ rate
74.0%
60.8%
Scored 2+ rate
48.0%
19.6%
Scored 3+ rate
32.0%
2.08
Venue Goals Mean
1.81
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.43
Goals against per game
1.54
70.6%
Conceding rate
78.0%
1.48
Goals against per game
1.54
80.0%
Conceding rate
84.6%
2.33
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
51
History Matches
50
1.43
Conceded Mean
1.54
1.36
Conceded Std
1.27
43.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.0%
15.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.0%
1.48
Venue Conceded Mean
1.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
9.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
9.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
51
History Matches
50
0.96
Result entropy
1.00
1.92
Goal Difference Std
1.79
3.70
Stability score
0.14
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
43
Eligible Matches
42
16
Lead Matches
16
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.75
13
Trailing Matches
6
46.2%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
30.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.00
Rest days
84.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
22
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
26
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.25
1.18
Portability PPG Range
0.60
50.12
Portability Score
66.72
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
51
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO33.33
PPG0.29
GF0.16
GA-0.11
PPG0.00
PPG0.30
PPG0.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate16.2%
Scored 2+ rate12.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.09
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.01
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.13
Stability score3.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.56
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate6.3%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate46.2%
Trailing Win Rate30.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.25
Portability PPG Range0.58
Portability Score-16.59
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.50
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.40
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Current Team ELO33.33
Current Opponent ELO-33.33
Current ELO Difference66.66
Expected score0.10
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Chênois
W
Chênois3–1Stade Payerne31 Oct · home
Pick: Stade Payerne 40% · missed W
Chênois2–1Lausanne Sport II24 Oct · home
Pick: Chênois 50% · hit L
Azzurri1–0Chênois30 Aug · away
Pick: Chênois 47% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Monthey
W
Vevey Sports2–3Monthey31 Oct · away
Pick: Monthey 81% · hit L
Monthey0–1Portalban / Gletterens25 Oct · home
Pick: Monthey 38% · missed L
Langenthal3–0Monthey21 Oct · away
Pick: Langenthal 50% · hit W
Monthey3–1Naters29 Aug · home
Pick: Monthey 45% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Chênois and Monthey meet in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Chênois win 39.5%, draw 24.4%, Monthey win 36.2%. The pick is Chênois win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.8%. Both teams to score: 60.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.