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1. Liga Classic - Group 1 Switzerland Group 1 - 14 2026

Lancy vs Azzurri

Lancy Home · Elo 1,492
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Azzurri Away · Elo 1,491
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lancy win
Lancy winPick
65.2%
Draw
16.5%
Azzurri win
18.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.8%
No40.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.8%
Under 2.527.2%

How much we know

Lancy history53 matches
Azzurri history5 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.2%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Lancy are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,492 against 1,491. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Azzurri score more

    1.53 goals a game over 53 matches for Lancy, against 1.80 over 5 for Azzurri.

  • Lancy concede fewer

    Lancy concede 1.47 a game, Azzurri 3.00.

  • Azzurri games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Lancy matches, against 80% for Azzurri. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lancy
Azzurri@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1492.1
ELO
1490.9
53
ELO · Matches
5
1492.1
Current Team ELO
1490.9
1490.9
Current Opponent ELO
1492.1
1.13
Current ELO Difference
-1.13
0.50
Expected score
0.50
53
History Matches
5
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.11
49.51
Overperformance
47.75
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
3.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
5
1.50
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.10
Goals against per game
3.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.83
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.00
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.53
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
5
1.45
PPG
1.20
41.5%
Win rate
40.0%
20.8%
Draw rate
0.0%
37.7%
Loss rate
60.0%
77.4%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.4%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
34.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
3
1.74
PPG
1.00
51.9%
Win rate
33.3%
18.5%
Draw rate
0.0%
29.6%
Loss rate
66.7%
81.5%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
63.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
27
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.53
Goals for per game
1.80
75.5%
Scoring rate
60.0%
62.3%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.78
Goals for per game
1.67
81.5%
Scoring rate
66.7%
63.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
53
History Matches
5
1.53
Goals Mean
1.80
1.28
Goals Std
1.83
75.5%
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
47.2%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
20.8%
Scored 3+ rate
40.0%
1.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.47
Goals against per game
3.00
77.4%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.67
74.1%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.33
Goals against per game
2.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
5
1.47
Conceded Mean
3.00
1.49
Conceded Std
2.53
35.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
80.0%
15.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
24.5%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
5
0.96
Result entropy
0.61
1.99
Goal Difference Std
3.87
3.60
Stability score
38.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
4
13
Lead Matches
1
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
1.00
16
Trailing Matches
1
18.8%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
4
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.25
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
2.25
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.13
Rest days
83.17
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
25
Normal Rest History Matches
1
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
23
Long Rest History Matches
3
1.61
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
8
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.26
Portability PPG Std
—
0.60
Portability PPG Range
—
65.47
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
5
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO1.13
PPG0.25
GF-0.27
GA-1.53
PPG0.33
PPG0.74
PPG0.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches48
Clean-sheet rate22.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches24
Clean-sheet rate25.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches48
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std-0.55
Scored 1+ rate15.5%
Scored 2+ rate7.2%
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.55
History Matches48
Conceded Mean-1.53
Conceded Std-1.04
Clean-sheet rate22.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.44
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.48
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.49
History Matches48
Result entropy0.35
Goal Difference Std-1.87
Stability score-35.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-2.25
Eligible Matches40
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.18
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate18.8%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches40
First Half Goals For Mean-0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean-1.52
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches24
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.48
Long Rest History Matches20
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Current Team ELO1.13
Current Opponent ELO-1.13
Current ELO Difference2.25
Expected score0.00
History Matches48
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance1.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lancy

L
Meyrin3–2Lancy7 Nov · away
Pick: Meyrin 53% · hit
W
Lancy2–0Echallens31 Oct · home
Pick: Lancy 54% · hit
L
Naters2–1Lancy24 Oct · away
Pick: Naters 40% · hit
L
Lancy0–2Portalban / Gletterens16 Oct · home
Pick: Lancy 45% · missed
W
Lancy2–1Vevey Sports29 Aug · home
Pick: Lancy 82% · hit

Azzurri

W
Lausanne Sport II0–1Azzurri31 Oct · away
Pick: Lausanne Sport II 61% · missed
W
Meyrin0–1Azzurri24 Oct · away
Pick: Meyrin 77% · missed
W
Azzurri1–0Chênois30 Aug · home
Pick: Chênois 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Lancy and Azzurri meet in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Lancy win 65.2%, draw 16.5%, Azzurri win 18.3%. The pick is Lancy win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.8%. Both teams to score: 59.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.