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Non League Premier - Northern England Round 19 2026

Cleethorpes Town vs Stockton Town

Cleethorpes Town Home · Elo 1,544
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Stockton Town Away · Elo 1,518
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cleethorpes Town win
Cleethorpes Town winPick
60.5%
Draw
20.6%
Stockton Town win
18.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.8%
No51.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.6%
Under 2.544.4%

How much we know

Cleethorpes Town history63 matches
Stockton Town history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.5%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Cleethorpes Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cleethorpes Town are rated 26 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,544 against 1,518. On rating alone Cleethorpes Town would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Cleethorpes Town score more

    1.52 goals a game over 63 matches for Cleethorpes Town, against 1.36 over 70 for Stockton Town.

  • Cleethorpes Town concede fewer

    Cleethorpes Town concede 0.95 a game, Stockton Town 1.29.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Cleethorpes Town matches, against 50% for Stockton Town. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cleethorpes Town
Stockton Town@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1544.1
ELO
1518.5
63
ELO · Matches
70
1544.1
Current Team ELO
1518.5
1518.5
Current Opponent ELO
1544.1
25.67
Current ELO Difference
-25.67
0.54
Expected score
0.46
63
History Matches
70
0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
52.87
Overperformance
50.69
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.80
3.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.90
1.90
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
2.07
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
70
1.60
PPG
1.59
42.9%
Win rate
45.7%
31.7%
Draw rate
21.4%
25.4%
Loss rate
32.9%
74.6%
Over 1.5 rate
74.3%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
27.1%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
36
1.67
PPG
1.47
45.5%
Win rate
41.7%
30.3%
Draw rate
22.2%
24.2%
Loss rate
36.1%
69.7%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
24.2%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
33
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.52
Goals for per game
1.36
71.4%
Scoring rate
78.6%
49.2%
BTTS rate
52.9%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.08
69.7%
Scoring rate
69.4%
54.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
3.17
Goals for per game
0.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
63
History Matches
70
1.52
Goals Mean
1.36
1.34
Goals Std
1.10
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
78.6%
49.2%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
20.6%
Scored 3+ rate
11.4%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.95
Goals against per game
1.29
63.5%
Conceding rate
70.0%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.28
69.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.33
Goals against per game
1.67
33.3%
Conceding rate
83.3%
63
History Matches
70
0.95
Conceded Mean
1.29
0.92
Conceded Std
1.20
25.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.7%
4.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
70
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.74
2.11
Stability score
4.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
70
24
Lead Matches
24
79.2%
Lead Win Rate
70.8%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.78
10
Trailing Matches
22
50.0%
Non-loss rate
22.7%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
13.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.84
Rest days
80.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
45
Normal Rest History Matches
57
1.76
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.61
14
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
2.67
PPG
0.67
83.3%
Win rate
16.7%
16.7%
Draw rate
16.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
6
Current Competition Matches
6
2.67
Current Competition PPG
0.67
2.83
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.63
1.29
Portability PPG Range
1.52
47.73
Portability Score
44.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO25.67
PPG0.02
GF0.17
GA-0.33
PPG2.00
PPG0.19
PPG1.80
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate6.5%
Failed-to-score rate7.1%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches-7
Goals Mean0.17
Goals Std0.25
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate9.2%
Scored 3+ rate9.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std1.32
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.28
Clean-sheet rate6.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.63
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score-1.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.78
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate27.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.83
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.23
Portability Score3.36
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.17
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.04
Current Team ELO25.67
Current Opponent ELO-25.67
Current ELO Difference51.34
Expected score0.07
History Matches-7
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cleethorpes Town

W
Lancaster City0–2Cleethorpes Town7 Nov · away
Pick: Cleethorpes Town 49% · hit
W
Cleethorpes Town1–0Avro31 Oct · home
Pick: Cleethorpes Town 54% · hit
L
Workington3–2Cleethorpes Town27 Oct · away
Pick: Cleethorpes Town 41% · missed
L
Guiseley AFC2–1Cleethorpes Town20 Oct · away
Pick: Cleethorpes Town 43% · missed
W
Cleethorpes Town1–0Hyde United6 Oct · home
Pick: Cleethorpes Town 63% · hit

Stockton Town

L
Stockton Town0–1Curzon Ashton7 Nov · home
Pick: Stockton Town 39% · missed
W
Whitby Town0–5Stockton Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Stockton Town 47% · hit
L
Stockton Town1–3AFC Emley17 Oct · home
Pick: Stockton Town 50% · missed
L
Lancaster City1–0Stockton Town13 Oct · away
Pick: Lancaster City 41% · hit
W
Stockton Town1–0Bury6 Oct · home
Pick: Bury 39% · missed

About this match

Cleethorpes Town and Stockton Town meet in Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Cleethorpes Town win 60.5%, draw 20.6%, Stockton Town win 18.9%. The pick is Cleethorpes Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.6%. Both teams to score: 48.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.